Referendum result - Predictions

sammyjammy

BobQ wrote: »

I only hope that our Government has a Plan. But I think they have not.

They absolutely do not have a plan, they were way too cocky about Remain winning the vote for that.

HornetSaver

Generali wrote: »

It's the biggest ever fall in the value of sterling.

Thank goodness we didn't listen to the scaremongerers...

In the interests of balance, at 10pm a narrow Remain was considered the most likely outcome, by external economists, a majority of pollsters (though by no means all of them), and even by prominent Leave figureheads. By 4am Leave had won barring the most unlikely of turnarounds. I don't think there has ever been a bigger material change in the United Kingdom's circumstances in the space of six hours, so therefore the level of volatility is understandable. I'm sure someone will mention the ERM withdrawal or a certain declaration of war, but even in those cases, the writing was on the walls for a longer period of time. Many opinion polls indicated that Leave could win, but at no point was there a consensus that it was the most likely outcome.

BobQ

I see no need for balance!

What state we will be in two months from now I have no idea but I bet that many of those who supported this decision will turn on the Government when the economic realities come to pass

vivatifosi

I don't understand. David Cameron said before all this that he would, if the mandate is leave, go to Europe next week and trigger article 50, to leave the UK in two years.

Apparently the Brexit Tories are against this and see it as an over reaction.

I don't understand. I thought that was what they wanted.

Jon_B_2

vivatifosi wrote: »

I don't understand. David Cameron said before all this that he would, if the mandate is leave, go to Europe next week and trigger article 50, to leave the UK in two years.

Apparently the Brexit Tories are against this and see it as an over reaction.

I don't understand. I thought that was what they wanted.

It's strange. Before 10pm yesterday, my Facebook was filled with bullish out comments.

It's eerily quiet this morning, it either means: -

People with no interest in politics are still in bed

There is a realisation that this is bigger than they ever thought.

Generali

vivatifosi wrote: »

I don't understand. David Cameron said before all this that he would, if the mandate is leave, go to Europe next week and trigger article 50, to leave the UK in two years.

Apparently the Brexit Tories are against this and see it as an over reaction.

I don't understand. I thought that was what they wanted.

IIRC, the original position of the official Leave campaign was to get a Leave vote and then go back to Europe and use it to get a better deal.

BobQ

vivatifosi wrote: »

I don't understand. David Cameron said before all this that he would, if the mandate is leave, go to Europe next week and trigger article 50, to leave the UK in two years.

Apparently the Brexit Tories are against this and see it as an over reaction.

I don't understand. I thought that was what they wanted.

The argument is tactical. Serving notice locks us into the Article 50 process, the EU27 discuss with the UK etc. Not serving notice and calling a summit puts us on an equal footing (they say) to negotiate a deal.

We now have a mess where we expect the Government to do something. If they have no plan we are stuffed.

Andrea Leasom has suggested we should remain calm and take a considered view. She is meant to be a financial expert.

Kohoutek

BobQ wrote: »

So we are to get our sovereignty back, control of immigration, control of our borders

What the ***** are we going to do with it?

Hopefully not give it to the narcissists, racists and buffoons leading the Leave Campaign...

HornetSaver

BobQ wrote: »

I see no need for balance!

What state we will be in two months from now I have no idea but I bet that many of those who supported this decision will turn on the Government when the economic realities come to pass

I voted Remain, and based on your post I'm guessing you did too. Given that I backed the losing side, I'll be balanced on anything I'm not absolutely certain about until my pre-referendum positions are proven right.

That said, I'm certain that Gibraltar is in for a rough time, that there will be a recession very soon (though no idea how serious), and that we will see Scottish indyref2 in the pretty near future.

As for the longer term future of England... the majority of people disagreed with me, so as far as commentary goes I'm going to see how it plays out. I'll go back to being smug and outspoken if or when what I thought would happen actually happens.

vivatifosi

Gen, if you are still about...

At times like this, what happens it terms of trading volumes? Is there a spike as people try to get out, is there a fall as people wait for stability, or do volumes stay relatively stable?