Wow 50% here we come

Guy_Montag

lypsey wrote: »

Generali
You say "That's asking prices. It's not possible to say HPs are falling until Land Registry figures show falling prices"
When I was at school a long time ago if the asking prices were lower then then the selling price WILL be lower , not really sure what you are getting at though

Adrock
Please bear in mind that this will not happen over night , but if you take a look at the figures that are down 3.8% in ONE MONTH...........................

Not necessarily - see my example here, where no change in asking prices shows a distinct & sudden drop solely due to the introduction of hips. The hips themselves will have little impact, but the step change causes a perturbation in HPI indices.

(btw. I want prices to fall as much as you do, but jumping on something minor, easily explained away, does the cause no good at all. LR YoY going negative is when I call it.)

Generali

lypsey wrote: »

Generali
You say "That's asking prices. It's not possible to say HPs are falling until Land Registry figures show falling prices"
When I was at school a long time ago if the asking prices were lower then then the selling price WILL be lower , not really sure what you are getting at though

It could be that HIPs have taken out a lot of houses that are way above market price, for example.

It doesn't follow that because asking prices fall, prices paid will fall.

I still think houses are way overvalued. I just disagree with the logic that house prices acheived at sale fall just because asking prices fall.

dannyboycey

Guy_Montag wrote: »

LR YoY going negative is when I call it.)

This could be well into 2008. But there as there will be no grounds for dispute then, I think this will be when the media start using the 'C' word, which will only serve to exacerbate falls.

lypsey

Generali

Please explain "It doesn't follow that because asking prices fall, prices paid will fall. "

wayne42

Alan Greenspan warns of UK house prices drop


:eek:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=13RUITNPZI3UBQFIQMGSFFWAVCBQWIV0?xml=/money/2007/09/17/cngrspan117.xml

Generali

lypsey wrote: »

Generali

Please explain "It doesn't follow that because asking prices fall, prices paid will fall. "

To take an in extremis argument, if I advertise my house in the local paper for £10, I will get a lot of people round to see it. There is likely to be a bidding war and I end up getting a lot more than a tenner for it. If I advertise it for around the market price, I may well end up selling it for the same amount.

The price in the estate agent's window is an opening for negotiation, not a fixed figure. If asking prices fall a little (by 2.x% in this case, on average) that could well be within the discounts that buyers have been negotiating in the past. If house sellers insist on, and buyers agree to, lower discounts on the 'sticker price' then actual selling price can remain the same.

You can see from the below that the selling price as a proportion of asking price varies.

lypsey

Generali , you are completely insane , everyone knows that the average asking price in the country is about 94%.
Do you seriulsy think that this will change because house prices are falling , I actually think that the average price will fall closer to 90% as buyers take the upper hand

Also if their are 5 houses for sale in the same town at the same price . are they going to bid more??? Duh

Generali

lypsey wrote: »

Generali , you are completely insane ,

Not far off the truth. Latest plan is to cycle Sydney-Melbourne.

lypsey wrote: »

everyone knows that the average asking price in the country is about 94%.
Do you seriulsy think that this will change because house prices are falling , I actually think that the average price will fall closer to 90% as buyers take the upper hand

Also if their are 5 houses for sale in the same town at the same price . are they going to bid more???

I didn't say that falling asking prices won't lead to lower selling prices. I said that they weren't one and the same thing.

lypsey wrote: »

Duh

Typo?

dannyboycey

wayne42 wrote: »

Alan Greenspan warns of UK house prices drop


:eek:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=13RUITNPZI3UBQFIQMGSFFWAVCBQWIV0?xml=/money/2007/09/17/cngrspan117.xml

Looks like an old man stating the bleeding obvious to me.

nobblyned

As Generali was saying I think HIPS has had a major impact on this number. A lot of the larger more expensive houses were rushed on before the introduction, and the flow of those has now been stemmed to some degree. This would have shown an increase in average prices followed by a fall, precisely what we have seen.

This just indicated a change in the mix of the houses, the fact that the average house price has gone down, tells you little about the price of the average house.

As an example, say I sell second hand cars and I manage to sell the one and only ferrari that I have. The average price of the cars that I have for sale on my lot will decrease subsequently, this dosn't mean that the Mondeo sitting up the corner has got any cheaper however...

The interesting data will be the mix adjusted indicators and the land registry figures where this anomaly will be removed.