Perma prop bulls, are there any left?

Pobby

GreatApe wrote: »

you could say that at any and every point in time, there are always people on the edge how can it be otherwise?

The good news is that although there are always people on the edge, this is a rich country with high wages and lots of wealth. Most people will do fine. Mortgage holders are mostly on repayment mortgages so the banks are safe.

Housing in this country really is no problem (that applies to most developed countries). Most the locals just inherit housing (or equivalent sums) build and paid off a generation+ ago

The people who have it hard in this country are the migrants, low wages and little to no inheritances to help them out. They are where we were as a country maybe 3 generations ago

Agreed up to a point. Yet with interest rates so very low this is, well for me, uncharted waters. I mentioned an interest rate going up by just one-half of one percent causing problems. Now imagine an interest rate of perhaps 2 percent. We do have inflation touching three so I can see this happening if the basic economics of inflation control is made by adjustments to interest rates.

Your point of low wages is a factor affecting a lot of people. Debt charities are reporting that many folks are getting into debt just trying to make ends meet.

As I say, uncharted waters.

goodfella321

Pobby wrote: »

Agreed up to a point. Yet with interest rates so very low this is, well for me, uncharted waters. I mentioned an interest rate going up by just one-half of one percent causing problems. Now imagine an interest rate of perhaps 2 percent. We do have inflation touching three so I can see this happening if the basic economics of inflation control is made by adjustments to interest rates.

Your point of low wages is a factor affecting a lot of people. Debt charities are reporting that many folks are getting into debt just trying to make ends meet.

As I say, uncharted waters.

Actually inflation dropped sharply this month to 2.6%, easing pressure on the BoE. With the economy growth slowing and a brexit happening, we won't see rates climbing for a few years yet. Apologies for injecting some realism into your gloom-mongering.

Malthusian

Pobby wrote: »

Your point of low wages is a factor affecting a lot of people. Debt charities are reporting that many folks are getting into debt just trying to make ends meet.

Of course they are, if they weren't we wouldn't have debt charities to report on them. People have spent beyond their means for as long as they have had access to credit.

Pobby

Malthusian wrote: »

Of course they are, if they weren't we wouldn't have debt charities to report on them. People have spent beyond their means for as long as they have had access to credit.

I said that people are getting into debt to make ends meet.Not that they have debts on " luxuries ", I am referring to just getting by.

Thrugelmir

GreatApe wrote: »

The good news is that although there are always people on the edge, this is a rich country with high wages and lots of wealth.

When someone else loses their job it's called a recession. When you lose your job it's a depression. Savings rates fall lower and lower. There's little capacity for many people to absorb a financial shock. Houses cannot be turned into cash very quickly. A stampede will do little for house prices either. As little as a 10-15% activity level is enough to trigger a correction across the whole market.

padington

I'm still bullish. I foresee most properties being worth well over what they are now in just a five year period.

I've just put down a five year fix. I'm foresee Haringey and Hove to remain highly sought after.

No doubt 2018 and 2019 will be fairly stagnant but after that house prices will go up, if they don't, the tories won't have a hope in hell in winning the next election (and they know it).

Sibley

Think the Prop Bulls just stop posting when we realised there wasn't a war anymore.
Back in the day, there was a blip and chance of a crash. The government moved the goal posts, mortgage rates came down and that was the end of it.

The HPC gang were put to the sword. We just got our head down for the last 8 years, paid off the mortgage and enjoyed life.


Where are they now?....8 years rent books filled...Still waiting for the big crash...

Malthusian

Pobby wrote: »

I said that people are getting into debt to make ends meet.Not that they have debts on " luxuries ", I am referring to just getting by.

The welfare system in the UK means that anyone who gets into debt is spending it on luxuries. Any luxuries can be essentials if you want them to be. We are talking about people "on the edge" - if interest rates rise and they can no longer afford their monthly repayments then either a) they go bankrupt (or seek other debt relief) or b) they decide that their essentials are actually luxuries again.

The idea that a rise in interest rates will cause a Great Depression relies on the idea that people would rather do a) than b) and is not borne out by reality, certainly not the last time interest rates rose dramatically in the 80s.

Pobby

Malthusian wrote: »

The welfare system in the UK means that anyone who gets into debt is spending it on luxuries. Any luxuries can be essentials if you want them to be. We are talking about people "on the edge" - if interest rates rise and they can no longer afford their monthly repayments then either a) they go bankrupt (or seek other debt relief) or b) they decide that their essentials are actually luxuries again.

The idea that a rise in interest rates will cause a Great Depression relies on the idea that people would rather do a) than b) and is not borne out by reality, certainly not the last time interest rates rose dramatically in the 80s.

I`m sure that working people having to use food banks would disagree.

economic

Malthusian wrote: »

The welfare system in the UK means that anyone who gets into debt is spending it on luxuries. Any luxuries can be essentials if you want them to be. We are talking about people "on the edge" - if interest rates rise and they can no longer afford their monthly repayments then either a) they go bankrupt (or seek other debt relief) or b) they decide that their essentials are actually luxuries again.

The idea that a rise in interest rates will cause a Great Depression relies on the idea that people would rather do a) than b) and is not borne out by reality, certainly not the last time interest rates rose dramatically in the 80s.

any problems comes down to the person themselves, most likely some sort of mental problem. people who spend wastefully have no sympathies from me.