Electric cars

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

<raises eyebrows>
Let's put the context back in, shall we?

Did Martyn's claimed 5,000 cars total by year end happen? No.
Did they increase December's production to 4,300 cars? No.
Did they even hit one single full 1,000 car week? No.
Did they hit that 12-fold increase in production between November's 345 cars and December's 2,425? No. I make it a dog-end over 7x.

So let's go back to that "is it likely?" - it looks a lot like the answer was... No, it wasn't likely.

Apology accepted. Oh, wait a sec...

Yes, they're claiming it's possible. They claim a lot of things are possible.

They claimed they'd have built 100k cars by the end of 2017. Was that possible? No.
They claimed 5k cars per week by the end of 2017. Was that possible? No.
They claimed 5k cars per week by March? Is that possible? They're now saying "H2".
They claim 10k cars per week. Is that possible? They're refusing to even guesstimate when.

Well, quite.

Hi

I take it that you have an issue because you've paid a deposit and are on the waiting list & the idea of waiting a couple more months is upsetting your otherwise calm & allure nature? ... ... if not I can't really see why you continue to wind yourself and others up, it's not good for your blood pressure and just serves to make most people simply ignore any of the decent contribution which you may occasionally make ... (wood, trees etc) ... :shhh:

EVs are coming down the road, including ones made by Tesla ... we live in what most people would almost consider as being 'the sticks', yet I could get out of my seat and walk to a couple of houses with Tesla EVs within 5 minutes, with other marques much nearer ... that's the reality now & it's only going to become more real as time passes ..

Mrs Z, having driven E-Types, Discoverys etc, has now moved to hybrids with EV mode ... :eek: ... next?, well, like many others, that's likely to be full EV when the price/range ratio suits.

HTH
Z

AdrianC

And that, children, is as near as we're likely to get to either Z or Martyn agreeing that perhaps I am right and apologising...

BTW, at the op of this page, you draw parallels with Nissan Sunderland. They're aiming at 600k cars/year there, 12k/week, only just over Tesla's claims for full-scale 3 production. That's the single highest-production car factory that there's EVER been in the UK by a factor of 50%. You can see the source of my scepticism from that, I hope...?

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Now where did I say that?

You said it here:-

AdrianC wrote: »

As for the semi "test drives", I've not found a video of anything beyond https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1afVsM-rnk and the like.

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

And that, children, is as near as we're likely to get to either Z or Martyn agreeing that perhaps I am right and apologising...

Hiya. Just to be clear, neither of us was right, I said it could be nearer 5,000, whilst you suggested 1,000, and the actual number was ~2,500.

Plus, as I've mentioned before the issue is irrelevant, nobody but you would judge a car, nor carmaker purely on their initial production figures v's their earlier anticipated numbers. Had Tesla stated that they hoped to hit 1,000 cars/week by end of Q1 2018, then by your rationale they would be the best company on the planet as they beat that figure early.

You seem desperate for some sort of validation, but continually posting false, misleading, or unnecessarily negative claims as 'facts' will always come back to bite you.

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

So to be clear, you post a vid showing one of the truck runs with guests inside (there was a long queue for both the truck and Roadster), still claim to be unaware of any test drives on the night?

Martyn1981 wrote: »

AdrianC wrote: »

Now where did I say that?

You said it here:-

AdrianC wrote: »

As for the semi "test drives", I've not found a video of anything beyond https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1afVsM-rnk and the like. Perhaps you could oblige with something more convincing?

Basic English comprehension isn't high on your skill set, is it?

Let me be a bit clearer... That does not say that I doubt that any "test drives" took place, merely that I found that short clip unconvincing to dispel my firm belief that the "Tesla Semi" present at the launch was anything but a very early-stage mock-up of very, very limited capability, rather than any kind of viable prototype.

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Hiya. Just to be clear, neither of us was right, I said it could be nearer 5,000, whilst you suggested 1,000, and the actual number was ~2,500.

So who was closer...?

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Basic English comprehension isn't high on your skill set, is it?

Let me be a bit clearer... That does not say that I doubt that any "test drives" took place, merely that I found that short clip unconvincing to dispel my firm belief that the "Tesla Semi" present at the launch was anything but a very early-stage mock-up of very, very limited capability, rather than any kind of viable prototype.

You appear to be in denial, you have challenged the claim I made that test drives took place, whilst posting a link to a vid of a test drive, and suggesting you've seen others.

