On-grid domestic battery storage

QrizB

orrery said:

Netexporter said:

The FIT scheme was designed to pump-prime the solar market, which was virtually non-existent at the time. The other thing that was virtually non-existent were smart meters. Once smart meters were widely available then the SEGs schemes became possible, so that actual exports could be reimbursed, rather than notional deemed exports.

The FIT scheme was cut catastrophically and basically halted PV installs at the the time, with companies going bust all over the place. That wasn't priming the pumps.

As someone with a FIT-eligible PV system who scraped in on the highest rate by the skin of his teeth following the judicial review, I suggest it was a good scheme that was a victim of its own success.

Early FITs were priced to give a ~5% IRR over the duration of the scheme. It was not meant to be a way of transferring money from billpayers to middle-class homeowners and rent-a-roof companies.

However, the cost of PV kit fell faster than the scheme expected. This meant that FIT rates were giving 10% IRR returns over 25 years (not that I'm complaining) and demand soared.

So the gov't redced the fIT rates, bringing the IRR back under control, and demand slumped.

This cycle was broken when they moved to more frequent FIT reviews.

orrery said:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/05/home-solar-panel-installations-fall-by-94-as-subsidies-cut

As I recall, the problem in 2019 was that the FIT was closed before SEG was established. There was a period of a year or two where your options for export payments were limited.
Now, the market is back working as it should until - at least the next government intervention ...

Netexporter

This looks like a brilliant solution to hassle-free battery control for optimal returns:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nmk7M156_PE

Currently only available for Givenergy/Octopus set-ups, so will suit me perfectly!

Reed_Richards

Where I live it's often sunny on a day predicted to be cloudy and vice versa.  So I don't think a system that needs accurate weather forecasts would work well for me.

Netexporter

Reed_Richards said:

Where I live it's often sunny on a day predicted to be cloudy and vice versa.  So I don't think a system that needs accurate weather forecasts would work well for me.

I wonder if you can override the "weather compensation" if the weather turns out differently on the day?

Waywardmike

Netexporter said:

This looks like a brilliant solution to hassle-free battery control for optimal returns:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nmk7M156_PE

Currently only available for Givenergy/Octopus set-ups, so will suit me perfectly!

I'm currently using Wonder Watt with my Growatt, although it claims to also support Givenergy, which I believe does a similar thing.

It's actually working really well, although at the moment it's just charging to 100% every night as it's December.

what I do like about it is that it will alter the charge rate to ensure it gets to the set % over my 4 hour cheap period.  Previously I was just charging it at 100%, which from 'empty' only takes 2 hours, so it's probably way better for the battery to do it this way.  There's probably only been a couple of days where I thought it over or under charged the battery.

Currently it's free but I can't see it staying that way for long.

orrery

QrizB said:

So the gov't redced the fIT rates, bringing the IRR back under control, and demand slumped.

This cycle was broken when they moved to more frequent FIT reviews.

orrery said:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/05/home-solar-panel-installations-fall-by-94-as-subsidies-cut

As I recall, the problem in 2019 was that the FIT was closed before SEG was established. There was a period of a year or two where your options for export payments were limited.
Now, the market is back working as it should until - at least the next government intervention ...

You make it sound like a planned process which, in both the cases you cite, it wasn't. In both cases the government clearly intended to (effectively) close down the schemes by introducing unfavourable terms, until they were met by a howl of protest and had to do a reverse ferret.

I also just scraped in on the good FIT scheme, but I remember the indifference my neighbours and family showed at the time - it took the generous rates to "prime the pumps". It was clear what rates would be needed for the follow on scheme, but the rates set (after protests) were clearly inadequate and all but closed the industry down.

The point I was making is: you need to ask yourself ... why? The scheme could have continued at pace, with the right level of FIT, gradually being phased down and we've have had much more solar PV now, located on otherwise useless space - roofs. We now know that the level of lobbying from the power utilities was very high and their vested interest was to stop generation that is behind the meter, because they can't generate revenue from it. The same happened in other countries - Spain effectively banned rooftop solar under pressure from the industry.

To come back to the original topic, the only way the industry is likely to support mass domestic battery installations is if they are in control of them.

Martyn1981

I think the PV FiT 'cull' was part of the 'cut the green carp' policies in the second half of the decade, including the effective ban on on-shore wind farms.

Too late now, but at the time I think a cut to the 5p/kWh FiT 'down' to 8p/kWh for 10yrs, and possibly on just the first 3,000kWh's pa (as PV was getting larger/more efficient) would have been enough to keep things ticking along nicely. Certainly would have helped a teeny weeny bit during this FF gas crisis - as would more on-shore wind.


Back to batts, I think Z is dead right about prices. I don't watch them enough, but things seem to be changing for the good quite fast recently. Looking back at the first post, I see that Powerwall II prices are now similar to 2016. That's not what I hoped, but with the rapid rise in demand for battery materials, and prices, I suppose I have to live with it. Plus in real terms things look better ..... especially considering current leccy savings potential.

Maybe next year (Rodney) I'll finally get my batts, but it's complicated and convuluted as I need to tie in a PV ground mount, and keep the DNO happy. Fingers remain ever crossed.

Netexporter

Why get a Powerwall when the Givenergy All-in-One has the same spec for a far lower price?

Martyn1981

Hi, it was more to do with the price comparison over the years.

However, it's the Givenergy hybrid system that I've been following. I've even had an e-mail exchange with them regarding my hoped for PV ground mount (ladder store, to avoid PP). So that's certainly my first choice. I can avoid any DNO issues for the PV, by piggybacking off the battery/inverter certification. Assuming I can get a zero export permission, as I'm at the limit for export already.

The Powerwall III will allow a PV connection too, but could be years away, and I assume a price hike.

zeupater

Martyn1981 said:

....
Back to batts, I think Z is dead right about prices. I don't watch them enough, but things seem to be changing for the good quite fast recently. Looking back at the first post, I see that Powerwall II prices are now similar to 2016. That's not what I hoped, but with the rapid rise in demand for battery materials, and prices, I suppose I have to live with it. Plus in real terms things look better ..... especially considering current leccy savings potential.

Maybe next year (Rodney) I'll finally get my batts, but it's complicated and convuluted as I need to tie in a PV ground mount, and keep the DNO happy. Fingers remain ever crossed.

....

Netexporter said:

Why get a Powerwall when the Givenergy All-in-One has the same spec for a far lower price?

Hi

IMO the Powerwall is starting to look like a premium brand product in a marketplace where there is no such thing ... there probably needs to be a serious re-evaluation on Tesla's behalf ... probably involving manufacturing at scale in lower cost areas (Indonesia / China / India ?) as long as it's close to raw material supply in order to shorten the supply chain ...

The AIO offering looks to be tempting, especially as wholesale prices seem to be showing the effects of competition, however there are signs that there's a significant step change in ESS prices on the horizon ... I've seen reference to ~£2500 for 15kWh of storage soon being available from some brands, which isn't too far from what I've long considered to be the level that would be required to open the market up in a meaningful way .... just need something to happen on VAT and installers to compete for position & market share in a meaningful way and Bob's likely to be one of someone's parents brother!

Similar to discussions we were having around the time of the FiT launch, installers seem to be justifying high quotations on addressable market size, the cost of training/accreditation, overheads, sitting around waiting for irregular work etc whilst not simply seeing ESS as a bolt on to an existing business model, be it solar or standard electrical work (distribution boards etc) it's just another feather in their caps to pay the bills as opposed to a 'get rich quick' & 'dump when competition arrives' scheme that drove the early PV market ...

HTH - Z