Northern Rock - Shares [Merged Threads]

munk

I was considering a punt at £3, but even then I don't see it turning around overnight. Would have thought it'd be a few months at least before looking at a decent profit.

Having said all this I'll probably just sit back and watch the fun

By the way does anyone know if it's possible to get historical quote data for around the 1991 period for a company called 'National Home Loans'? I'm guessing it's not possible - at least without paying. Apparently they were in a very similar situation to NR back in 1991 borrowing from the wholesale money markets and had to be bailed out by the banks and I was curious how long it took them to recover from the crisis.

globalds

From the look of this article http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/39199b78-6489-11dc-90ea-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=e8477cc4-c820-11db-b0dc-000b5df10621.html .The figure NR bottoms out could be as low as £1.80 a share

Ivan_Konstantinov

alared wrote: »

After all the TV pictures of queues trying to get their money out,how do you think the city will react tomorrow?

Will their shares collapse?

MOP is they`ll go down to about 300p from their current 438p about another 30%.

it's going to be a fun morning....what ever you do, don't deal 8.30-9.00 am the spreads will be daft.

ashm1

globalds wrote: »

From the look of this article http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/39199b78-6489-11dc-90ea-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=e8477cc4-c820-11db-b0dc-000b5df10621.html .The figure NR bottoms out could be as low as £1.80 a share

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NRK.L&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Blimey!

1.80 is off that chart

thor

People readily believe that in the long run shares go up mantra. What I have a problem with is the defination of 'long run'. How many years has the stock market been around? I have not done much research over this but I would have guessed not much longer than a couple of centuries. Now what law is there to say that shares won't go down over the next 200 years? Isn't investing just gambling for the city types? You can work out dividend yields, earnings per share etc but it all goes out of the window when there is mass panic selling. This is exactly what is happening with NR shares. Everyone buying and selling them are gambling and nobody (except maybe the directors) know which way it is going to go.

FelOn_2

thor wrote: »

Isn't investing just gambling for the city types?

Are you old enough to have a pension?

globalds

The aim of analysts is to try and make predictions based on fact rather than gamble.Thhis is why I would discount the idea that the stock market would fall as often as it rises ...This isn't a gamble with a bookie who has to fix odds to make his cut .
This is a tool for getting capital to busineses or alternately allowing capital to be invested .
If you were asking whether certain portions of the market can become overheated or give "false" readings that investors may lose money on .This most certainley could happen very often .
I personally think NRK may well be a symptom of this effect in the financial markets .....simply put ..Cash has been artificially cheap ..Alowing Northern rock to pursue a business plan that under realistic conditions doesn't hold water

Gorgeous_George

Anyone remember Ratners? This time it is the customers who are saying the company is crap - that must be worse.

NR will not be taken over anytime soon - there is no money available to buy it. With no investors, the bank will die and the BofE will pick up the bill.

GG

Aegis

Shares can do the unpredictable. That's why spreading the risk is vital in anyone but an expert day-trader. Unless you're prepared to really learn the markets and work out what investors are likely to do on a daily basis, investing in a single stock (or a small handful for the day-traders who want more opportunities for profit) is probably not going to work for most people.

On the other hand, if you invest in a unit trust or equivalent, then any one company is likely to represent 1/30 or less of your investment in that fund, and if you invest in multiple funds, that value usually drops significantly. As a result, if you've invested in, say, 7 unit trusts with a little overlapping investment in one company (say 2 have the 1/30 value), then your portfolio value will drop by much less than 1% (a little less than 0.5% in the example above) even if that company disappears overnight!

As a result, if you invest somewhere likely to grow, and examine your investments with a sanity check every now and then, you'll probably do very well in the long run.

Of course, if the market switches to a bear market, there are ways to take advantage of that too, not least of which is selling short. I imagine there would be collective investments tailored towards that situation in no time too!

alared

Already down 148p to 290P