How many people pulling out?

Baron_Greenback

Jonbvn wrote: »

Remember even a clock that is not working is right twice a day;)

Not if the hands have fallen off.

mr.broderick

Doozergirl wrote: »

Can you tell me what on earth you are talking about please?

I just love random posts like dubb's.

He's basically saying you have no morals and i am inclined to agree with him.

Dubb, you're a legend, we need more posts like your debut offering.

Ok I'm getting back to my new book, it comes highly recommended.

"Random posts by complete maniacs" by john steinbeck.

Doozergirl

Proper belly laugh! :rotfl:

Gorgeous_George

I hear the Vatican were going to sponsor a certain brand of Condom....



... that was until the Pope said they should pull out at the last minute.

(note tenuous link to the thread title)



GG

dolce_vita

Have you ever pulled out george?

franklee

Libra1975 wrote: »

Do a hypothetical, say you are going to stay in this house you buy for 10 years - what is the downside to buying now?

Neat idea, hypothetically I'd get the house I can afford now rather than the one I could afford after a drop in prices.

Let's say I can afford 250K now, that gets me a three bed terrace or semi. If I wait and prices drop by 20% I can pay my 250K for a house currently "worth" 312,500. So I would then get a four bed detached.

If I was to pay the 312,500 now for the four bed detached not only would the mortgage debt be too big but I would have to pay 9,375 stamp duty. After the drop as the house is 250K the stamp duty is 2,500. So that's another 6,875 saved.

If there was a 30% price drop then I will be able to buy a house now "worth" 357,142 for my 250K. So that's a nicer four bed detached.

Stamp duty on a 357,142 house is 10,714. After the drop as the house is 250K stamp duty is again 2,500. Saving another 8,214.

Libra1975 wrote: »

Do you really think that the market will crash so badly it will never recover?

Not at all, the market will recover but it'll take years, I'd guess at least 15 years.

But that makes the savings made by buying after the price drop even bigger. Say after the 30% drop there is another boom and prices multiply by 1.5.

Person A spends his 250K on the three bed semi now. Sees the price drop by 30% to 175K and then recover to 175*1.5=262K.

Person B spends his 250K on the nicer four bed detached after the 30% drop. His house also goes up in the boom but to 250*1.5=375K.

Both pay the same for the house but by waiting person B gets to live in the better house and gets over 100K more out of the next boom. To achieve that person B has to put up with renting for the next few years but saves money each month during this time as the rent is less than the mortgage interest would be.

If the next boom is bigger person B does even better.

If prices now stagnate person B is no worse off.

If prices do not fall but boom again now person B will only be able to afford a small flat.

I know where my money is on this and that isn't hypothetical it's real money in the bank. I am the guy who sold the three bed semi

mar3539

The reason folks have not been buying homes is b/c the prices have been inflated for several years. They are coming back down to a reasonable price now, but they are hard to sell. In the next week or so it should pick up due to the recent lowering of rates by 1/2 percent. It is a buyer's market now. Trouble is I can't sell mine to take advantage of it. Texas houses are less expensive than houses out in the west, so I'm hoping some "westerners" will come south to buy a much cheaper place than they could buy out west.

ivavoucher

Just completed on a house 20th Sept

Traded down but was it the right time? who knows,

Feels good now not to have eggs all in one basket although the housing basket has been so good to me. :j

dannyboycey

dolce_vita wrote: »

Anyone with any sense

Rocking horse poo springs to mind.

The masses of FTB's wont stop buying until there is absolutely no way they can raise the funds to buy, and more importantly, until the tabloids tell them the housing market has crashed. Thankfully, the former appears to have come to fruition with what is happening with lending criteria and the latter will not be far behind.

Libra1975

franklee wrote: »

Neat idea, hypothetically I'd get the house I can afford now rather than the one I could afford after a drop in prices.

Let's say I can afford 250K now, that gets me a three bed terrace or semi. If I wait and prices drop by 20% I can pay my 250K for a house currently "worth" 312,500. So I would then get a four bed detached.

If I was to pay the 312,500 now for the four bed detached not only would the mortgage debt be too big but I would have to pay 9,375 stamp duty. After the drop as the house is 250K the stamp duty is 2,500. So that's another 6,875 saved.

If there was a 30% price drop then I will be able to buy a house now "worth" 357,142 for my 250K. So that's a nicer four bed detached.

Stamp duty on a 357,142 house is 10,714. After the drop as the house is 250K stamp duty is again 2,500. Saving another 8,214.



Not at all, the market will recover but it'll take years, I'd guess at least 15 years.

But that makes the savings made by buying after the price drop even bigger. Say after the 30% drop there is another boom and prices multiply by 1.5.

Person A spends his 250K on the three bed semi now. Sees the price drop by 30% to 175K and then recover to 175*1.5=262K.

Person B spends his 250K on the nicer four bed detached after the 30% drop. His house also goes up in the boom but to 250*1.5=375K.

Both pay the same for the house but by waiting person B gets to live in the better house and gets over 100K more out of the next boom. To achieve that person B has to put up with renting for the next few years but saves money each month during this time as the rent is less than the mortgage interest would be.

If the next boom is bigger person B does even better.

If prices now stagnate person B is no worse off.

If prices do not fall but boom again now person B will only be able to afford a small flat.

I know where my money is on this and that isn't hypothetical it's real money in the bank. I am the guy who sold the three bed semi

It's not that I don't understand your argument (however nowhere near were I live will you get a 4 bedroom detached for 325k now) it's just having looked at your argument and then having gone to look for what I could rent where I live I can't find one place I would want to live in anymore. Person B is putting their life on hold so maybe they can buy a bigger house in a few years down the line IF the house prices crash and just don't stagnate.
I have rented, I have rented for a long time and I'm tired of being told where I can hang my pictures and what I can do to my garden.

I am a first time buyer and we can afford to buy a house without stretching ourselves. In fact to get a house rented that I would be happy with you would involved the same payment per month (I would get more bedrooms but there is only 2 of us and I have no idea what I would do with 4 bedrooms)