Today's Bear food

p1212

westernpromise wrote: »

The more you hear from crash trolls the clearer it is that they're poor not because it's a conspiracy, but because they're, well....thick.

Whenever I read anything from P1212 I am reminded of the Dunning Kruger effect:
http://www.patheos.com/blogs/crossexamined/2015/02/the-dunning-kruger-effect-are-the-stupid-too-stupid-to-realize-theyre-stupid/

Sorry, but when prices are falling the troll is not who says prices are falling...

cells

westernpromise wrote: »

The more you hear from crash trolls the clearer it is that they're poor not because it's a conspiracy, but because they're, well....thick.

Whenever I read anything from P1212 I am reminded of the Dunning Kruger effect:
http://www.patheos.com/blogs/crossexamined/2015/02/the-dunning-kruger-effect-are-the-stupid-too-stupid-to-realize-theyre-stupid/

Its more to do with group think and conformation bias. Before the days of the internet the nutters were so far and few that their nuttyness was corrected by the norms of society. Now with the internet they easily find each other and work up a sotrm of confirmation bias and you get a house price crash meme that has been calling for an imminent crash for 20 years.

cells

p1212 wrote: »

Sorry, but when prices are falling the troll is not who says prices are falling...

Prices may fall but they won't reach the levels the crash cheerleaders want so they will miss another buying opportunity.

2009-2011 was a good buying opportunity yet the crash cheerleaders were jumping up and down that the bug crash was fiablly there. They didn't spot that bottom of the market and 7 years on they now cry for a crash to reverse just half that gains.

You too will miss any buying opertunity as prices won't go to 3x average wages diluted by children and part time workers.

p1212

cells wrote: »

Prices may fall but they won't reach the levels the crash cheerleaders want so they will miss another buying opportunity.

2009-2011 was a good buying opportunity yet the crash cheerleaders were jumping up and down that the bug crash was fiablly there. They didn't spot that bottom of the market and 7 years on they now cry for a crash to reverse just half that gains.

You too will miss any buying opertunity as prices won't go to 3x average wages diluted by children and part time workers.

Everything that I said about speculative money is true, if you don't agree that is your problem. I don't know how far prices will fall, they can kick the can down the road a bit more, but sooner or later asset price/wages ratio will come down. It was clear in 2008, it is even more clear today. Everyone knows this, central bankers, government, literally everyone. The fact that prices went up in the last two year and the ones who didn't listen to "crash trolls" in 2010-2012 made a bit of a money and they now think they've been clever, means absolutely nothing on the bigger scale.

I personally don't care about how far prices will fall, while it would be more comfortable to stay here and have a good life, I can freely go to somewhere else and a lot of young ones with good education will follow...

cells

p1212 wrote: »

The fact that prices went up in the last two year and the ones who didn't listen to "crash trolls" in 2010-2012 made a bit of a money and they now think they've been clever, means absolutely nothing on the bigger scale.

it means a hell of a lot

Those who bought in London in 2010 and ignored the crash cheerleaders have housing that is half the cost than if they had waited to now.

I personally don't care about how far prices will fall, while it would be more comfortable to stay here and have a good life, I can freely go to somewhere else and a lot of young ones with good education will follow...

so what you are saying is, if prices fall big time you will stay in London and if they dont you will leave for another country

Dont you realise that is why prices are high and will stay high?

London population is growing by 100,000 a year and that is with the help of high prices pushing people out and limiting people from coming in. How much would the population of London grow if houses were as cheap as in birmingham?

lisyloo

p1212 wrote: »

I can freely go to somewhere else and a lot of young ones with good education will follow...

I find it remarkably unsurprising that you have no-one to stay for, you don't come across as a happy, loved and fulfilled person. Not everyone will leave, some will have close family, maybe their own partner or children, friends or family they want to stay around for.

Why do you think we all don't live in the cheapest places?

Mortgagefreeman

Most of the HPC crowd have realised the game is up. They made a disastrous short call on property, and lost. They refused to admit their mistakes, and in doing so, made their situations even worse. You only need to take a short visit to the site to see how bitter they are.

Happy days

mwpt

lisyloo wrote: »

I find it remarkably unsurprising that you have no-one to stay for, you don't come across as a happy, loved and fulfilled person. Not everyone will leave, some will have close family, maybe their own partner or children, friends or family they want to stay around for.

Why do you think we all don't live in the cheapest places?

I don't think this sort of ad hominem is helpful or called for. This p1212 may feel differently about the economics of house prices, but why does that lead to insults and name calling (crash troll)?

cells

mwpt wrote: »

I don't think this sort of ad hominem is helpful or called for. This p1212 may feel differently about the economics of house prices, but why does that lead to insults and name calling (crash troll)?

its human nature, and not all that harmful, look at the countless times parliament tried to 'keep it more civil' and yet its the same as it always was

Its odd in some ways, if you meet a stranger for the first time you have a calm quiet sober discussion. if you discuss something with a friend you will tease and even possibly lightly insult and its not all negative



PS: its also often just a shorthand. I call them 'crash cheerleaders' as it quite nicely (in my view) sums up their approach and I dont feel that is much of a insult. I dont think they are trolls.

cells

Mortgagefreeman wrote: »

Most of the HPC crowd have realised the game is up.

It would be interesting to see how many active posters are not active there anymore

They made a disastrous short call on property, and lost.

Yes, sadly this now biases their views

They refused to admit their mistakes, and in doing so, made their situations even worse. You only need to take a short visit to the site to see how bitter they are.

Yes. This is also the crucial difference between the crash wishers and the 'bulls'. When/if prices go down the bulls dont blame anyone and maybe feel a bit sad about their mistakes but get on with it. The crash wishers feel the need to try and induce a crash by talking down the market and vilifying those who buy

Happy days

I dont agree with that. Ive said for a long time I think most of the crash wishers are in a position where they cannot buy even if prices were 25% off today. The sad bit is if they realized this they could potentially work to fix that (eg get a partner and buy as a couple, or move to a cheaper part of the country) instead of hoping to fix the situation by 'fixing the market' by hoping for two thirds off within a handful of years