Electric cars

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  • zeupater
    zeupater Posts: 5,355 Forumite
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    AdrianC wrote: »
    Woah, hold on one sec... What was it Disraeli allegedly said about statistics?

    Those figures not only include hybrids, but hybrids are 71% of them... So EV-only sales are just 0.6%, or just over 4,000 cars - yes, it's an increase, but it's a bit of a stretch to say "ditching petrol and diesel".

    Oh, and the increase in market share? That's definitely not hurt by the total market contracting by 12.4%, from a very high point last year.
    https://www.best-selling-cars.com/britain-uk/2018-q1-britain-best-selling-car-brands-and-models/
    Hi

    Hybrid, or plug in hybrid? ... there's a difference!

    Anyway, whichever, it's likely pretty good news in terms of emissions, so no need for doom & gloom ....

    By the way, an 11% rise in sales volume is an 11% rise in sales volume no matter what size the overall market ... it's also relevant to note that the 11% increase on volume happened at the same time as the automotive market sector contracting by the 12.4% raised in the referenced post therefore the consideration should be ((111)/(87.6)), describing the EV/Hybrid sector outperforming the whole by 26.7% ...

    .... so thanks for the interjection to help correct the relative performance of the electrified vehicle market segment, it was much appreciated ... don't you just love statistics! ... :D

    HTH
    Z
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    B)
  • AdrianC
    AdrianC Posts: 42,189 Forumite
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    zeupater wrote: »
    Hybrid, or plug in hybrid? ... there's a difference!
    Yes, there is.

    One has an IC and a battery.
    The other has an IC, a slightly bigger battery, and a mains cable.


    So neither's exactly contributing to the death of IC, is it?

    By the way, an 11% rise in sales volume is an 11% rise in sales volume no matter what size the overall market ...
    Yes, it is. But it's not the 33% rise that's implied in a market share rise from 1.5% to 2%.
  • zeupater
    zeupater Posts: 5,355 Forumite
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    AdrianC wrote: »
    Yes, there is.

    One has an IC and a battery.
    The other has an IC, a slightly bigger battery, and a mains cable.


    So neither's exactly contributing to the death of IC, is it?



    Yes, it is. But it's not the 33% rise that's implied in a market share rise from 1.5% to 2%.
    Hi

    Within an acceptable tolerance it is significant ...

    Taking the declared variables ...

    - EV/Hybrid sales ... 14084
    - EV/Hybrid sales increase ... 11%
    - % share ... 2%
    - Market contraction ... 12.4%

    We can deduce (within an acceptable rounding tolerance)
    - Market 2018Q1 = 704,200(14084/0.02)
    - Market 2017Q1 = 803,881 (704200/0.876)
    - EV/Hybrid Sales 2017Q1 - 12688 (14084/1.11)

    -EV/Hybrid Share 2017Q1 1.58% (12688/803881)

    Rise in market share 26.6% (2/1.58) ...

    But no-one claimed 33%, but if they did, they'd be close enough ... anyway - isn't it strange that the 26.6% that was just calculated is pretty close to the result in this other relative performance calculation ...
    ... it's also relevant to note that the 11% increase on volume happened at the same time as the automotive market sector contracting by the 12.4% raised in the referenced post therefore the consideration should be ((111)/(87.6)), describing the EV/Hybrid sector outperforming the whole by 26.7% ...
    ... no, not strange really, just two logical approaches with the same conclusion ... electrified vehicle sales are currently (2018Q1/2017Q1) outperforming the overall trend in the automotive sector - whether it's by 33% or 26.7% makes absolutely no difference other than being a point of diversionary discussion in a long running anti-EV stance as both describe a significant rate of change - however, as previously mentioned the important figure is the year-on-year increase of 11% as this figure indicates that both manufacturing capacity and consumer demand are moving in the right direction ...

    HTH
    Z
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    B)
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,782 Forumite
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    AdrianC wrote: »
    Woah, hold on one sec... What was it Disraeli allegedly said about statistics?

    Those figures not only include hybrids, but hybrids are 71% of them... So EV-only sales are just 0.6%, or just over 4,000 cars - yes, it's an increase, but it's a bit of a stretch to say "ditching petrol and diesel".

    Oh, and the increase in market share? That's definitely not hurt by the total market contracting by 12.4%, from a very high point last year.
    https://www.best-selling-cars.com/britain-uk/2018-q1-britain-best-selling-car-brands-and-models/

    You seem to be conflating issues (wrongly) in order to reach some false negative spin.

