House prices up? But asking prices are falling!

DonaldLMcVay

It is still in crisis I would say.Nation wide figures show that asking prices went up by 6% in August

p1212

ukcarper wrote: »

So what you are really saying when you say I can't afford to buy is that you can't afford to buy without a mortgage of 50% or smaller.

Prices are high now, because of debt supply and funny money, like my flat went up 20% I take out equity and I buy another one for essentially free. Then next year my two flats going up 20%, I take out 2x20% equity and buy two new ones. In the next year 4, 8, 16... That's why prices are sky high, cause people can pick up properties like this. (+ some QE money also flows into housing)

It is about the exponentially created FREE money supply - osbornes and carneys "recovery". The only problem is that it only works while prices are going up like in the last two years. When prices are falling and you have 25% equity on lets say 8 properties, a 10% fall will make you unable to remortgage, a 25% fall will eradicate your wealth and all the funny money from the system. At this point you might want to sell a few properties to save some of your equity, but everyone else will be in the same situation and will try to sell in the same time.

You can now witness the beginning of this, investors lost their mojo due to fading support from government and now they are sitting on mountains of debt with fading support for the underlying prices. They've stopped stopped buying -> London transaction numbers halved since april as most of London buys have been investors. This artificially created demand starts to disappear, hence supply goes up and asking prices decrease.

The ideas it will always go up, as young people will never be able to allowed to build and will be forever forced to give away more and more of their wages whle starting their life with tens of thousands of sutdent debt to keep up this system is totally nonsense.

Until now debt expansion was the big thing, but now in a lot of cities they've started to fight speculative money, vancouver, singapore, they've banned airbnb in berlin, new york. Public view is now shifting, you can expect more of this and it will start in London too at some point.

It can be changed overnight, foreign buyers can be taxed like in vancouver, planning could be eased overnight, all of these things will have more and more support.

In the best case you have max. 3-5 years having fun with property, until the first few generation comes out from the uni with 30K student debt, 30K salary and 2K london rent.

What do you think everyone will live in BTL flats and pay skiy high rents right next to the vast agricultural areas within M25? Zero chance, people are not idiots.

p1212

bluedrop wrote: »

I wonder why there is absolutely no reporting happening on this!
Where I live, asking prices are down more than 5% ! Many properties on the market for months!

Well most reports come from mortgage lenders, they want to talk up the market.

But other sources are reporting the falls, rightmove house price index measures asking prices, it said 2.6% falls last month in London.

Also BoE reported 5% month on month falls in transaction numbers, that is 12% down year on year.

ukcarper

p1212 wrote: »

Prices are high now, because of debt supply and funny money, like my flat went up 20% I take out equity and I buy another one for essentially free. Then next year my two flats going up 20%, I take out 2x20% equity and buy two new ones. In the next year 4, 8, 16... That's why prices are sky high, cause people can pick up properties like this. (+ some QE money also flows into housing)

It is about the exponentially created FREE money supply - osbornes and carneys "recovery". The only problem is that it only works while prices are going up like in the last two years. When prices are falling and you have 25% equity on lets say 8 properties, a 10% fall will make you unable to remortgage, a 25% fall will eradicate your wealth and all the funny money from the system. At this point you might want to sell a few properties to save some of your equity, but everyone else will be in the same situation and will try to sell in the same time.

You can now witness the beginning of this, investors lost their mojo due to fading support from government and now they are sitting on mountains of debt with fading support for the underlying prices. They've stopped stopped buying -> London transaction numbers halved since april as most of London buys have been investors. This artificially created demand starts to disappear, hence supply goes up and asking prices decrease.

The ideas it will always go up, as young people will never be able to allowed to build and will be forever forced to give away more and more of their wages whle starting their life with tens of thousands of sutdent debt to keep up this system is totally nonsense.

Until now debt expansion was the big thing, but now in a lot of cities they've started to fight speculative money, vancouver, singapore, they've banned airbnb in berlin, new york. Public view is now shifting, you can expect more of this and it will start in London too at some point.

It can be changed overnight, foreign buyers can be taxed like in vancouver, planning could be eased overnight, all of these things will have more and more support.

In the best case you have max. 3-5 years having fun with property, until the first few generation comes out from the uni with 30K student debt, 30K salary and 2K london rent.

What do you think everyone will live in BTL flats and pay skiy high rents right next to the vast agricultural areas within M25? Zero chance, people are not idiots.

The number of people building up portfolios in the way you describe is small a lot of London new build has been to cater for foreign buyers and there is a possibility that it would not have been built if it weren't for foreign buyers.

