The Trade Implications of Brexit....

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

CLAPTON wrote: »

however, if we have finished with discussing socio - economics

We're still waiting for you to tell us why you really dislike immigration so much.

vivatifosi

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

On the contrary, there is much to suggest just the opposite - indeed, even that globalisation is an evil.

Think of the very recent EU claims and fine regarding Apple, for example - and public sentiment surrounding this issue.
In fact the EU are investigating others, including Amazon and Starbucks.
Or the USA fines imposed (for example) upon VW, BP and various banks.

Can globalisation continue apace when what previously appeared to be potentially huge profits are lessened by potentially huge tax and regulative fines?
What makes matters worse at the moment is the "tit-for-tat" appearance to these fines; USA fines VW -> EU fines Apple.
Cue argument.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37179785

Also there is this:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-trade-idUKKCN11F1LZ

Apologies, can't quote selectively on this device. For sure, there are companies that game the system. What his required is better regulation, not chucking the baby out with the bathwater. Apple may have,done a deal with the Irish govt, but it isn't ok to pay so little tax. Similarly, vw may in their eyes have played by the rules, but they played the consumer, and the consumer won't forget.

However for every high profile greedy CEO and his company, there are plenty of others that play fair, pay taxes and show good CSR.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

We're still waiting for you to tell us why you really dislike immigration so much.

I have given reasons why I think that a sustainable population is good for the people of UK.

evenasus

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So you oppose benefits abuse not immigration per se?

Or is it the case that if the govt negotiated free movement with no access to benefits you'd still be up in arms about it....:cool:

Do you really believe that family would have come to the UK if they'd been told there was no free money, housing, child benefit, child tax credits, healthcare, education etc waiting for them?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

evenasus wrote: »

Do you really believe that family would have come to the UK if they'd been told there was no free money, housing, child benefit, child tax credits, healthcare, education etc waiting for them?

I don't believe they'd have come here without the NHS offering to pay the £27,000 training cost for him to become an NHS nurse either.

But again you seem to have a problem with benefits not immigration - unless that's an excuse to cover your dislike of immigration?

So then you'd be fine for the government to negotiate free movement with no access to benefits?

For the record I'd be fine with making our benefits system contribution based so that no migrant could turn up here and claim anything, either in work or out of work, without first paying in for a number of years.

Exactly as many other EU countries already do while remaining compliant with Free Movement rules.

cells

michaels wrote: »

UK car production has been moved to Turkey. That hardly fits with Hamish's contention that cars need to be built in the EU to serve that market.

The automobile market within the EU is very domestic. It imported 2.6m units in 2014 of which 0.7 million were from Turkey which is in the EU customs union so probably should not count

The next bigger exporter to the EU is Japan at 440k units or closer to 300k units for the EU not including the UK.

By comparison the UK exports about 700k units to the EU so more than twice as much as Japan which is a much bigger economy and a much bigger car manufacturer with 5x as much production as the UK.

So Japan builds 5x as many cars but export half as many to the EU. Clearly the car tariffs are working as intended, forcing EU demand to buy EU production

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

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So Japan builds 5x as many cars but export half as many to the EU. Clearly the car tariffs are working as intended, forcing EU demand to buy EU production

so all the people of the EU are much poorer than they need be?

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

there is no reason for nissan to withdraw as we are net importers: there is plenty of scope for greater car manufacture here to meet UK needs

I used to think that too but there is a mismatch between production and demand.

For instance the nissian plant produces about 300,000 units of the qashqui while demand for the car in the uk is only about 50,000 units. even if somehow nissian could increase their sales of the qashqui in the UK to become the best selling car in the UK that would mean 108,000 units sold in the UK. That still leaves close to 200,000 units that need to be sold elsewhere in the EU at a tarriff of 10% your looking at an export tarriff bill of £300m per year just for that model and closer to £500m a year for all their models

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

so all the people of the EU are much poorer than they need be?

i am not sure how you come to that conclusion?

there is a simple fact that some factories for some manufacturerd goods are large to benefit from economies of scale. the nissan car plant is one such example, producing about 300,000 x one model of car. The uk is not big enough to absorb 300,000 x any one model of vehicle but the EU is

If we dont have free market access the simple fact seems to be nissan can not continue the way they are going something would need to change and that will clearly be making the plan and business less competitive and profitable (else they would be doing that change today)


The idea that we will just produce for more domestic demand in this instance doesn't work. Just think of the second biggest uk manufacturer Jaguar Land Rover with close to 500,000 units. Can someone currently buying an imported fiat panda for £6,000 afford to switch to a british x-class jag for £60k? and even if a few units do switch over thats a negative for the balance of trade as we miss out on exporting a £60k car


of course this does not apply to all manufacturing. I am fairly confident we could stop importing so much bottled water from the EU and just sell more highland spring. but its not as easy a switch for cars and definitively not in the short term.


The ugly and scary truth is the UK car plants can not survive selling just to the uk market. If we dont get EU free market access and if we dont get some sort of compensating free market agreement with other countries things could get quite ugly. i will admit here the one bit i am not so sure on is how the free floating currency will soften things if at all. personally I dont see how a highly efficient car manufacturing pant can be saved long term by the currency falling equating to lower wages in that nation.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

cells wrote: »

The ugly and scary truth is the UK car plants can not survive selling just to the uk market. If we dont get EU free market access and if we dont get some sort of compensating free market agreement with other countries things could get quite ugly. .

Precisely.

There's going to be a lot of unemployed automotive workers in the Midlands and North of England if we don't retain Single Market membership.

Although that should come as no surprise.

Given Vote Leave's own economist Patrick Minford already admitted it in the following statement to a HoC committee.....

“Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing and hi-tech"

Without membership of the Single Market the UK automotive industry will be run down over time until virtually all car manufacture in the UK ceases.

And that's not my claim - it's that of 'Economists for Brexit'.