    A contraction of overall car sales is actually an additional boost to the EV adoption argument as it counters the overall trend.

    Speaking of trends, that's what you should be looking at, not the overall sales percentages. The trends show that EV sales continue to rise, whilst ICE sales continue to contract.

    From there we can safely draw some conclusions - EV costs are falling, which will increase demand/sales - this will drive up supply, and drive down costs - this will result in increased demand and sales.

    Concern over deployments of 1% or 2% are old arguments that I saw coming up all the time regarding wind and PV, but those criticising technologies on the grounds that 'they are small' seem to miss the fact that every new thing starts off small (obviously) so it's the market trends that matter, and I believe (only my opinion) that once a technology breaches the 1% or 2% mark, then it is simply too big to lose if (IF) it has a market advantage, and EV's do since they are already cheaper to run than ICE's on a whole cost basis.

    With regard to hybrid's, I see them as a necessary addition, as they will help people to learn, and move to EV's in the long run. And hopefully many of those buying plug-in hybrids will be surprised just how much of their annual mileage is electric, again encouraging a move to an EV with an appropriate battery capacity.

    Hard to spin a negative, other than that I'd like to see things move faster, but we need more EV's being built. Perhaps Tesla will hit 6,000 M3's per week by the summer, and Europe (with UK RHD a bit later) will start to see deliveries next year.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW). Two A2A units for cleaner heating.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,782 Forumite
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    AdrianC wrote: »
    Yes, there is.

    One has an IC and a battery.
    The other has an IC, a slightly bigger battery, and a mains cable.


    So neither's exactly contributing to the death of IC, is it?

    That's not true, at all. Both have contributed to the death of ICE's.

    The early hybrids such as the Prius and Insight proved the battery technology, in fact batts quickly developed to out perform all expectations.

    Then plug-in hybrids have shown people just how much mileage can be electrified, have shown people what an electric motor can door, have helped to increase the scale of batts and thereby reduce prices for full EV's.

    So hybrid's have been, and continue to be nails in the coffin of ICE's. They may not kill off ICE, but they certainly contribute but being part of the 'journey' that leads to ICE killers.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW). Two A2A units for cleaner heating.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • custardy
    custardy Posts: 38,365 Forumite
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    Saw a Nissan Leaf taxi the other day. Seemed a strange choice?
    Woulds have though limited range and charging times would hit the fuel saving benefit?
  • AdrianC
    AdrianC Posts: 42,189 Forumite
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    Martyn1981 wrote: »
    That's not true, at all. Both have contributed to the death of ICE's.


    So hybrid's have been, and continue to be nails in the coffin of ICE's.
    Yet 99.4% of new cars sold in the UK in Q1 2018 still have ICEs.


    Some death.
  • NBLondon
    NBLondon Posts: 5,533 Forumite
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    custardy wrote: »
    Saw a Nissan Leaf taxi the other day. Seemed a strange choice?
    Woulds have though limited range and charging times would hit the fuel saving benefit?
    Where was it? If all the journeys are short hops in a city centre and they have access to quick charge points while the driver has a lunch break it might work. Airport runs might be harder. Wonder if we'll get to the point of chargers at taxi ranks?
    Wash your Knobs and Knockers... Keep the Postie safe!
  • Stageshoot
    Stageshoot Posts: 592 Forumite
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    custardy wrote: »
    Saw a Nissan Leaf taxi the other day. Seemed a strange choice?
    Woulds have though limited range and charging times would hit the fuel saving benefit?

    Why an odd choice ? 100 to 120 Mile range 20 mins to recharge on a rapid, fuel costs of over 90% less than an ICE.. Ideal taxi. Just look at Blackpool Massive feet of Nissan Leaf Taxis and Nissan 200 EV 7 Seat Van Taxis.
    Over 100k miles of Electric Motoring and rising,
  • Stageshoot
    Stageshoot Posts: 592 Forumite
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    NBLondon wrote: »
    Where was it? If all the journeys are short hops in a city centre and they have access to quick charge points while the driver has a lunch break it might work. Airport runs might be harder. Wonder if we'll get to the point of chargers at taxi ranks?

    TFL Are already installing Taxi only rapid chargers at specific locations around London inside the M25 for the new Electric Black Cabs.
    Over 100k miles of Electric Motoring and rising,
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