The 2017 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

caronoel

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The big global issues for the next few years will certainly include Brexit and Trump on an alarmingly regular basis - but this year may be too soon for either - It will take Trump some time to do any real damage and the worst excesses of Brexit may yet be avoided if May can negotiate a good deal around single market access.

So with the caveat that 2017 is likely to be less predictable than most years we'll give it a go anyway.

As for the predictions...

1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from +1 to +5%. This is a slower rate of growth than last year.

2. FTB numbers will fall due to Brexit induced job market uncertainty and disposable income being squeezed by inflation.

3. Inflation will rise significantly because of the Brexitary GBP devaluation - I expect a range between 1.5% and 3% for most of the year.

4. The big falls in unemployment we've seen recently will slow and may even start to reverse - likewise the picture for real terms wage growth is much gloomier thanks to increasing inflation. Best guess is a slight rise in unemployment and falls in real terms wages.

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%.

6. House building will not increase at anywhere near the rates the government has promised or the country needs to alleviate the housing crisis. If the government does not reverse the punitive BTL taxes that act as a discouragement to investment it will fall.

7. Rents will continue to increase and reach another new record high.

8. The gap between London/SE and the rest of the UK will continue to close as it did in 2016.

9. Aberdeen house prices will continue to soften a bit as they have done over the last year. The falls in Aberdeen rents are already starting to ease and should level off towards year end.

10. Economic growth will slow with GDP under 2.0% for the year

Politics:

11. If the government indicate a soft/sensible Brexit (staying in single market) and/or long term transitional deal is being targeted then the worst economic consequences of Brexit to the UK will largely be avoided. And a second Scottish Indyref will be off the table.

12. If the government indicate a hard/chaotic Brexit is being pursued then the SNP will call for Scottish Indyref 2 - and win it.

13. The UK Labour party will end the year with a different leader. (perhaps a bit of an outlier but we can live in hope!)

14. DAESH will continue trying to destabilise the West with additional terrorist attacks and attempting to start the race/religion war they so desperately want - aided and abetted by the European/UK right-wing groups that are the other side of the same coin..... Hopefully they will fail.... and decency, reason and humanity will win out over despair, hatred and division... But 2016 has taught us that cannot be guaranteed.

15. And finally the European elections - Peak Populism will pass soon enough - hopefully it's this year and we can avoid any more pointless disruption from extremists like Le Pen getting elected - but lets not count our chickens just yet..... :beer:

We are almost 6 months in to the year, and your economic forecasts are (as always)looking pretty good.... Less so for the political predictions

:rotfl:

mayonnaise

mayonnaise wrote: »

- disenfranchised, under-educated, unemployable brexit voters will still be under-educated, unemployable and disenfranchised.

Spot on mayonnaise, well done! :T

michaels

Hamish we need you to score this year and set next year's question....

A quick scan suggest you were pretty close and Viva even better.

Remainer in chief Mayo and HPC Crash Troll Crashy were more in the runners up camp (like UK state schools, we only have winners and runners up).

vivatifosi

michaels wrote: »

Hamish we need you to score this year and set next year's question....

A quick scan suggest you were pretty close and Viva even better.

Remainer in chief Mayo and HPC Crash Troll Crashy were more in the runners up camp (like UK state schools, we only have winners and runners up).

Why thank you michaels... after all these years of being off beam, I had to have a good set of predictions sooner or later. I expect to go back to my normal D- this year.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

As for the predictions...

1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from +1 to +5%. This is a slower rate of growth than last year.

Yep.

2. FTB numbers will fall due to Brexit induced job market uncertainty and disposable income being squeezed by inflation.

Unknown. The most recent data is 4-5 months old and shows FTB numbers holding up OK to the half year. Will update when the full year figures are released.

3. Inflation will rise significantly because of the Brexitary GBP devaluation - I expect a range between 1.5% and 3% for most of the year.

Yep

4. The big falls in unemployment we've seen recently will slow and may even start to reverse - likewise the picture for real terms wage growth is much gloomier thanks to increasing inflation. Best guess is a slight rise in unemployment and falls in real terms wages.

Unemployment fell through the year but has recently flattened off.

Real wages are down about 1%.

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%.

Yes.

6. House building will not increase at anywhere near the rates the government has promised or the country needs to alleviate the housing crisis. If the government does not reverse the punitive BTL taxes that act as a discouragement to investment it will fall.

Yes.

7. Rents will continue to increase and reach another new record high.

Yes.

8. The gap between London/SE and the rest of the UK will continue to close as it did in 2016.

Yes.

9. Aberdeen house prices will continue to soften a bit as they have done over the last year. The falls in Aberdeen rents are already starting to ease and should level off towards year end.

