House prices up? But asking prices are falling!

TheCountofNowhere

p1212 wrote: »

while prices are falling 50-100K per year I am actually saving a lot of money by renting.

What kind of fantasy land do you live in?

kayfaz

p1212 wrote: »

I don't think I will pay more, even though I am in much better financial position than in 2014.

Paying rent is actually not that bad in the current climate especially when you factor in falling prices. I've seen a house 100K cheaper than last year.

I am actually happy with how things are happening at the moment, while prices are falling 50-100K per year I am actually saving a lot of money by renting.

Do you have an example of a sold price anywhere in the UK that has sold for 100k cheaper than last year?

TheCountofNowhere

kayfaz wrote: »

Do you have an example of a sold price anywhere in the UK that has sold for 100k cheaper than last year?

Pretty sure he has just seen 1 house with a reduced asking price.

p1212

kayfaz wrote: »

Do you have an example of a sold price anywhere in the UK that has sold for 100k cheaper than last year?

I have multiple examples of houses having 100K cheaper asking price than same houses sold for last year.

TheCountofNowhere

p1212 wrote: »

I have multiple examples of houses having 100K cheaper asking price than same houses sold for last year.

Fantastic!

Please share the links of your multiple examples.

I won't hold my breath.

mwpt

p1212 wrote: »

I have multiple examples of houses having 100K cheaper asking price than same houses sold for last year.

Could you post some please?

kayfaz

Can't wait for the links

cells

p1212 wrote: »

Prices are high now, because of debt supply and funny money, like my flat went up 20% I take out equity and I buy another one for essentially free. Then next year my two flats going up 20%, I take out 2x20% equity and buy two new ones. In the next year 4, 8, 16... That's why prices are sky high, cause people can pick up properties like this. (+ some QE money also flows into housing)

It is about the exponentially created FREE money supply - osbornes and carneys "recovery". The only problem is that it only works while prices are going up like in the last two years. When prices are falling and you have 25% equity on lets say 8 properties, a 10% fall will make you unable to remortgage, a 25% fall will eradicate your wealth and all the funny money from the system. At this point you might want to sell a few properties to save some of your equity, but everyone else will be in the same situation and will try to sell in the same time.

You can now witness the beginning of this, investors lost their mojo due to fading support from government and now they are sitting on mountains of debt with fading support for the underlying prices. They've stopped stopped buying -> London transaction numbers halved since april as most of London buys have been investors. This artificially created demand starts to disappear, hence supply goes up and asking prices decrease.

The ideas it will always go up, as young people will never be able to allowed to build and will be forever forced to give away more and more of their wages whle starting their life with tens of thousands of sutdent debt to keep up this system is totally nonsense.

Until now debt expansion was the big thing, but now in a lot of cities they've started to fight speculative money, vancouver, singapore, they've banned airbnb in berlin, new york. Public view is now shifting, you can expect more of this and it will start in London too at some point.

It can be changed overnight, foreign buyers can be taxed like in vancouver, planning could be eased overnight, all of these things will have more and more support.

In the best case you have max. 3-5 years having fun with property, until the first few generation comes out from the uni with 30K student debt, 30K salary and 2K london rent.

What do you think everyone will live in BTL flats and pay skiy high rents right next to the vast agricultural areas within M25? Zero chance, people are not idiots.

the problem is people have been saying the same for 10-20 years

I can think up a huge number of imaginary London mega-projectss that would add huge supply. I can think up a number of methods to make london a lot cheaper. But I know the chances of them happening are well below 10%

There is an inertia in politics and often in business which you like to dismiss with your 'things can change overnight' but they generally dont


London is expensive because there is a huge amount of Money in London a fact most people simply dont see or appreciate. Gifts and inheritances alone are in the ballpark of £50 billion annually in london. That is enough to run the property show without looking at incomes or foreign inflows etc.


The biggest and main risk to London prices and this has been true for a while is that the population stops growing by 100,000 a year. Brexit might do do this but then again it might not.

cells

ukcarper wrote: »

The number of people building up portfolios in the way you describe is small a lot of London new build has been to cater for foreign buyers and there is a possibility that it would not have been built if it weren't for foreign buyers.

Where is this vast amount of farmland inside the m25. I don't think in would be a bad thing if

London prices slowly fall but I'm not convinced it will happen.

people want to live in inner London (which is why inner London prices have gone up about twice as much over the last 20 years), the farmland and greenbelt is in outer London.

There is also a factor the crash cheerleaders dont think about. A lot of people want to live in expensive places. This might sound counterproductive why would people want to pay more for a similar product? But people pay £52k for a new BMW instead of £12k for a new ford even though both are brand new good cars.

cells

p1212 wrote: »

Literally EVERYONE jumped on the wagon in the last few years, even uneducated people on very low wages seem to have a few BTLs.

the UK private rental sector is about 5 million units, and there are about 2 million landlords most of whom only have 1 BTL

These people who have rentals are not that different a profile from owners. eg roughly something like 1/3rd own outright. 1/3rd have small mortgages and 1/3rd have bigger 50-80% LTV mortgages.

the UK private rental sector is not that high a percentage its close to the French levels and lower than the German levels.