Italian referendum

Carl31

No concern? Or another nail in the EU coffin?

My money's on the latter

michaels

I wonder if all the hype means that an establishment victory is anticipated to serve as an eu boost?

vivatifosi

There was an interesting piece about this, I think on the Adam Boulton show on Fri. They had two Italians discussing it. Both made the point that the furthest Italy would go - and even that is unlikely - would be leaving the eurozone rather than the EU. They also said that the way the EU has been written into law would make if very difficult to disengage from, requiring several rounds of legal activity rather than just one.

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

I wonder if all the hype means that an establishment victory is anticipated to serve as an eu boost?

Doesn't solve the Italian banking crisis or those disenchanted with the lack of benefit from having EU membership.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

michaels wrote: »

I wonder if all the hype means that an establishment victory is anticipated to serve as an eu boost?

All what hype?
According to some (in these forums at least) there is more made here in the UK of this Italian referendum.
Added to which Thrugelmir's statement above is acutely correct.

As I say in another thread, noting also the Austrian elections:
"Within a few days now we may see the beginnings of desire for far-reaching change within the EU and not just from the UK with our recent in/out referendum result."

Moto2

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

As I say in another thread, noting also the Austrian elections:
"Within a few days now we may see the beginnings of desire for far-reaching change within the EU and not just from the UK with our recent in/out referendum result."

Looks like the Austrians have backed the Greens over the racists

The_Last_Username

Moto2 wrote: »

Looks like the Austrians have backed the Greens over the racists

I bet that has led to more than a few sighs of relief.

Meanwhile:

About 57% of Italian voters have cast their ballots in this referendum as of 7pm, a strong showing for a complicated question about the nation’s constitution. The high turnout numbers lend credence to the view that this vote has really touched a nerve in Italy

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/dec/04/italian-referendum-and-austrian-presidential-election-live

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

This is not a referendum about the EU.

The referendum proposal is complicated - and involves a package of 5 parts - but essentially it's to reduce the power of some elected representatives and the power of the upper house and vest more power in the lower house.

There is also another proposal to give the largest voted party more seats to ensure a majority.

The goal is to stop the constant changes to government and deadlocks caused by too little power spread amongst too many participants so as to enable real reform - Italy has had 65 governments since 1945 and very little ever seems to change - but the danger is by concentrating too much power with the government a future party such as 5 star could indeed end up in absolute control and take Italy out of the EU which would be disastrous.

Nor is it the case that if Renzi loses and resigns this will lead to Italy leaving the EU - in fact the bigger danger on that front is if he wins - as at the moment even a different PM would not be likely to get such legislation through the parliament whereas in the future if the referendum passes a different and more powerful government might.

So for these reasons - less democracy if it passes - the danger of more power in the hands of future populist governments - and the uncertainty all that causes - The Economist amongst many others supports a No vote even if it causes Renzi to resign.

'No' is currently leading in the polls but to be honest which direction is best for Italy is a finely balanced thing.

- Italy does need structural economic reform and the current political system makes it very difficult to achieve that.

- Reform could be controversial and opposed by many vested interests - so you need a stable government to get it through - and the current political system leads to instability - hence 65 governments since 1945.

But equally creating an appointed rather than elected upper house is in theory a backwards step for democratic values, and making it subordinate to the elected house removes a layer of checks and balances.

Possibly a good thing if a centrist party is in government as today and it lets them make long overdue structural economic changes - but it could make things much worse if a more extreme party entered government in the future handing them too much power.

But it's very much not about the EU, and nor is it clear that a vote either way is good or bad for Italy, or Italian membership of Europe, no matter what some of this boards more extreme posters try to portray.

Moto2

But if it spawns a GE, that could well be about the EU

Who can tell these days?

antrobus

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

This is not a referendum about the EU.

The referendum proposal is complicated ....

Do you approve the text of the constitutional law regarding 'provisions to overcome equal bicameralism, reducing the number of MPs, the containment of operating costs of the institutions, the elimination of the CNEL and the revision of Title V of Part II of the Constitution' approved by Parliament and published in the Official Gazette no. 88 of 15 April 2016?

Or presumably the Italian equivalent.

As I understand, the question is being put to a referendum because Renzi failed to get the necessary two-thirds approval in parliament. Renzi has said he will resign if the vote is no. Some people think that means that 5star will take over. 5star are an odd bunch of people, but they are in EFDD along with UKIP, and thus Eurosceptic, although not pro exit.

Thrugelmir

Moto2 wrote: »

Looks like the Austrians have backed the Greens over the racists

A third of the vote shows the level of discontent. Uncertain times lie ahead.