House Market Quiet

Crashy_Time

Grenage wrote: »

Probably because people think that leaving Europe and a plummeting pound will lead to an economic apocalypse.

Business as usual once people realise that it hasn't.

"Business as usual" in the property market requires healthy banks, that is something we don`t have....


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-13/deutsche-bank-said-to-implement-hiring-freeze-as-ceo-cuts-costs

Grenage

uh huh. What, prithee, is your expected outlook over the coming couple of years?

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Why is the market quiet in that case?

Quite apart from all the uncertainty regarding Brexit, did you not realise that the property market quietens down anyway in Oct/Nov/Dec every single year as we approach Christmas?

Crashy_Time wrote: »

property market requires healthy banks, that is something we don`t have....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-13/deutsche-bank-said-to-implement-hiring-freeze-as-ceo-cuts-costs

Can you remind me what percentage of the UK mortgage market is underwritten by Deutsche Bank?

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver wrote: »

Quite apart from all the uncertainty regarding Brexit, did you not realise that the property market quietens down anyway in Oct/Nov/Dec every single year as we approach Christmas?



Can you remind me what percentage of the UK mortgage market is underwritten by Deutsche Bank?

So you think the UK mortgage market will tick along nicely if DB goes down or needs a bail out?

Crashy_Time

Grenage wrote: »

uh huh. What, prithee, is your expected outlook over the coming couple of years?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-12/london-home-presales-slump-14-as-brexit-compounds-tax-woes

Grenage

Crashy_Time wrote: »

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-12/london-home-presales-slump-14-as-brexit-compounds-tax-woes

That's not a prediction, it's another anecdotal URL.

As if rises and falls weren't normal in... just about everything.

Crashy_Time

Grenage wrote: »

That's not a prediction, it's another anecdotal URL.

As if rises and falls weren't normal in... just about everything.

It is in line with my general prediction though.

Grenage

Is this the same prediction you've had for the last ten years? Because I've got to tell you, predicting that there will be a slump in house prices at some point in the next ten years is a bit like predicting that a toddler will fall over and cry.

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time wrote: »

So you think the UK mortgage market will tick along nicely if DB goes down or needs a bail out?

Whatever happens with DB will not result in a 50% house price crash in the UK.

Crashy_Time wrote: »

It is in line with my general prediction though.

Grenage wrote: »

Is this the same prediction you've had for the last ten years? Because I've got to tell you, predicting that there will be a slump in house prices at some point in the next ten years ...

The problem for Crashy is that he's called it wrong for so long (and as a result been out of the housing market for so long) that he now needs house prices to crash by 80% just to get back to where he started from!

Bluebirdman_of_Alcathays

Crashy, honest question, how much of a crash do you want/need before you'd enter the market? I understand all you HPC guys (and do correct me if I'm wrong) have 6 figures stashed away because you pay about £9 rent a year. So surely you wouldn't need the crash to be that hard? Or would you refuse totally to finance it through debt? I'm not trying to flame you, genuinely trying to see your viewpoint.