Will Brexit lead to a recession

Conrad

StevieJ wrote: »

The Ftse 250 is down over 7% weren't these the small companies that would gain from Brexit and a removal of red tape ?

7% is just market noise, business will carry on no problems


Anyway cheaper stocks are great if you have an ISA or Pension and buy stocks monthly (pound cost averaging) - I always see price falls as excellent opportunities

Rinoa

StevieJ wrote: »

The Ftse 250 is down over 7% weren't these the small companies that would gain from Brexit and a removal of red tape ?

7% is a small fraction of what we were threatened with. First day after the vote it's not particularly surprising and I very much doubt they will be down 7% in a couple of weeks time.

AG47

theEnd wrote: »

I can't see how they can avoid a recession.

Even if long term this isn't that bad, short term lots of people will spend less and investment will dry up.

Who would buy a house now? Who would move to the UK? Who would start making long term plans to stay?

Good points, why buy property now when you know prices are falling?

AG47

This is the worst period, I recall since I've been in public service. There's nothing like it, including the crisis — remember October 19th, 1987, when the Dow went down by a record amount 23 percent? That I thought was the bottom of all potential problems. This has a corrosive effect that will not go away. I'd love to find something positive to say."

Greenspan: "This is the Worst Period I Recall"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-24/greenspan-worst-period-i-recall-theres-nothing-it

Maddermanblue1

We're already in a recession, have been for almost a decade.

Thrugelmir

Who said that the issues of the GFC have been resolved? Been a lot of papering over the cracks while globally debt levels have grown considerably.

Brexit may even cause a much needed correction. Cheap money is enabling zombie companies to survive. Whereas recessions cause a good clear out.

HornetSaver

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Brexit may even cause a much needed correction. Cheap money is enabling zombie companies to survive. Whereas recessions cause a good clear out.

Probably the most sensible thing I've seen from a Brexiteer so far (I think you underestimate the depth of damage that a short, sharp withdrawal of cheap money will cause, but respect your opinion). Watching most of the others try to pretend that there isn't going to be one is utterly hilarious. I know it's not the done thing to name individual people, but let's do it anyway: CLAPTON, Conrad, Rinoa. Absolutely blooming hilarious watching them with their heads in the clouds, seeing what's coming in the short-to-medium term but not being able to bring themselves to admit it. :rotfl:

I always said before the referendum that it's not a question of whether there will be an economic downturn if we leave, but where do we stand when it has all cleared up. I actually respected the argument that a corrective recession would have been a price worth playing for the levers we would get back, so fair play to you. But even now most of the leave voters have their heads in the clounds. Sure, they no doubt believe that they made the right decision (as do the majority of those who voted). Fair enough. But being unable to admit that your position is not a direct path to the land of milk and honey is not so much building site politics as Peter Pan politics.

lisyloo

AG47 wrote: »

Good points, why buy property now when you know prices are falling?

Two logically sound reasons I can think of.

Your perfect dream home comes up for sale and you might have to wait a long time for that to happen again I.e. You pay a premium for rarity value.

Simply the money you save on rent makes it worth it even considering the capital loss. Of course that would be speculation because we don't know the future loss, but we do know the equivalent rent.

CLAPTON

HornetSaver wrote: »

Probably the most sensible thing I've seen from a Brexiteer so far (I think you underestimate the depth of damage that a short, sharp withdrawal of cheap money will cause, but respect your opinion). Watching most of the others try to pretend that there isn't going to be one is utterly hilarious. I know it's not the done thing to name individual people, but let's do it anyway: CLAPTON, Conrad, Rinoa. Absolutely blooming hilarious watching them with their heads in the clouds, seeing what's coming in the short-to-medium term but not being able to bring themselves to admit it. :rotfl:

I always said before the referendum that it's not a question of whether there will be an economic downturn if we leave, but where do we stand when it has all cleared up. I actually respected the argument that a corrective recession would have been a price worth playing for the levers we would get back, so fair play to you. But even now most of the leave voters have their heads in the clounds. Sure, they no doubt believe that they made the right decision (as do the majority of those who voted). Fair enough. But being unable to admit that your position is not a direct path to the land of milk and honey is not so much building site politics as Peter Pan politics.

you are correct
people convinced they are right rarely see any problems with their proposed path