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Electric cars

in Motoring
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  • edited 20 March 2018 at 8:24PM
    zeupaterzeupater Forumite
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    edited 20 March 2018 at 8:24PM
    Deastons wrote: »
    But as demand for oil reduces so will the price.

    I think petrol and diesel will be the dominating fuel for another decade at least.
    Hi

    At the recent sub $50/barrel the oil producers were starting to hurt, even Saudi Arabia was suffering & their production costs are comparatively low, therefore it must be understood that there's a floor price below which it becomes uneconomical to supply.

    Governments all over the world are committed to the Paris climate accord, so it would be pretty naive to not expect them to pull the levers which they have to ensure that they achieve what they want to achieve ... carbon has a cost, so carbon will have to be paid for at a level that encourages change.

    At the moment, taxation on fuel based carbon is set at a level which doesn't hurt the majority of voting consumers or the economy too much as there's currently no alternative, but with the advent of the electrification of vehicles the alternative has been (/is being) created ... so how would a reasonable person expect the government to encourage a rapid changeover to EVs - subsidise the mass purchase of vehicles using vast amounts of public money? -or- pulling the hydrocarbon tax lever as hard as it allows? .... given the options I'd certainly not expect pump prices to fall, no matter how low the cost of oil production at the well-head reduces!

    As for the point raised - 'petrol and diesel will be the dominating fuel for another decade at least.' - of course, that's a pretty safe bet simply based on the number of vehicles on the road and the ability of the manufactures to respond ... starting today you simply couldn't build enough EVs to replace over half of the vehicles on the road within the next decade ... I'm all for setting ambitious targets, but there must be some attempt at realism involved!

    HTH
    Z
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    B)
  • silverwhistlesilverwhistle Forumite
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    bugslet wrote: »
    I've no real likes or dislikes about electric, it's whatever it is, but at the moment I'd want an 800 mile range.

    Given speeds and drivers' available hours how big an issue would a shorter range be? I suspect you'd like more lay-up (and recharge) areas, which we seem to lack compared with my continental driving experiences.
    The people who would probably be most affected by loss of weight are the bulk carriers, grain, liquids, cement, that kind of thing.

    I'd imagine for them range isn't so critical? Certainly those are the sorts of loads that shouldn't be doing long ranges in road vehicles.

    For all the talk about electrifying road transport we can't even get major rail routes electrified in the UK, given our goverment's lack of political will.
  • ElefantEdElefantEd Forumite
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    Personally I don't think hybrids are long for this world. They are a stepping stone at best, with the best characteristics of neither an all electric nor an all ICE vehicle. Apart from anything else, they have to lug around two motors and have the costs of installing and maintaining them to consider. The comparison needs to be EV vs ICE and I think the pendulum is swinging, and will continue to swing towards EVs. Economics alone will make this a certainty - electricity is approx 20% of petrol costs, and comparable cars don't seem to be vastly different in price, if at all (though I hasten to add that my research on this has been skimpy).
  • Car_54Car_54 Forumite
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    ElefantEd wrote: »
    Personally I don't think hybrids are long for this world. They are a stepping stone at best, with the best characteristics of neither an all electric nor an all ICE vehicle. Apart from anything else, they have to lug around two motors and have the costs of installing and maintaining them to consider. The comparison needs to be EV vs ICE and I think the pendulum is swinging, and will continue to swing towards EVs. Economics alone will make this a certainty - electricity is approx 20% of petrol costs, and comparable cars don't seem to be vastly different in price, if at all (though I hasten to add that my research on this has been skimpy).

    Has your research looked at the prices without tax?
  • HerzlosHerzlos Forumite
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    Deastons wrote: »
    But as demand for oil reduces so will the price.

    I think petrol and diesel will be the dominating fuel for another decade at least.

