is it a Crashy wind up ?

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

noddynoo wrote: »

I work in property Have done for 14 years There is a definite shift happening Nothing selling at all from before Xmas either in fact post April SD changes it dropped significantly and after June 23rd volumes fell further. I am not deluded at all. I have bought and sold 17 houses and renovated them and whether it falls or rises doesn;t really bother me but I am just reporting here what I am seeing. If you are thinking of cashing in its too late

Brilliant bit of anecdotal evidence. I prefer to.use the facts and figures produced by those keeping the records. But each to their own. I'm in my forever home so no, definitely not cashing in.

It's lucky that you know the property market for the whole country. Would have expected you to have bought more properties though tbh.

Your last post from yesterday seemed to indicate that you are currently renting.... What happened to all those properties. I think you may be posting what you want to happen rather what is actually happening.

I also see that you are trying to time the market. Good luck with that......

noddynoo wrote: »

I am in the SE and house prices are definitely falling and nothing shifting regardless. Hopefully there will be some sanity in the market now that BTL have had some tax modifications/increases.I am receiving calls from agents daily atm but won;t buy now on advice of friend who is a surveyor until late next year

padington

Who's his friend ? Big ears?

westernpromise

I love surveyors, I really do. Every time I have bought somewhere the surveyor has said I am paying too much but when ask them to point me towards some correctly priced properties that I can buy instead, they never seem to be able to.

It's almost as though they're deliberately undervaluing these properties so that if I default on the mortgage the lender can flog it off below market value for a quick sale and point to the surveyor's valuation as proof they sold it for a fair price. But I am certain that could never happen. After all, I am paying for the survey, so they'd never do me over, would they?

PeterPanic

padington wrote: »

Quite from HPC ...

2 hours ago, GreenDevil said:

'Just reviewed Rightmove and PropertyBee for my local area. Grim reading, everything that was sticking before xmas is now under offer. Stuff selling at previous crazy fantasy prices.

I cant believe that December prices have taken another leg up. Crazy.

Is there a need for a housepricecrash web site any more?'

I have been reading the housepricecrash website on and off for the last 13 years or so, which was around the time I bought my first property. I must admit, their arguments make a lot of sense and it is almost like a cult where if you read enough of their posts you will be convinced it is going to happen. There was a point when we sold our first property that I toyed with the idea of going into rented as I was so convinced prices would crash due to this website. Thank god I didn't in the end.

In those 13 years house prices in my area have tripled.

After my divorce I have ended up with a 50% deposit and I had an offer on a property accepted before Christmas. To me the market seemed dead and I was convinced prices were going to fall but found the right house in the right area at what I thought was a fair price. I work with a guy who has been telling me that the crash is coming for the last two years, he thinks I am crazy buying a house but it has got to the point where I want to own property so I can just stop thinking about it all the time. He could have bought a house a couple of years ago but didn't as he didn't want to stretch himself, he is now very angry and still refuses to buy he is so convinced it has to crash. He now cannot afford to but the house he could have bought two years ago.

I have been looking for the last six months or so and have noticed in the last few days that lots of properties that I have looked at in that time have suddenly SSTC. It has now got to the point where there are no decent three bedroom properties left, even the ones that have been for sale for months have now sold.

If the Halifax is to be believed the house I have offered on has gone up £5.5k in value since I offered last month.

The whole situation is crazy and I agree everything screams crash but it has been like that for the last 15 years or so and yet it doesn't happen. I think the best thing to do is to buy if you can and just get on with your life.

chucknorris

PeterPanic wrote: »

The whole situation is crazy and I agree everything screams crash but it has been like that for the last 15 years or so and yet it doesn't happen. I think the best thing to do is to buy if you can and just get on with your life.

If you are buying a home to live in definitely, even if you are buying investment property, because property is illiquid, a long term view should be taken, and compare it to other assets, like shares, they too crash and recover. If you are going to hold property for 25-30 years you should expect to see it crash. IMO income is the main consideration, rather than capital gain.

chucknorris

westernpromise wrote: »

I love surveyors, I really do. Every time I have bought somewhere the surveyor has said I am paying too much but when ask them to point me towards some correctly priced properties that I can buy instead, they never seem to be able to.

It's almost as though they're deliberately undervaluing these properties so that if I default on the mortgage the lender can flog it off below market value for a quick sale and point to the surveyor's valuation as proof they sold it for a fair price. But I am certain that could never happen. After all, I am paying for the survey, so they'd never do me over, would they?

The last house that we bought (in 2008), a week before exchange the Scarborough building society said that they would only lend us £130k (£64k short of what was previously agreed) because they were concerned about the surveyor's rental valuation. He said that we would only get £1,000/month, but we were working on £1,200/month. Luckily I had enough spare cash in a savings account, so I asked if they would consider the £64k as a retention on the mortgage, which could be released if we did achieve a higher rent. They agreed, and we did achieve the £1,200/month rent. We wanted the full mortgage because it was a particularly good deal, of only 0.38% over the base rate.

westernpromise

PeterPanic wrote: »

I think the best thing to do is to buy if you can and just get on with your life.

Absolutely correct IMHO.

The fear of negative equity is largely illusory really. At current low rates you pay capital down so quickly that after 5 years you have probably got rid of 15% of the debt. The problem in the 90s was that interest rates were so high, after 5 years you'd got rid of less than 3% of the debt.

westernpromise

chucknorris wrote: »

The last house that we bought (in 2008), a week before exchange the Scarborough building society said that they would only lend us £130k (£64k short of what was previously agreed) because they were concerned about the surveyor's rental valuation. He said that we would only get £1,000/month, but we were working on £1,200/month. Luckily I had enough spare cash in a savings account, so I asked if they would consider the £64k as a retention on the mortgage, which could be released if we did achieve a higher rent. They agreed, and we did achieve the £1,200/month rent. We wanted the full mortgage because it was a particularly good deal, of only 0.38% over the base rate.

My suspicion has always been that valuation surveyors get the gig because they persistently undervalue. If the going rate for a property is £250k they will say the one you're buying is only worth £200k. Then if you default a year later, so that if the lender repossesses, the lender can flog your £300k flat for £200k and use the survey you paid for as proof that they didn't sell it too cheap.

I don't know if that actually happens but I really do wonder why else lenders would be so keen on using only the surveyors they list on their valuation panels.

economic

westernpromise wrote: »

My suspicion has always been that valuation surveyors get the gig because they persistently undervalue. If the going rate for a property is £250k they will say the one you're buying is only worth £200k. Then if you default a year later, so that if the lender repossesses, the lender can flog your £300k flat for £200k and use the survey you paid for as proof that they didn't sell it too cheap.

I don't know if that actually happens but I really do wonder why else lenders would be so keen on using only the surveyors they list on their valuation panels.

i bought two properties and both times the valuation came to the agreed sale price (they never value it more then that). unless i genuinely got a good bargain i have not experienced what you are saying.

lisyloo

PeterPanic wrote: »

The whole situation is crazy and I agree everything screams crash but it has been like that for the last 15 years or so and yet it doesn't happen. I think the best thing to do is to buy if you can and just get on with your life. .

You'd be hard pushed to find anyone on here who would say there will never be a crash, but the concensus would be that
a) it's a huge risk to try to time the market for your home
b) buying a home is pretty much a no brainer long term because of implied rent (you need somewhere to live), tax free gains and gearing.


I've not done particularly well with my timing as I've been getting on with my life, but I've managed to get mortgage free at 44 (22 years) without doing anything spectacular (only some overpayments when able).