So back to the start, your claim was:-

AdrianC wrote: »

<chuckle> You really believe they're anything other than a styling mock-up that's more-or-less self-propelled across a stage? Pull the other one. You're almost as addicted to St Elon's Kool-Aid as Martyn.

So do you stand by your claim that they are only a mock up that can 'more or less' self propel itself across a stage?

Edit - BTW, why do you and Joe Horner feel the need to keep throwing in insults?

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

And that, children, is as near as we're likely to get to either Z or Martyn agreeing that perhaps I am right and apologising...

BTW, at the op of this page, you draw parallels with Nissan Sunderland. They're aiming at 600k cars/year there, 12k/week, only just over Tesla's claims for full-scale 3 production. That's the single highest-production car factory that there's EVER been in the UK by a factor of 50%. You can see the source of my scepticism from that, I hope...?

Hi

And the relevance of that becomes what when their EV production moves up from current ~10% levels towards the Government's zero pure ICE target in just a few decades? ... 100% of 600k is what number in everyday terms?

What you seem to be saying now is that the Tesla production over three or four platforms is impossible because the Sunderland plant builds a similar number of vehicles over a similar number of platforms ... great logic! ... :wall::whistle:

HTH
Z

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

So do you stand by your claim that they are only a mock up that can 'more or less' self propel itself across a stage?

Well, OK. An internal stage and an external stage, aka a car park.

zeupater wrote: »

What you seem to be saying now is that the Tesla production over three or four platforms is impossible because the Sunderland plant builds a similar number of vehicles over a similar number of platforms ... great logic!

No, I'm saying that for a company with no experience of large-scale manufacturing to go from ground zero to production outputs right up with the largest plants in the world is nowhere near as simple as Elon seems to have expected. Well, there's a surprise. They've reached 100k cars/year across two factories in six years. That's not bad going - it just shows what's possible with massive amounts of money thrown at a well-understood problem, especially when you're taking over an existing GM/Toyota plant as a starting point for the first, while the second is only final-assembly.

But ramping that to 500k in one new location? BIG difference...

And that's before we consider the apparently industry-leading levels of automation being talked about. It'd be more of a surprise if there weren't serious teething problems. Denying their existence is fairly pointless - not even Tesla themselves deny they have serious issues getting 3 production up and kicking. That's why they were laying people off a few months ago.

For a manufacturer, 500k cars/year isn't that large - Jaguar Land-Rover, rather than VAG or Toyota. 500k cars/year from a single factory, though... Like I said - we're only just seeing that for the first time ever in the UK now, with Sunderland - 400k was the largest before. VW Wolfsburg is 800k/year.

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

Well, OK. An internal stage and an external stage, aka a car park.

No, I'm saying that for a company with no experience of large-scale manufacturing to go from ground zero to production outputs right up with the largest plants in the world is nowhere near as simple as Elon seems to have expected. Well, there's a surprise. They've reached 100k cars/year across two factories in six years. That's not bad going - it just shows what's possible with massive amounts of money thrown at a well-understood problem, especially when you're taking over an existing GM/Toyota plant as a starting point for the first, while the second is only final-assembly.

But ramping that to 500k in one new location? BIG difference...

And that's before we consider the apparently industry-leading levels of automation being talked about. It'd be more of a surprise if there weren't serious teething problems. Denying their existence is fairly pointless - not even Tesla themselves deny they have serious issues getting 3 production up and kicking. That's why they were laying people off a few months ago.

For a manufacturer, 500k cars/year isn't that large - Jaguar Land-Rover, rather than VAG or Toyota. 500k cars/year from a single factory, though... Like I said - we're only just seeing that for the first time ever in the UK now, with Sunderland - 400k was the largest before. VW Wolfsburg is 800k/year.

Hi

I think you're missing the point ....

Musk seems to be using Tesla to kick-start interest in the EV sector, and they're certainly doing that. No-one, including Tesla themselves, has said that they'll be building anywhere near as many EVs as VW or Toyota currently do vehicles with ICEs, and that's almost a certainty unless all current manufacturers simply bury their heads in the sand and pretend that all will be the same and EVs will go away, if so then things will certainly be interesting! ...

The problem Tesla have is that they're not only standing up to the automotive industry, the vast global petrochemical corporations looking to protect their future revenue streams and the associated energy supply industry who have provided more than a little resistance to the provision of national supply-point networks (as previously seen with LPG/hydrogen etc) on capital investment grounds, but also the reticent positions of governments which see hydrocarbon based fuels as a readily taxable commodity, using environmentalism as a thinly veiled excuse. All of this explains why Tesla have needed to divert focus towards home accumulation/storage & national fast charging networks, but they seem to be beating the odds and causing enough of a stir to have had a major impact on political thinking - enough to drive massive change in government transport policies and the manufacturing strategies of companies across the globe ...