    When demand drops production drops to try and keep the price up.
    You Also lose some economies of scale savings down the supply chain.
  • HerzlosHerzlos Forumite
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    Indout96 wrote: »
    My diesel is £0.00 tax - I don't live in London so no congestion charge so the only real change would be fuel and I already average well over 40 mpg (60 mpg average on motorway runs) so not going to be much of a saving.
    Then knock off the cost of charging point installed at house (x2) as two cars from that saving and looks like a loss to me


    Then when we are all on electric watch the price to charge soar (no more 1/2 price diesel when they became popular)

    £0 tax for now, but the new tax regime means your next one probably won't be.
    Not living in London skews the trade off significantly though;

    You do raise a new issue; how do we cope with charging multi car households?
  • edited 21 March 2018 at 9:31AM
    AnotherJoeAnotherJoe Forumite
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    edited 21 March 2018 at 9:31AM
    Indout96 wrote: »
    My diesel is £0.00 tax - I don't live in London so no congestion charge so the only real change would be fuel and I already average well over 40 mpg (60 mpg average on motorway runs) so not going to be much of a saving.

    My electric car costs me 25p a litre equivalent. A decent saving for what you pay I'd have thought unless you do very few miles. (If i was on E7 it would be about 10p a litre equivalent)
    Tax of zero wont happen for new diesels. You may keep your old but over time the additional maintenance especially on a diesel will far exceed that.
    Indout96 wrote: »
    Then knock off the cost of charging point installed at house (x2) as two cars from that saving and looks like a loss to me

    My charge point cost £99 to install.
    You wont need two charging points unless you do such high mileage that both need a full overnight charge every night in which case the fuel savings would be massive.
    A second one would cost maybe £500 but if you actually need a second one and its not just for convenience you'd recoup that in a few months.
    (people who dont have electric cars seem to assume they would charge every single day. I charged last night, last time was in the middle of last week. Even for someone with an average commute its going to be every 2 or 3 days, wont take much juggling in most 2 car households to only need one charger.)
    Indout96 wrote: »
    Then when we are all on electric watch the price to charge soar (no more 1/2 price diesel when they became popular)

    Very different situation. With diesel they could easily ramp up the tax as there was a single source of supply and it only had one use, running cars. That cant be done with electricity because the vast majority is used for other things.
    The solution long term to the loss of fuel duty is likely to be road pricing of some type, that's probably 20 years off and in the meantime I'll continue paying 25p a litre :D
  • NigeWickNigeWick Forumite
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    Deastons wrote: »
    But as demand for oil reduces so will the price.

    I think petrol and diesel will be the dominating fuel for another decade at least.
    Think about this:- Many vehicles are leased. As electric vehicles take hold in a few years, because they are cheaper to buy outright, how much will it cost to lease a fossil burner for two or three years?

    The price of fossil fuels will not go below the cost of production, refining and transportation. The cost of renewable energy is continuing to drop. In fact, it is likely that locally generated electricity and storage will cost less than the price of grid transmission in just a few years. I can afford to be an early adopter and my solar plus battery will have paid for themselves in roughly another six or seven years.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
  • ElefantEdElefantEd Forumite
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    Our Leaf costs us about 2p/mile to run. Actually a bit less, as some of the time we're recharging on free electricity at rapids etc, but at some point that will change. We do about 25000 miles a year, so total running costs are £500/year. Maintenance is also cheap (brake pads, tyres and wipers are the only things we've ever had to change, oh and a new 12V battery after about 4 years) and the engine is a lot simpler and seems highly reliable (touch wood). Road tax is £0, our charging point cost £0 (we are lucky that we live in Scotland). Even the insurance is quite cheap.

    You don't get very much petrol or diesel for £500!
  • bugsletbugslet Forumite
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    Given speeds and drivers' available hours how big an issue would a shorter range be? I suspect you'd like more lay-up (and recharge) areas, which we seem to lack compared with my continental driving experiences.



    I'd imagine for them range isn't so critical? Certainly those are the sorts of loads that shouldn't be doing long ranges in road vehicles.

    l.

    We double man a lot of our vehicles and the driving time non-stop is 21 hours, though we probably only do that a couple of times a year. Those double manned Waberer trucks will be maxing the hours though:eek:

    We have one run which takes 23 hours and we stage crews mid way along the run at hotels as we aren't allowed to stop. Other moves are limited to very specific staging places. So I'd be looking at a range of at least 800 miles

    If I was in general haulage though, then around 400 miles would be OK. If I was a major haulier trunking between depots, then I'd have charging points on site and a range of around 200 miles or less would be adequate.

    There's never a definitive answer in haulage!

    I'm not a bulk carrier, but no I don't believe distance would be as critical, you don't see many bulk carriers heading in and out of Europe. They will be doing everything they can to minimise the weight however.
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