Will Brexit lead to a recession

HornetSaver

Go on, now that the vote is done, nail your colours to the mast on what is actually going to happen.

theEnd

I can't see how they can avoid a recession.

Even if long term this isn't that bad, short term lots of people will spend less and investment will dry up.

Who would buy a house now? Who would move to the UK? Who would start making long term plans to stay?

HornetSaver

Interesting that no-one has had the courage to state that there will not be a recession.

stator

Before brexit we were predicted to enter a recession anyway, so we probably still will enter a recession. Whether it will be better or worse is impossible to say.

HornetSaver

Before Brexit, we were predicted to enter a recession if we were to vote for Leave. The wise sages dismissed this as scaremongering. Do any of them have the courage to state, now, that Brexit won't cause a recession?

I've nailed my colours to the mast, are any of them big enough to back their convictions? Or have each and every one of them given up any pretence that we are headed for anything other than recession (silently voting for No because they don't have the courage, knowledge or conviction to state it publicly)?

Wednesday2000

I'm not an expert, but I assume it will lead to a recession.:(

CLAPTON

I believe in 'no more boom and bust' so I don't think there will ever be a recession again : of course there may be a 'technical' recession but that's another thing altogether.

michaels

I would have thought the fall in the pound will lead to an improvement in the economy. Look at 'black Wednesday', despite the economic gloom the economy surged.

Sapphire

I think there may be a worldwide recession anyway – the EU is falling apart, and globally things don't look too good, either. We've been living in an over-inflated bubble, as per the 'things can only get better' statements coined by Blair. As long as people have been careful not to over-extend themselves thinking 'the good times will never end', they should be OK.

Or there may not be a recession. I'm now optimistic about the future, since I feel we've regained our sovereignty and will not be forced into this undemocratic 'ever-closer political union' idea, which was one of my main concerns. Our politicians will have to connect with the people more, now there won't be the 'fall-back option' of blaming everything on the EU.

Masomnia

Go on then I'll have a go.

Clearly there has been an economic impact, but I don't think it has been quite as bad as people have stated. The FTSE 100 has plunged to levels not seen since.... last week.

GBP/USD is down significantly, granted, but not by anything like some of the doomsday scenarios of 20% drops.

Investment will slow no doubt, but that will be mitigated imho by the lower currency. Will people spend less? Well, most people voted for this, so not necessarily. Imports from the EU will be more expensive, GBP isn't down on the Euro by anything like as much as it is on the dollar; the rate is where it was in 2014 and it's not the case that we were all struggling to buy goods then.

People will still move here, we're still members of the EU for the next two years at least and they will move here before any conditions are imposed when we leave.

Masomnia

michaels wrote: »

I would have thought the fall in the pound will lead to an improvement in the economy. Look at 'black Wednesday', despite the economic gloom the economy surged.

I'm cautiously optimistic that we are looking at a [STRIKE]Black [/STRIKE]White Wednesday scenario where things look bad to begin with and then follow years of growth as the constrains are lifted.