Referendum result - Predictions

CKhalvashi

(deleted photo)

I have no further comment to make publicly on the matter.

BobQ

HornetSaver wrote: »

I voted Remain, and based on your post I'm guessing you did too. Given that I backed the losing side, I'll be balanced on anything I'm not absolutely certain about until my pre-referendum positions are proven right.

That said, I'm certain that Gibraltar is in for a rough time, that there will be a recession very soon (though no idea how serious), and that we will see Scottish indyref2 in the pretty near future.

As for the longer term future of England... the majority of people disagreed with me, so as far as commentary goes I'm going to see how it plays out. I'll go back to being smug and outspoken if or when what I thought would happen actually happens.

Yes I did vote Remain. I was just suggesting that this is far to serious to be balanced!

Fella

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I sense a lassitude and aura of failure from the Leavers. I just hope they don't take out their disappointment by smashing up shops, hospitals and schools tomorrow.

Let's hope the remainers don't "take out their disappointment by smashing up shops, hospitals and schools."

Generali

vivatifosi wrote: »

Gen, if you are still about...

At times like this, what happens it terms of trading volumes? Is there a spike as people try to get out, is there a fall as people wait for stability, or do volumes stay relatively stable?

Volumes go through the roof as people reposition themselves to a more appropriate asset mix for the times.

Also when markets get very volatile things like stop losses get hit so automated selling starts happening.

It wouldn't surprise me if the LSE suspended trading for a day. Give people the weekend to think things over. Last time I looked, FTSE futures implied a fall in the market of almost 7%. I just don't see where the bid is going to come from right now.

HornetSaver

BobQ wrote: »

Yes I did vote Remain. I was just suggesting that this is far to serious to be balanced!

I'll say what I've said elsewhere:

I think the decision to run for election on a pledge of a referendum you are opposed to was stupid.

I think a lot of people who voted out were stupid, and it's my right to hold that opinion. But what's done is done. I believe in democracy - people voted for that government and voted to leave in that referendum. We now simply need to hope the politicians do not screw the withdrawal process up.

Fella

Generali wrote: »

It wouldn't surprise me if the LSE suspended trading for a day. Give people the weekend to think things over. Last time I looked, FTSE futures implied a fall in the market of almost 7%. I just don't see where the bid is going to come from right now.

UBS predicting a fall of 18% which would represent some buying oppurtunity IMO.

BobQ

HornetSaver wrote: »

I'll say what I've said elsewhere:

I think the decision to run for election on a pledge of a referendum you are opposed to was stupid.

I think a lot of people who voted out were stupid, and it's my right to hold that opinion. But what's done is done. I believe in democracy - people voted for that government and voted to leave in that referendum. We now simply need to hope the politicians do not screw the withdrawal process up.

I agree. My bet is that we do not given Article 50 notifcation. Andrew Neil has just told BBC that he has heard that there will be pressure from the EU to delay this for as long as 18 months (after the Fr election etc.)

But by them I suspect the consequences will be realised by those that supported this crazy decision, higher prices, higher interest rates and a few employers confirming their relocation etc.

HornetSaver

BobQ wrote: »

I agree. My bet is that we do not given Article 50 notifcation. Andrew Neil has just told BBC that he has heard that there will be pressure from the EU to delay this for as long as 18 months (after the Fr election etc.).

I'm listening to 5Live right now and they're basically saying the exact opposite - that Tusk and Juncker want us to trigger it as soon as possible, because if we don't do so we are free to pre-negotiate as much as we like, potentially putting us in a stronger position than if we start the clock ticking next week.

Generali

Fella wrote: »

UBS predicting a fall of 18% which would represent some buying oppurtunity IMO.

I must look up the rules but I'm sure the suspension of trading kicks in well before then.

vivatifosi

Is there anyone about this morning that voted leave? Where have they all gone?