To wait or not to wait

Mark2016

Hi everyone

I have a lump sum to invest and I'm considering investing in funds. I have compared the scenario of drip-feeding as opposed to lump sum investing. The government plans to trigger Article 50 in March 2017. I can't second guess what the stockmarket will do, but I am not sure whether I should invest now or wait until after Article 50 is triggered. Would value your advice. Many thanks

Linton

The stockmarket wont do anythng when Article 50 is triggered. Everyone belives that Article 50 will be triggered. So when it happens why would anyone do something they wouldnt have done a few days before.

Look at it another way. Assume everyone believed there was going to be a major fall when Article 50 was triggered. Investors would therefore sell a few days previously whilst prices were still high, a period when noone would want to buy. The selling would cause prices to fall which would bring the Article 50 crash earlier before it was signed. This invalidates the original assumption.

As a general rule the market reacts on surprises not on things that are well flagged in advance.

chockydavid1983

Time in the market not timing the market

Mark2016

Thanks so much for the advice. I think maybe I should invest my lump sum sooner rather than wait.

chockydavid1983

I chose to invest a lump sum over a few months. Probably didn't make much of a difference but felt better psychologically :-).

lpgm

Remember, if you one day find yourself with another lump sum to invest, you'll be drip feeding anyway!

kevin52

If you think Brexit will have a negative effect on the British economy and stock market (and I certainly do) you could invest in global trackers such as Vanguard Life strategy.

dunstonh

Mark2016 wrote: »

Hi everyone

I have a lump sum to invest and I'm considering investing in funds. I have compared the scenario of drip-feeding as opposed to lump sum investing. The government plans to trigger Article 50 in March 2017. I can't second guess what the stockmarket will do, but I am not sure whether I should invest now or wait until after Article 50 is triggered. Would value your advice. Many thanks

As you say, you can't second guess the market. Plus, there are always risk events coming. Article 50 is not the big concern of the markets for 2017. Once 2017 is over, then 2018 comes and all the 2018 concerns arrive. Then 2019 and the 2019 concerns arrive.

eskbanker

chockydavid1983 wrote: »

Time in the market not timing the market

chockydavid1983 wrote: »

I chose to invest a lump sum over a few months. Probably didn't make much of a difference but felt better psychologically :-).

But that gave you less time in the market, which is precisely why it's usually recommended to get a lump sum invested straightaway rather than drip-feeding it!

chockydavid1983

I know, that's why I said psychologically :-)
Of course it makes no sense logically!

jimjames

kevin52 wrote: »

If you think Brexit will have a negative effect on the British economy and stock market (and I certainly do) you could invest in global trackers such as Vanguard Life strategy.

I don't think your views on Brexit should colour your judgement on a portfolio which should be globally balanced anyway. You do realise that 70% of the FTSE derives their income from outside UK anyway?