Will Brexit lead to a recession

movilogo

House price will go down for sure

theEnd

Masomnia wrote: »

People will still move here, we're still members of the EU for the next two years at least and they will move here before any conditions are imposed when we leave.

If you were a young educated eastern european, I'm not sure you'd now come to the UK.

Even some of those that have been here for a while, but not put down roots, might consider heading home.

There's difficult times ahead.

coastline

michaels wrote: »

I would have thought the fall in the pound will lead to an improvement in the economy. Look at 'black Wednesday', despite the economic gloom the economy surged.

Set the link to 10 years and I can't see what all the fuss is about the pound has been in that lower range since 2008..

http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=GBPUSD&ei=GCBtV4jcGNXBUauzrLAP

The FTSE is currently trading above last weeks levels at 6050 although things could change..
No recession for me unless its a worldwide event and already there's been comments from Europe that there needs to be reform regardless.

CLAPTON

theEnd wrote: »

If you were a young educated eastern european, I'm not sure you'd now come to the UK.

Even some of those that have been here for a while, but not put down roots, might consider heading home.

There's difficult times ahead.

and that will be a benefit to the UK

mayonnaise

movilogo wrote: »

House price will go down for sure

Yep, like in 2008-2009.
Recessions and house price drops do indeed go hand in hand.

Generali

michaels wrote: »

I would have thought the fall in the pound will lead to an improvement in the economy. Look at 'black Wednesday', despite the economic gloom the economy surged.

The base rate fell from 10% to under 6% in 4 months after Black Wednesday. That might have had an impact too.

I can't see a 4 percentage point cut in base rates from here. Can you?

antrobus

HornetSaver wrote: »

Go on, now that the vote is done, nail your colours to the mast on what is actually going to happen.

There is an increased probability of a recession. What we have now is uncertainty. Faced with uncertainty, businesses tend to defer investment decisions until the fog clears.

Rinoa

Ftse down a staggering 3.4% - just 1100 short of what remain were threatening.

As Andrea Leadsom, a Leave MP, says

"...there is just is not the evidence of a financial meltdown hitting the UK in the wake of the vote, as predicted by some Remain campaigners."

Sapphire

theEnd wrote: »

If you were a young educated eastern european, I'm not sure you'd now come to the UK.

Even some of those that have been here for a while, but not put down roots, might consider heading home.

There's difficult times ahead.

I know eastern Europeans (Poles specifically) and speak their lingo. I've spoken to many of the ones who come here, and also to people in Poland about who comes here. I can assure you that few of them are 'well educated'. They come mainly from small towns and villages where there is little work. When I hear them talking on public transport, they insert about three swearwords into every sentence they utter (that's the women as well as the men). My mother often used to pull them up when she heard this on public transport, and they looked suitable ashamed of themselves. However, many are decent people with a good work ethic (though there are some bad ones, too).

StevieJ

Rinoa wrote: »

Ftse down a staggering 3.4% - just 1100 short of what remain were threatening.

As Andrea Leadsom, a Leave MP, says

The Ftse 250 is down over 7% weren't these the small companies that would gain from Brexit and a removal of red tape ?