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If "It's the economy, stupid"....Trump wins?
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Fella
Posts: 7,921 Forumite
Interesting stuff from this CNN poll yesterday:
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_politics-zone-injection/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/
Some of those figures really jumped out to me, particularly:
Enthusiastic/Very Enthusiastic about voting:
Trump 58%
Clinton 46%
Who would better handle the economy:
Trump 56%
Clinton 41%
The latter in particular, suggests to me the odds should be way closer than they currently are (Trump 2/1, Clinton 1/2 ish)
Which brings me onto kinda my point which I've been thinking for awhile now. Does the Internet & Social media mean we end up with a very distorted-to-the-left view of public opinion?
Bear with me....
20 years ago & all the time before that, the written word was basically written by people whos livelihood came from writing. So for better or worse, professional journalists etc.
Nowadays & for the first time this is not the case. Now most stuff written is being written by anyone who fancies voicing an opinion. And social media means viewpoints can be passed around like wildfire.
Broadly speaking, which categories of voters do we have. Let's say
The unemployed
Students
public sector workers
Private sector workers
Retirees
Where would you put each group? Generalsing, here's where I'd put them:
The unemployed - left
Students - left
public sector workers - left
Private sector workers - right
Retirees - right
OK now where would you rank them in terms of how much time you have each day to indulge in social media etc? I've been 4 of the 5 categories (not a retiree yet anyway) & I can say without a shadow of a doubt that my opportunities to browse the net at leisure when I was unemployed/student/public sector were insanely high compared to private sector.
So yes yes this is all generalisation & there are public sector workers who work like dogs & never have 5seconds off & private sector workers who do eff all, but in general I don't think it's unfair to say that of groups 1-4 the group least likely to have free time to browse the net all day are private sector workers. And retirees, although they may have all day to do so, are the group least likely to be tech-savvy enough to know how to.
And I think we've seen a lot of evidence of this. The two biggest votes in the UK in the last couple years, the election & the referendum. In both cases we saw:
- the eventual winner (Tories & Leave) given no chance & backable at large odds.
- the eventual winner slagged off all over social media, with every post calling Cameron a toff or Leavers a bunch of closet racists getting about a million likes etc.
And yet what I also saw personally, was completely different. Almost nobody I spoke to was intending to vote Labour (& believe me I don't mix in rich circles). Likewise the overwhelming response re Brexit was that ppl hated the EU & wanted out.
Anyway, long kind of self-indulgent post but for me Trump vs Clinton is the 3rd example. Trump gets slated so roundly on social media you'd think he had no chance. And bookie odds generally agree. And yet those polls don't agree at all. And I'm wondering if social media truly does paint things far more left-wing than what people are actually thinking. If so Trump wins.
Or if I'm wrong he loses.
But I think it's vaguely fascinating, and fwiw I think he'll win.
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_politics-zone-injection/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/
Some of those figures really jumped out to me, particularly:
Enthusiastic/Very Enthusiastic about voting:
Trump 58%
Clinton 46%
Who would better handle the economy:
Trump 56%
Clinton 41%
The latter in particular, suggests to me the odds should be way closer than they currently are (Trump 2/1, Clinton 1/2 ish)
Which brings me onto kinda my point which I've been thinking for awhile now. Does the Internet & Social media mean we end up with a very distorted-to-the-left view of public opinion?
Bear with me....
20 years ago & all the time before that, the written word was basically written by people whos livelihood came from writing. So for better or worse, professional journalists etc.
Nowadays & for the first time this is not the case. Now most stuff written is being written by anyone who fancies voicing an opinion. And social media means viewpoints can be passed around like wildfire.
Broadly speaking, which categories of voters do we have. Let's say
The unemployed
Students
public sector workers
Private sector workers
Retirees
Where would you put each group? Generalsing, here's where I'd put them:
The unemployed - left
Students - left
public sector workers - left
Private sector workers - right
Retirees - right
OK now where would you rank them in terms of how much time you have each day to indulge in social media etc? I've been 4 of the 5 categories (not a retiree yet anyway) & I can say without a shadow of a doubt that my opportunities to browse the net at leisure when I was unemployed/student/public sector were insanely high compared to private sector.
So yes yes this is all generalisation & there are public sector workers who work like dogs & never have 5seconds off & private sector workers who do eff all, but in general I don't think it's unfair to say that of groups 1-4 the group least likely to have free time to browse the net all day are private sector workers. And retirees, although they may have all day to do so, are the group least likely to be tech-savvy enough to know how to.
And I think we've seen a lot of evidence of this. The two biggest votes in the UK in the last couple years, the election & the referendum. In both cases we saw:
- the eventual winner (Tories & Leave) given no chance & backable at large odds.
- the eventual winner slagged off all over social media, with every post calling Cameron a toff or Leavers a bunch of closet racists getting about a million likes etc.
And yet what I also saw personally, was completely different. Almost nobody I spoke to was intending to vote Labour (& believe me I don't mix in rich circles). Likewise the overwhelming response re Brexit was that ppl hated the EU & wanted out.
Anyway, long kind of self-indulgent post but for me Trump vs Clinton is the 3rd example. Trump gets slated so roundly on social media you'd think he had no chance. And bookie odds generally agree. And yet those polls don't agree at all. And I'm wondering if social media truly does paint things far more left-wing than what people are actually thinking. If so Trump wins.
Or if I'm wrong he loses.
But I think it's vaguely fascinating, and fwiw I think he'll win.
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Comments
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I agree; as you say, what immediately strikes me too is some of the similarities between this election and our own referendum.
Bookies odds (as you said; proven wrong in our referendum).
Polls mostly showing Clinton ahead. (As indeed Remain were consistently.)
Social media "slating" of Trump ( yup, and on these very forums it was - and indeed still is, to some degree - the derision of "Brexiteers").
The only thing I would add is - that in the USA it is more about money.
The deepest pocket is the one most-likely to win, by the simple expedient of affording a better campaign via publicity.
Enough said, then. 0 -
The unemployed - left
Students - left
public sector workers - left
Private sector workers - right
Retirees - right
Sizable underclass in the USA who haven't benefited from the "boom". So you can forget your distinctions. Highly likely not to use social media widely. How many will turn out to vote? That's the unknown.0 -
Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0
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Donald Trump - How to build a Wall
Luckily we have the English Channel (still doesn't stop us though).
Calais migrants: Work to start on UK-funded wall
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-372941870 -
An alternative view
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-is-trump-gaining-on-clinton/?ex_cid=2016-forecastFew people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0 -
Wow......!!!0
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Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0
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Good call Fella!0
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I said on February 23rd in my Trump thread in DT that he could well be President, that everyone was underestimating 'the clown'
This is all about people feeling ignored by and looked down upon by the liberal establishment, particularly the political and media class
In Britain we have Tim Fallon and Corbyn still telling people thier lived experiences are irrelevant, that if they were educated about mass immigration, they would change their minds and see it as positive.
It's this relentless arrogance and dismissal of real lived experiences that has the left and liberal class being thrown out of office accross the west0 -
chucknorris wrote: »The ftse is going to take one hell of a hit this morning!
FTSE is actually UP........ at the moment!0
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