Will Dollar drop work in our favour?

biffy84

I'm debating whether to buy US dollars now or gamble on the election.

I'm unclear as to whether the dollar weekend has would have a positive or negative effect on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

Can anyone give me a (straight forward) answer please?

biffy84

Weekend = weakened!

phatbear

I can guarantee that post election the dollar rate will be different to what it is now

Voyager2002

Markets hate uncertainty, so the dollar will probably be slightly higher immediately after the result is known. However, a lot could happen between now and then; and something might happen to increase the value of the pound at the same time.

The only sure-fire way to increase the value of your pounds is to stop that dreadful woman from talking about Brexit, and ensure that the UK remains a full member of the European single market.

eDicky

A lower value dollar, by definition, will be worth less in terms of other currencies (assuming that their value remains stable). So, if your pound does not also lose value, it will buy more of the 'weakened' dollar.

dickydonkin

Voyager2002 wrote: »

The only sure-fire way to increase the value of your pounds is to stop that dreadful woman from talking about Brexit, and ensure that the UK remains a full member of the European single market.

That isn't going to happen - democracy has spoken.


For those who can reliably predict currency markets, they would likely be traveling on their private jet to their own island in the Caribbean.


For the amounts of money the majority of us take on holiday, a slight fluctuation is irrelevant.


That said, when the costs of hotels and other expenses come into play, then there can be a significant increase.


This is out of our control and if you don't want to pay the additional costs caused by currency fluctuations, then stay at home.


The pound will strengthen in time - it always does, it is just that it is getting a hammering at the moment.

biffy84

eDicky wrote: »

A lower value dollar, by definition, will be worth less in terms of other currencies (assuming that their value remains stable). So, if your pound does not also lose value, it will buy more of the 'weakened' dollar.

Thank you, this is just the information I needed!

Voyager2002

dickydonkin wrote: »

That isn't going to happen - democracy has spoken.

No: the referendum was about membership of the European Union, while my post referred to the single market. There is general agreement among all well-informed observers that membership of the single market would be very much in Britain's interest: the question is whether the other EU members would allow the UK to belong to the single market without staying signed up to the other agreements.

dickydonkin wrote: »

The pound will strengthen in time - it always does, it is just that it is getting a hammering at the moment.

I can just about remember when the pound was worth US$2.80, and back then older friends were used to it being worth four dollars and were alarmed at how low it was. They used to refer to wealthy Americans as being "millionaires, but ONLY dollar millionaires".

In the medium term, the UK trade deficit means that the pound is sure to decline over the next five years or so (unless something unexpected changes). In the longer term, my guess is that once North Sea oil starts running out and we no longer have all the skilled workers from Poland (not to mention all the bright graduates from Italy, Spain and France) to run our remaining industries, the prospects will be extremely bleak.

dickydonkin

Voyager2002 wrote: »

In the medium term, the UK trade deficit means that the pound is sure to decline over the next five years or so (unless something unexpected changes). In the longer term, my guess is that once North Sea oil starts running out and we no longer have all the skilled workers from Poland (not to mention all the bright graduates from Italy, Spain and France) to run our remaining industries, the prospects will be extremely bleak.

A very gloomy prediction indeed - many will suggest you have little faith in our country. We do a lot of great things in the UK and oil isn't the be all and end all.

I work in a University and let me assure you that we also have bright graduates who will be quite capable of running our existing industries and indeed emerging ones.

There will be some turbulence in the currency markets until we have sorted out Brexit, but I have to disagree with your negative perspective on our country.

Voyager2002

dickydonkin wrote: »

A very gloomy prediction indeed - many will suggest you have little faith in our country. We do a lot of great things in the UK and oil isn't the be all and end all.

I work in a University and let me assure you that we also have bright graduates who will be quite capable of running our existing industries and indeed emerging ones.

There will be some turbulence in the currency markets until we have sorted out Brexit, but I have to disagree with your negative perspective on our country.

I also work in a university... the bright British graduates I know have global ambitions, while the very bright graduates who are determined to work here tend to come from the Mediterranean countries. And no, I don't have much faith in the UK now: I have spent enough time in other countries to know how much better things are done in the world's leading economies.

dickydonkin

Voyager2002 wrote: »

I also work in a university... the bright British graduates I know have global ambitions, while the very bright graduates who are determined to work here tend to come from the Mediterranean countries. And no, I don't have much faith in the UK now: I have spent enough time in other countries to know how much better things are done in the world's leading economies.

But you still return to the UK?

For the benefit of the OP, the pound has risen slightly today following the news that the Government cannot trigger Brexit without an MP's vote in the commons.