Am I making a mistake by delaying investing?

fairleads

Pincher
A 30%+ profit in less than a year, that is worth more than three annual dividends, triggers a sell for me.

grey_gym_sock

if you're worried about brexit, then just make sure that a low percentage of your portfolio is in UK equities. that's probably a good idea anyway. for instance, you could put your equities in a world equity tracker, which would give you only c. 8% in UK shares.

that said, if you're worried about a sudden fall of 30% in shares, that can happen at any time, regardless of which equities you buy (UK or overseas). you either need to accept that, or to drip-feed your money into the markets (e.g. monthly) so that you have more money going in that will benefit from any fall (by buying the cut-price shares which are then on offer).

Thrugelmir

AddictedSaver wrote: »

Just gut instinct like I said, it's probably due to me being uneducated about the markets and economics that isn't helping me with me thoughts.

Here's a thought for you. Only 5% of UK companies export to the EU.

fairleads

AddictedSaver wrote: »

Am I making a mistake by waiting to invest .

I don't think so.

talexuser

wneil wrote: »

If you have time on your side then looking short-term will probably cost you more long-term.

Well put.
Many studies have shown time in the market beats trying to time the market, the compounding of dividends not invested while in cash hurts long term. If worried about a 30% fall you should not be in the market, eventually the market recovers, and you should be in a position to wait for that recovery without having to sell.

fairleads

talexuser wrote: »

Well put.
Many studies have shown time in the market beats trying to time the market.

However, because the studies are based upon a false premise, i beg to differ.

masonic

fairleads wrote: »

However, because the studies are based upon a false premise, i beg to differ.

There's no point begging. The only way to refute those peer reviewed studies is with a well reasoned rebuttal.

fairleads

masonic wrote: »

There's no point begging. The only way to refute those peer reviewed studies is with a well reasoned rebuttal.

Its quite simple, all the examples i have seen aren't representative of real life situations because the example is married to one investment - a market index.

tg99

EdGasket wrote: »

You could wait for the next US rate hike; only a matter of months away. Interest rates on the rise will scare the markets.

Not necessarily. Fed has been talking up interest rate rises / rolling back of QE for years and constantly 'disappoints'. At start of this year expectations were for 3-4 25bp rises this year. And the longer term 'neutral rate' estimate has continued to be sliced too.

EdGasket

talexuser wrote: »

Well put.
Many studies have shown time in the market beats trying to time the market, the compounding of dividends not invested while in cash hurts long term. If worried about a 30% fall you should not be in the market, eventually the market recovers, and you should be in a position to wait for that recovery without having to sell.

But taking an immediate 30% hit on your investments can't be the best way to maximise returns short or long-term.

Here are some ways of measuring whether FTSE is expensive or not:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/24/uk-stock-market-overvalued-on-buffetts-favourite-measure/

It was from April 2016 but concludes overall that the market is looking expensive; even more so now I'd say with Brexit still to be worked out.