Dodgy threads on here

Fosterdog

I'm sure the majority of these new posters are genuine. I'm in the process of buying as a FTB and I'm buying what I plan on being my home for life (unless I come into a windfall and can one day afford a small holding) so to me I know I got a good offer accepted and am happy with the price I got the house for.

If I was buying as an investment and planning on moving again in a few years I wouldn't be so sure about continuing with the purchase at this time, most people can't afford to take the risk of being in negative equaty for the sake of holding out to see where the market goes.

Money_saving_maniac

Spoke to my broker today and he's saying the BTL guys are dropping out, and obviously there will be some normal buyer drop outs too.
It really does depend on your situation. So to me it sounds sensible that you're continuing, Fosterdog

TrickyTree83

Crashy_Time wrote: »

BTL tax changes mean there is no point in the little guy "buying up lots of property" anymore. It is now a total mugs game.

Never mentioned "the little guy", so who might actually be taking advantage of a crashed market - those who already have money.

TrickyTree83

Fosterdog wrote: »

I'm sure the majority of these new posters are genuine. I'm in the process of buying as a FTB and I'm buying what I plan on being my home for life (unless I come into a windfall and can one day afford a small holding) so to me I know I got a good offer accepted and am happy with the price I got the house for.

If I was buying as an investment and planning on moving again in a few years I wouldn't be so sure about continuing with the purchase at this time, most people can't afford to take the risk of being in negative equaty for the sake of holding out to see where the market goes.

This is exactly what I've been advocating.

Far too many people in the UK, and on these threads, appear to think that house purchasing is either all about or mostly involves investment thinking, it should be the other way around.

If you're buying a home that you're going to stay in then it's likely you will ride out any bumps in the road and they'll be a distant memory in future as many millions of households have done since home ownership became available to the masses.

So if you have a mortgage and you're buying in an area, don't try to artificially price it 20% lower so you make a buck or two because in the long run new buyers when you are selling might price you down and your original purchase affected the price for the area and as such your house (good one!), your neighbours down and so on... in a race to the bottom where market confidence is completely smashed.

It may seem bizarre but if everyone stayed calm and carried on as normal any drop in prices will be less and the majority of home buyers (not investment buyers) will be fine in the long run.

Crashy_Time

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Never mentioned "the little guy", so who might actually be taking advantage of a crashed market - those who already have money.

Unless the "little guy" has money (credit, wages) as well though these people can`t make money (rent and capital appreciation) There is a lot of economic pain to come before we are even close to starting the debt/credit cycle again, and it is because those with power and money have tried to avoid this necessary correction that we have massive anomalies popping up in the political and economic system (Trump, Brexit, central banks losing control, markets detached from real economy etc.) Taking on big property debt now is something many will come to regret IMO.

Crashy_Time

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

This is exactly what I've been advocating.

Far too many people in the UK, and on these threads, appear to think that house purchasing is either all about or mostly involves investment thinking, it should be the other way around.

If you're buying a home that you're going to stay in then it's likely you will ride out any bumps in the road and they'll be a distant memory in future as many millions of households have done since home ownership became available to the masses.

So if you have a mortgage and you're buying in an area, don't try to artificially price it 20% lower so you make a buck or two because in the long run new buyers when you are selling might price you down and your original purchase affected the price for the area and as such your house (good one!), your neighbours down and so on... in a race to the bottom where market confidence is completely smashed.

It may seem bizarre but if everyone stayed calm and carried on as normal any drop in prices will be less and the majority of home buyers (not investment buyers) will be fine in the long run.

House prices are driven by credit and sentiment, if both are increasing then house prices will increase, and of course this is the phase we have just been through, "new paradigm", "supply and demand", "not making any more land" and all the other nonsense. It was a global credit bubble, nothing more, nothing less, and when it finally pops people will wonder what the hell they were doing signing up to a lifetime of debt slavery for an average flat in a nothing special part of London.

TrickyTree83

Crashy_Time wrote: »

House prices are driven by credit and sentiment, if both are increasing then house prices will increase, and of course this is the phase we have just been through, "new paradigm", "supply and demand", "not making any more land" and all the other nonsense. It was a global credit bubble, nothing more, nothing less, and when it finally pops people will wonder what the hell they were doing signing up to a lifetime of debt slavery for an average flat in a nothing special part of London.

I understand you believe it will pop. It might. But making it happen and having it happen due to external influences are two very different things. Should the market grow at a pace which is below the level of wage increases or should the market stagnate we would be correcting the balance whilst not screwing everyone over, which is better for the existing home owners, better for the banks, better for the exchequer and moderately better for first time buyers in the longer run.

Crashy_Time

Quizzical_Squirrel wrote: »

I have to agree that MO is a typical housepricecrasher tactic. They've done it many times before on this forum and others (e.g. Mumsnet).

They're all about influencing sentiment so they may invent situations to suit this agenda. Sometimes they've discussed how they're doing it on their forum and how to give the right level of detail so people fall for it.

While I haven't particularly noticed any dodgy threads at the moment, it does no harm to remember that they absolutely would do this and I'd be surprised if they didn't do it again. I just can't see them passing up this opportunity.

So don't take everything you see at face value. It may be genuine or it may not. Don't let it influence the right decision for you.

No, back when everyone and their dog was piling into property HPC was a voice in the wilderness, seeking to change sentiment, and failing, now events have happened (that were predicted many moons ago on HPC to be "seismic events" for the property market) and the consequences of those events will play out in the real property market, not the virtual internet version, regardless of what anyone posts on an internet forum. I bet many more will regret listening to all the "Go on, buy!", "Well done!", "You have done the right thing!", "Forever Home" claptrap than will regret pausing for thought at the odd HPC comment.

Crashy_Time

I honestly don`t know whether to think posters on here believing that people from the HPC forum need to "invent situations" to drive an "agenda" in the wake of a BREXIT vote is funny or just tragic?

TrickyTree83

You're forgetting that at the moment absolutely nothing has changed.

We're still in the EU, no one knows what deal we will get.

We may get a great deal and things continue to plod along as normal but these people will have lost out on a purchase because they listened to the doom mongers.

Ultimately it'll be worse for the majority to artificially push prices down before anything has actually happened in terms of brexit, FTB's would benefit from that though.

If everyone carried on as normal there will be very few who would lose out if prices fell due to external factors rather than internal and self-inflicted factors.