For a relatively small company, their impact has been huge, with Elon Musk possibly acting as the largest catalyst to change of anyone connected to the automotive sector since Henry Ford, even if I tend to agree with many that AI should have been left on the shelf at this stage in the EV development story!

HTH
Z

AdrianC

zeupater wrote: »

I think you're missing the point ....

I don't think I am, y'know. But we'll come back to that.

Musk seems to be using Tesla to kick-start interest in the EV sector, and they're certainly doing that.

No argument there.

No-one, including Tesla themselves, has said that they'll be building anywhere near as many EVs as VW or Toyota currently do vehicles with ICEs

My point about production volumes has nothing to do with EV vs ICE. That's not Tesla's production problem.

The problem Tesla have is that they're not only standing up to the automotive industry, the vast global petrochemical corporations looking to protect their future revenue streams and the associated energy supply industry who have provided more than a little resistance to the provision of national supply-point networks (as previously seen with LPG/hydrogen etc) on capital investment grounds, but also the reticent positions of governments which see hydrocarbon based fuels as a readily taxable commodity, using environmentalism as a thinly veiled excuse.

That starts to read a lot like a conspiracy theory, y'know... One that forget that Tesla are in bed with Mercedes, and have been in receipt of a MAHOOOOOSIVE amount of US government grant, while governments elsewhere are providing customer subsidies hand-over-fist. Just look at why Teslas sell so well in... Norway, a country with a huge sovereign wealth fund from... oil.

For a relatively small company, their impact has been huge

Again, I agree - to a point.

with Elon Musk possibly acting as the largest catalyst to change of anyone connected to the automotive sector since Henry Ford

Hmmm...

even if I tend to agree with many that AI should have been left on the shelf at this stage in the EV development story!

The toys and fripperies are a large part of what's made Tesla what they are. Geeks are their prime customer base. Even without the autonomy, they've gone too far with guff like the X rear doors.

Now, getting back to the point-missing. I think you're missing my points. We can view Tesla in two ways.

1. An interesting market disruptor. Yes, they are that - but I really don't think we'd be far from the current situation without Tesla.
2. Some kind of total new way of looking at the automotive industry, with a product that simply walks on water. And that's where I'm coming from here.

The S is surprisingly good, especially given the only predecessor was an Elise with an engine swap. But, of course, that's different to the individuals on the dev team being neophytes - there was a lot of established technology went into the platform, and a lot of experienced people hired. What it ISN'T is some kind of utter tech disruptor in and of itself - it's not much more than an awful lot of utterly generic cells with some relatively generic motors. Mitsubishi and others were doing things with hub motors over a decade ago - look at the Lancer Evo MiEV back in 2005. There's still no battery breakthrough - the 2170 cell is just a repackage of the same chemistry as the utterly generic 18650, made possible by the scale and the Panasonic partnership. And this is just looking at Tesla's home territory. Put it up against the established competition and look objectively at their home territory - the minor details like build quality - and it comes up wanting. But most Tesla buyers are happy to overlook that... currently.

What Tesla and their cheerleaders don't seem to appreciate is that they need to start to be taken seriously as car manufacturers. They've proven that there's a market - and that market is going to very quickly become busy with properly developed mainstream competition, simply because the likes of VAG and Toyota don't really want to watch their business dwindle. Strange that...

Half a million sales a year might not be threatening the big boys very hard, but it is going to be very hard for Tesla to maintain once the initial geek-chic gloss wanes. And unless they get the production problems addressed VERY soon, those half-million deposits are going to start wandering - it's one thing being able to leave the glossies prominently on your desk to show your geek-creds, but a set of keys would be very nice indeed. Elon Musk does not want to be Henry Ford. He's going to start getting very bored quite soon - and Tesla is Elon Musk.

Being in zealous denial about those very real issues, and simply waving yet more shiny vapourware, helps nobody - certainly not Tesla.

Then there's the issues facing EV adoption as a whole - and, for Joe Public, they all come back to range anxiety, real or perceived. Again, being in zealous denial helps nobody. The infrastructural issues that will come with widespread adoption fall into the out-of-sight-out-of-mind basket for Joe Public.