Brexit (article 50) and currency

stroudjames

Hi all,

Apologies in advance, as I'm sure that this is going to be an impossible question to answer.

Following the announcement of Brexit the pound-US dollar exchange rate dropped massively. It is looking like Article 50 is going to be triggered before the end of March 2017.

My wife and I are going to the states in May (2017) and I was wondering about the effect of triggering Article 50 on the exchange rate.

I was wondering whether to load up on dollars prior to Article 50 being triggered, or wait until after the announcement.

Like I say, I know it is impossible to say, but any advice would be great.

Thanks

James

richardw

What if Trump is likely to be impeached or not, should you add this probability into your formula?

In the meantime watch the House of Lords art 50 debates on the BBC parliament channel and see if there are any spikes in the exchange rate changes.

ThinkingOutLoud_2

Not sure anyone can call that. There are too many unknowns - this being a new era with a never done before act and a new president whose tweets cause market volatility, let alone his policies.

Apparently most "models" predict a weakening pound - but then are the models good for the new world.

You could hedge your bets and convert half before and half after.

VinnyC

Too many unknowns to make a call, who knows .. pound could strengthen after Article 50 due to more certainty in the UK markets, but could go the other way if what is agreed isn't as good as expected!

eDicky

stroudjames wrote: »

I was wondering about the effect of triggering Article 50 on the exchange rate.

Powered by the referendum result and democratic principles this event is a certainty, so its influence on the value of the pound is already in effect. It is unexpected events that cause sudden exchange rate fluctuations, such as the astonishing British vote for self-harm in the eyes of the world that caused the pound to plummet immediately.

stroudjames

Thanks everyone. I thought there would be too many uncertainties. I will probably keep an eye out for any peaks over the next few weeks and then buy half now and half later.

photome

Have you got one of the best cards for using abroad ie a Clarity CC at least that way you get the best rate on the day when using in an ATM

thats what i will be doing when I am in the USA in May

PompeyPete

eDicky wrote: »

Powered by the referendum result and democratic principles this event is a certainty, so its influence on the value of the pound is already in effect. It is unexpected events that cause sudden exchange rate fluctuations, such as the astonishing British vote for self-harm in the eyes of the world that caused the pound to plummet immediately.

Do you mean Project Doom.....and all the calamatous predictions by so-called experts like the Gov of the BoE, which never happened, but nevertheless drove the £ down?

eDicky

PompeyPete wrote: »

Do you mean Project Doom.....and all the calamatous predictions by so-called experts like the Gov of the BoE, which never happened, but nevertheless drove the £ down?

No I don't. As I said, "In the eyes of the world". The forex market is global.

benjus

PompeyPete wrote: »

Do you mean Project Doom.....and all the calamatous predictions by so-called experts like the Gov of the BoE, which never happened, but nevertheless drove the £ down?

Most Brexit supporters I know are saying that the £ was always overvalued and it's just finding its "true" level (whatever that means). Whether or not they were saying that before the referendum I have no idea.

Voyager2002

benjus wrote: »

Most Brexit supporters I know are saying that the £ was always overvalued and it's just finding its "true" level (whatever that means). Whether or not they were saying that before the referendum I have no idea.

Well, as a Remain supporter I have no doubt that the pound was overvalued. I suspect that it still is.