Where is this vast amount of farmland inside the m25. I don't think in would be a bad thing if

London prices slowly fall but I'm not convinced it will happen.

p1212

ukcarper wrote: »

The number of people building up portfolios in the way you describe is small a lot of London new build has been to cater for foreign buyers and there is a possibility that it would not have been built if it weren't for foreign buyers.

Where is this vast amount of farmland inside the m25. I don't think in would be a bad thing if

London prices slowly fall but I'm not convinced it will happen.

Literally EVERYONE jumped on the wagon in the last few years, even uneducated people on very low wages seem to have a few BTLs.

Also after the stamp duty changes transactions fall 50%. As genuine buyers buying their own home are unaffected by the stamp duty, that 50% is mainly investors.

I don't think there are a lot of foreign buyers in zone 5-6 plus further out in Greater London. The "foreign buyers" there are british people doing what I've just explained - trying to make a profit from tight planning - people does not have a choice, they have to compete on the existing stock with everyone.

Once planning changes - which will at some point - the pressure will be releived instantly and you can say goodbye for rising house prices for a decade at least...

ukcarper

p1212 wrote: »

Literally EVERYONE jumped on the wagon in the last few years, even uneducated people on very low wages seem to have a few BTLs.

Also after the stamp duty changes transactions fall 50%. As genuine buyers buying their own home are unaffected by the stamp duty, that 50% is mainly investors.

I don't think there are a lot of foreign buyers in zone 5-6 plus further out in Greater London. The "foreign buyers" there are british people doing what I've just explained - trying to make a profit from tight planning - people does not have a choice, they have to compete on the existing stock with everyone.

Once planning changes - which will at some point - the pressure will be releived instantly and you can say goodbye for rising house prices for a decade at least...

I'd like you to provide some figures because I don't believe you I'm a boomer and no one I know has done what you say. I know three people who are landlords one has bought another property in a different area and is renting out his old house without taking any equity from it, one has moved abroad and bought a house in a less expensive area to let and keep a foothold in this country and the other has bought several properties cash without touching equity in any property he owns.

wotsthat

I read on HPC that on this phase of the bubble curve you shouldn't think price increases are evidence of prices going up. It's what the MSM report and the PTB want you to believe. Just look at volumes and that's a proxy for falling prices.

I also read that Nationwide after each release craftily adjust prices downwards so when the next release comes out it shows an increase even though prices are falling.

I've been trying to buy a bigger place in the SW but have noted prices seem to be increasing. The wise owls would suggest I'm wrong and don't understand stats like they do. They've been proving on a daily basis for years that prime London has been crashing which is why a 2 bed terrace in Hackney now costs more than a place in Mayfair.

p1212

wotsthat wrote: »

I read on HPC that on this phase of the bubble curve you shouldn't think price increases are evidence of prices going up. It's what the MSM report and the PTB want you to believe. Just look at volumes and that's a proxy for falling prices.

I also read that Nationwide after each release craftily adjust prices downwards so when the next release comes out it shows an increase even though prices are falling.

I've been trying to buy a bigger place in the SW but have noted prices seem to be increasing. The wise owls would suggest I'm wrong and don't understand stats like they do. They've been proving on a daily basis for years that prime London has been crashing which is why a 2 bed terrace in Hackney now costs more than a place in Mayfair.

If you want to buy and you don't believe in nonsense like crashes, dropping prices, etc, then why do you read HPC and why are you commenting here? Just go and buy...

AnotherJoe

p1212 wrote: »

Literally EVERYONE jumped on the wagon in the last few years, even uneducated people on very low wages seem to have a few BTLs.
...

If "literally EVERYONE" is a landlord with several houses, who on earth are they renting to ???

AnotherJoe

wotsthat wrote: »

I read on HPC that on this phase of the bubble curve you shouldn't think price increases are evidence of prices going up. It's what the MSM report and the PTB want you to believe. Just look at volumes and that's a proxy for falling prices.

I also read that Nationwide after each release craftily adjust prices downwards so when the next release comes out it shows an increase even though prices are falling.

I've been trying to buy a bigger place in the SW but have noted prices seem to be increasing. The wise owls would suggest I'm wrong and don't understand stats like they do. They've been proving on a daily basis for years that prime London has been crashing which is why a 2 bed terrace in Hackney now costs more than a place in Mayfair.

LOL. Yep George Orwell had it right when he wrote about doublethink.

So, if house prices are going up, that means they are going down? No doubt house prices staying the same also mean they are going down? Or indeed if a pigeon flies past your house, that also is indicative of prices going down?