How much can house prices keep rising ?

GreatApe

AdrianC wrote: »

No, I didn't say that.

There is no argument to be made about the car not being on average the most important/efficient mode of transport even in little dense England let alone worldwide. Either the world is mad using so many cars to do so many miles or you are mad for thinking you know of a better system to transport the millions/billions of people. I know which one my bet is on

chucknorris

GreatApe wrote: »

Its important to distinguish between comparing technology vs comparing taxes.

The trip for London to Edinburgh would be some 7 hours by car vs 4.5 hours by train vs 1.5 hours by plane. However the point to point times will probably be closer to 7h vs 7h

The self drive taxi will likely be more comfortable and faster than a train point to point and certainly cheaper pre tax. Many trips via train are difficult due to the point to point nature of trains. For instance if you want to go from Telford to Luton it is a 2 hour drive or it is a 4 hour multiple train/bus/taxi trip plus the car is more comfortable eg imagine moving multiple suitcases it would be a nightmare on multiple trains vs throwing it in the back in a car just once.

You seem to be arguing something very different to me (I am merely stating my preference specifically travelling to Newcastle), you don't have to sell cars to me, I have already said on this very thread that a car is a must have for me.

chucknorris wrote: »

Living in Surrey and also really liking the outdoors, a car is a must for me, to get to all the great walks/beauty spots, but for very long journeys I have recently realised how much better the train can be.

All I am is saying that when I travel up to Newcastle (only) that I prefer to go by train. So it isn't important for me to distinguish, I will still prefer to go to Newcastle by train, I live 5 mins walk from Dorking train station, and I get picked up at the other end by my parents.

I usually go to Newcastle at Xmas, sometimes the drive (both ways total) has taken over 20 hours. If I was only travelling short journeys, (like Telford to Luton) I much prefer to drive, in fact, it wouldn't even cross my mind to consider the train. Generally speaking I hate public transport, your argument is with others, not me. I have to get the train to work in London because of parking costs.

quantic

Apparently, average house deposit is £72,000 with an average house price of £216,000, meaning the average mortgage is closer to £144,000. Which would put the average household salary of £50,000 at 2.66x salary.

So going off those rough figures i'd say it can and probably will, rise quite a bit more yet. I can see average house prices being near £300,000 by 2020.

westernpromise

quantic wrote: »

Apparently, average house deposit is £72,000 with an average house price of £216,000, meaning the average mortgage is closer to £144,000. Which would put the average household salary of £50,000 at 2.66x salary.

So going off those rough figures i'd say it can and probably will, rise quite a bit more yet. I can see average house prices being near £300,000 by 2020.

A few years ago I read something similar - the average homeowner had 45% equity in their property, so their £200k house typically had a £110k mortgage on it. As you note, between that and two incomes, it puts it into perspective. House prices of 3x one salary are no more coming back than the horse and cart.

AdrianC

quantic wrote: »

Apparently, average house deposit is £72,000 with an average house price of £216,000, meaning the average mortgage is closer to £144,000. Which would put the average household salary of £50,000 at 2.66x salary.

Is that for FTBs only, or for all buyers...?

TickersPlaysPop

House prices can continue to increase much much further. If lending criteria allows for intergenerational mortgages as in Japan. It is a country that is arguably ahead of the UK in terms of post crash economy so is a good crystal ball for the UK's future.

You take out the loan and your kids end up finishing off the payments... an even better way to enslave us... get us in debt before we are old enough to walk.
Peace

westernpromise

Japan is not the UK.

https://www.nri.com/~/media/PDF/jp/opinion/r_report/kinyu_keizai/japanreport2015_en.pdf

When Japanese property crashed in '88, the private rental sector there was only about 9% of households. If you wanted a roof over your head, you had to buy it because you couldn't rent it. This, of course, helped fuel their bubble.

The PRS is now 20%, about the same as here, because rental demand soared after their '88 crash and rents went up for 10 straight years.

Rents then started to weaken because by 2000 house prices in Japan had started to recover, so it started to become less attractive to rent and miss out on growth. Interestingly, the exception to this was institutional landlords, whose rents did not go down. It was only small individual landlords who reduced rents. Guess what the UK governments wants to see here? Fewer small individual landlords and more institutional landlords, of course!

Any renter hoping for a crash had better have plenty of spare cash handy in case there is one. The rent will be going up if any such crash happens. In 1990 a mate of mine spent more money on rent than he would have lost if he had sat tight in the flat he sold - which makes perfect sense if you think about it.

wotsthat

As an aside the 'is prime London crashing thread' on HPC is three years old today.

That's 3 years of proving on a daily basis that London house prices are crashing as they've gone up in price.

AdrianC

wotsthat wrote: »

As an aside the 'is prime London crashing thread' on HPC is three years old today.

That's 3 years of proving on a daily basis that London house prices are crashing as they've gone up in price.

I wonder how much they'd have to go down to be equal to those 2013/4 values plus just RPI...?

chucknorris

AdrianC wrote: »

I wonder how much they'd have to go down to be equal to those 2013/4 values plus just RPI...?

I can't remember when exactly but around 2013/14 there were some astonishing surges in London property prices.