Aberdeen house prices fell just 1.1% in the last year versus 7% the previous year (Halifax).

10. Economic growth will slow with GDP under 2.0% for the year

Yes.

Politics:

11. If the government indicate a soft/sensible Brexit (staying in single market) and/or long term transitional deal is being targeted then the worst economic consequences of Brexit to the UK will largely be avoided. And a second Scottish Indyref will be off the table.

12. If the government indicate a hard/chaotic Brexit is being pursued then the SNP will call for Scottish Indyref 2 - and win it.

Looks like a long term transitional deal is being arranged.

Indyref 2 off the table for now.

13. The UK Labour party will end the year with a different leader. (perhaps a bit of an outlier but we can live in hope!)

Well that was an outlier....:D

14. DAESH will continue trying to destabilise the West with additional terrorist attacks and attempting to start the race/religion war they so desperately want - aided and abetted by the European/UK right-wing groups that are the other side of the same coin..... Hopefully they will fail.... and decency, reason and humanity will win out over despair, hatred and division... But 2016 has taught us that cannot be guaranteed.

Yes. They've had their rear ends kicked in Syria/Iraq and are lashing out in the West.

15. And finally the European elections - Peak Populism will pass soon enough - hopefully it's this year and we can avoid any more pointless disruption from extremists like Le Pen getting elected - but lets not count our chickens just yet..... :beer:

Yep.

Peak populism has passed.


Not bad for me.....

Viva did well. :beer:


I'll post the 2018 thread at some point shortly...

Filo25

Happy enough in general with my economic predictions, my political ones were way off though!

triathlon

1. Prices will flailing first 2 qtrs and then pick up again

2. Inflation this year between 3 & 5%

3. Rates will stay below 2% regardless of inflation

4. Immigration controls will be token gestures

5. Rents in 2nd half will start to rise again

6. And saddest of all. A few 100 bitter and twisted single men living in their grubby womanless bedsits will go into their 17th year screaming at the world why house prices must fall this time on HPC.com, and do it with so much sincerity and conviction

triathlon

Forgot 7

Interest only mortgage scandal will gather momentum 2018 and floodgates will open 2019

Incentive to protect homeowners 100%
Renters 0.01%

michaels

michaels wrote: »

Originally Posted by HAMISH_MCTAVISH
The big global issues for the next few years will certainly include Brexit and Trump on an alarmingly regular basis - but this year may be too soon for either - It will take Trump some time to do any real damage and the worst excesses of Brexit may yet be avoided if May can negotiate a good deal around single market access.

So with the caveat that 2017 is likely to be less predictable than most years we'll give it a go anyway.

As for the predictions...

1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from +1 to +5%. This is a slower rate of growth than last year.
Looks like London prime will fall although obviously for non gdp buyers it is already much cheaper. Elsewhere don't know - is it driven by ripple from London prime or is perhaps anything outside the home counties its own market. Strangely in these areas although OO affordability seems better btl yields are much higher.
minus 1% overall


Outline correct but too pessimistic, Nationwide is +2.5%?


2. FTB numbers will fall due to Brexit induced job market uncertainty and disposable income being squeezed by inflation.
Don't think so, btl tax will be a bigger factor


I think FTB is probably up?

3. Inflation will rise significantly because of the Brexitary GBP devaluation - I expect a range between 1.5% and 3% for most of the year.
I suspect at least 3% by year end just from gbp depreciation, higher if commodity/oil rices also go up in usd.

I will claim that one.

4. The big falls in unemployment we've seen recently will slow and may even start to reverse - likewise the picture for real terms wage growth is much gloomier thanks to increasing inflation. Best guess is a slight rise in unemployment and falls in real terms wages.
Not sure, presumably uncertainty means less EU immigration and along with the minimum wage this will do what was intended, push wages up at the bottom. So all things being equal slightly more wage growth but also less employment growth. 5.1% unemployment by year end


Again details right, total too pessimistic, the fall in EU workers was even sharper than I expected.

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%.
Mostly agree although we will see US rates up 'sharply' and even now without the brexit vote the economic fundamentals would be for the uk to start to follow. However I still think the UK wants to inflate away debt through nominal gdp increases as was done in 2012/13 so I don't see any move by the boe to raise rates due to 'imported inflation' so I suspect still at 0.25 by end of next year, outside 0.5%

BoE has decided that the labour market factors mentioned above (basically the end of unlimited supply at current prices plus the crumbling of the 1% public sector pay cap) necessitated an interest rate move. With the economy weak it doesn't look like they will move again upwards - any chance of the next move being down?!

