Wow 50% here we come

Generali

nelly wrote: »

No their init for the long run mate

It's just as well house prices only ever go up!

jubblyjimbo

pickles110564 wrote: »

Only if you are really stupid and sell up, you might get some people who have to sell but there aint gonna be loads of houses on sale to make your cloud in the cuckoo land dream come true.

Get real you just keep dreaming because you are bitter because you put your hand down your trousers but could find nothing there so you missed the boat and have been paying for it ever since, causing you to try and scare others to make you feel better

Of course that assumes that people don't have to sell. In fact with mortgage rates rising and a credit crunch a lot of people might have to sell. Thats how crashes start, and then market sentiment takes over.

Don't get me wrong, I don't want a crash. In two years I was planning to be debt free (not the mortgage obviously), equity rich from ever spiralling house prices, and be able to cash it all in and go and live in Canada or Australia where I have permanent residency. If prices crash my escape the rat race plan won't work! Can't we keep the house price boom going for just two more years? Please?

Turnbull2000

It's frightening to hear Alan Greenspan admit he never envisaged the trouble resulting from sub-prime lending (and the equivalent in the UK - we have a very real 'sub-prime' issue over here, as much as they try to hide it), yet these so called 'nutters' on web forums have been right all along.

jubblyjimbo

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

It's frightening to hear Alan Greenspan admit he never envisaged the trouble resulting from sub-prime lending (and the equivalent in the UK - we have a very real 'sub-prime' issue over here, as much as they try to hide it), yet these so called 'nutters' on web forums have been right all along.

I read in the paper the other day that 'genuine' subprime lending accounts for about 9% of borrowing i.e. people with adverse credit. However when you take into account self cert (people who've paid a lender an admin fee for not verifying their income), buy to let landlords (some subbing properties by hundreds of pounds per month), people who have borrowed five or six times their income, and interest only (people who cant afford a repayment) I'd say things are looking at least as bad as the US.

The critical thing here is interest rates, and thats where the credit crunch hits.

lypsey

Here are the figures

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/pdf/p/hpi/press/HousePriceIndex17September2007_0471.pdf

Go to page 4 or 5 and take a look at the maps . This was prior to all the problems with NR so you can expect falls of maybe 5%- 7% next month.

Before I get thrown to the wolves , if there are loss's of already 4.1% and NR has 20% of the loan market and there is no mortgages being offered maybe 5% is conservative.

nelly_2

Irelands having it


http://i241.photobucket.com/albums/ff247/Geckko/MailIPW2.jpg

Generali

lypsey wrote: »

Here are the figures

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/pdf/p/hpi/press/HousePriceIndex17September2007_0471.pdf

Go to page 4 or 5 and take a look at the maps . This was prior to all the problems with NR so you can expect falls of maybe 5%- 7% next month.

Before I get thrown to the wolves , if there are loss's of already 4.1% and NR has 20% of the loan market and there is no mortgages being offered maybe 5% is conservative.

That's asking prices. It's not possible to say HPs are falling until Land Registry figures show falling prices.

Taking Northern Rock out of the market (and in effect everyone else that's borrowing short and lending long) will cause the market to fall hard and fast IMHO though. This will trim the lending of virtually every mortgage provider (excluding HSBC if memory serves) as they've almost all been doing this to some extent. Just NRK more than the others.

adr0ck

can someone please explain what 50% fall would mean

Certain properties round my way are now going for £195,000 up from £170,000 in 2003/4.

Which equals a 15% increase in 3/4 years (seems to be about right for most properties round here)

Most of you guys on here are saying that theres going to be a 50% fall

does that mean properties round here(from the above example) will fall to less than £100,000?

lypsey

Generali
You say "That's asking prices. It's not possible to say HPs are falling until Land Registry figures show falling prices"
When I was at school a long time ago if the asking prices were lower then then the selling price WILL be lower , not really sure what you are getting at though

Adrock
Please bear in mind that this will not happen over night , but if you take a look at the figures that are down 3.8% in ONE MONTH...........................

dannyboycey

A 50% drop is a possibility but it could take 3 or 4 years to get there so don't hold your breath. Also, don't assume you can wait till they drop and pop down to your local EA to pick up a bargain. Unless you have some form of capital to put down, you are unlikely to get any more than 3 times your salary max (which is the way it should be IMO). This is because lenders are likely to drop 100% mortgages and stipulate much higher deposits.