6. House building will not increase at anywhere near the rates the government has promised or the country needs to alleviate the housing crisis. If the government does not reverse the punitive BTL taxes that act as a discouragement to investment it will fall.
Agree and agree and


Actually build rates were better than I expected.

7. Rents will continue to increase and reach another new record high.
'Record high' is a bit disingenuous as positive price inflation means record high is the norm. Average rent to average income is likely to rise with restricted new btl supply although govt hb policy does impact.

Does anyone have any recent data on this, hasn't been reported that widely. Slower population growth may have reduced pressure on rents?

8. The gap between London/SE and the rest of the UK will continue to close as it did in 2016.
Prime london yes, outer London and home counties not sure, Rest of country to remain flat.
Anecdotal but the Central London falls appear to have rippled to the home counties.

9. Aberdeen house prices will continue to soften a bit as they have done over the last year. The falls in Aberdeen rents are already starting to ease and should level off towards year end.
No idea, Oil rices probably still have an upper bound of 60-70 usd due to us shale so presumably that means uk offshore production continues to be run down.
Is this correct?

10. Economic growth will slow with GDP under 2.0% for the year
Not certain, real economy seems strong and min wage puts money into the pocket of those most likely to spend it, I think 2 to 2.5%

What are we expecting - 1.8%-1.9%?

Politics:

11. If the government indicate a soft/sensible Brexit (staying in single market) and/or long term transitional deal is being targeted then the worst economic consequences of Brexit to the UK will largely be avoided. And a second Scottish Indyref will be off the table.
Needs another post / thread. I suspect 'interesting times'

'Brexit means Norway' by the looks of things.

12. If the government indicate a hard/chaotic Brexit is being pursued then the SNP will call for Scottish Indyref 2 - and win it.
Really? I still think the Scots would still vote to stay in UK but admit I am miles from any knowledge.

GE result seems to have quietened the NATs down..

13. The UK Labour party will end the year with a different leader. (perhaps a bit of an outlier but we can live in hope!)
Doubtful, I suspect Labour will communicate its left wing policies better which are ones people tend to tell pollsters they support and see poll levels increase especially with Tory uncertainty/infighting


Gold star

14. DAESH will continue trying to destabilise the West with additional terrorist attacks and attempting to start the race/religion war they so desperately want - aided and abetted by the European/UK right-wing groups that are the other side of the same coin..... Hopefully they will fail.... and decency, reason and humanity will win out over despair, hatred and division... But 2016 has taught us that cannot be guaranteed.
Remember the Spanish election that was turned by an alqueda train bomb atrocity a week or so before the poll. This impacts the next question too.

Interesting that the attacks came to the UK this year compared to mainland Europe previously, not sure if this tells us something or is just one of those seeing a pattern in a small number of essentially random events?

15. And finally the European elections - Peak Populism will pass soon enough - hopefully it's this year and we can avoid any more pointless disruption from extremists like Le Pen getting elected - but lets not count our chickens just yet..... :beer:

LePen would obviously be a stretch especially against a right wing candidate who is playing the nationalist card, but who knows, were there to be a successful terror attack. Similarly Netherlands and possibly Italy if there is an election there. Germany will see another grand coalition probably right dominated as usual.


Pretty much spot on although I certainly never saw a country completely disillusioned with the centre left electing another centre left president. I suspect Fillion would have won had he not self destructed over the paying his wife scandal.



=================


16. GBP will appreciate slowly unless the tory party breaks
Kept trying but the Tory party committing suicide at the GE didn't help

17. Stock markets globally will have a strong run for the first half of the year
Up 5% first half...down 3.5% second half

18. Oil will trade between 45 and 65
Tick

19. It will be the 3rd warmest year on record
3rd or 2nd tbc

20. We might see a uk election in the spring on the back of May announcing her Brexit plans but before article 50. May is not a natural risk taker but advisors will tell her she could bank 5 years with a good majority giving her more sway over backbenchers.
Yes and doh!

21. May is going for the supreme court on invoking article 50 for two reasons (a) to delay (b) to demonstrate to Tory eurosceptics that she is a true brexiteer and did everything she could to stop parliament from meddling. However this will not prevent the tory party splitting between those who think brexit means no fom and no European court and no single market and those who think it vital we retain all of these. Without an election the tory party will split and it is possible there will be a realignment of uk politics, the parliamentary majority would be formed by combining labour momentum refugees and tory non-brexiteers to be led by chukka uma or gideon or tony blair.....
Weak and stable - possibly the election disaster is holding the tories together as they can very easily see the alternative if they break ranks but the recent eu repeal bill defeats show that it is a pretty shaky 'truce'

I think a c+?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

michaels wrote: »

I think a c+?

Hey it's the festive season - gift yourself a B+ instead! :beer: