How Much Longer Before The Crash

pinkshoes

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

Yawn.

By the way pinkshoes, you never answered the questions I put to you in this thread http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?p=5946075#post5946075

replied! sorry, didn't have time to reply before!

pinkshoes

abaxas wrote: »

It's weird how people like yourself expect other to lend you money. This is NOT a right and it can easily be taken away from you. Remember that there lots of people 'who CAN afford them' currently. But that does not mean they CAN in the future.

The value of a property is only worth the available mortgage of its buyer.

??? I don't expect anyone to lend me money. That would just be daft!! Not sure where that came from?!?! I work hard to earn a decent(ish) salary, and borrowed sensibly. If we didn't have enough to buy, then so be it; it wouldn't be the end of the world!

I'm not talking about people who borrow 5x their salary that can afford to buy. I'm referring to my oh so lucky city friends who get 6 figure bonuses who choose to invest alot of it in bricks and mortar. lucky them!

pickles110564

Generali wrote: »

For example, I don't see why BTL should bear the brunt of early losses/pain. According to the CML, the average BTL place is bought on a 40% mortgage so the rent should cover the mortgage unless rates really shoot up. Also, the typical BTLer is middle aged so more likely to be earning a good income and so be able to cover the higher mortgage cost for a while. Finally, if the flat/house is being rented out, there should be 2 people to cover the mortgage, not just one!

I know of several Btl's that have borrowed to the max , they are in for a hellava lot of pain

Conrad

Generali wrote: »

The flats are beautiful and very quiet, you can walk to work (I could anyway), crime is virtually nil, the gardens are beautiful, there's masses of stuff for kids (2 playgrounds, swimming pool in Golden Lane, cricket nets etc), the flats are well built and fantastically designed, and you're in the heart of one of the greatest cities that the world has ever seen.

Architecture's a bit dodgy I admit.

To me these 'benefits' are so disconnected from what it really means to be a Human Being.

Give me my little Hertfordshire village with rolling countryside, village pub, fresh air, magical atmosphere, perfect C Of E village School, getting beered - up with the neighbours and staggering accross the fields to guided by our homesteads distant twinkling lights, misty Autumn mornings, the buzz of insects, the boughs of lofty Ashes, the Church bells on a dark winter evening.....

We spent millions of years evolving as part of nature, Cities are a new and alien enviroment where one never looks up from the conrete, never to gaze into the Milky Way and rest and wonder at the tiny creatures busying themselves on the woodland carpet, all part of one great big organism.

The City for me is a meaningless, in fact pointless place TO LIVE, and yes I did work there for many a year.

Paige

I live in Wiltshire and here its a case of supply and demand. House prices here are still increasing and are being sold within days. There are still plenty of first time buyers, they are just different to what they were a few years back. I think we need to stop seeing the housing market as a whole and look at in in individual areas across the country. Prices will not drop while there is such a huge demand for housing.

jubblyjimbo

For what its worth (if anything) I understand Merryn Somerset Webb, a former stockbroker, now editor of Moneyweek, is very bearish on house prices and sold earlier in the year, currently renting, in anticipation of a market downturn.

Anecdotally, the only acquaintances i know who have bought in recent years have all done so on self cert mortgages. Most of my friends can't afford to buy despite being accountants, teachers, IT programmers.

Again, anecdotally, in the last few months interest rate rises have become an issue at work for people having to remortgage. I've never heard people discussing this before so there must be some pain there.

jubblyjimbo

A few further thoughts about my concerns for the property market are:

-historically high price vs income ratios;

-low rental yields;

-far cheaper to rent than buy - especially if you want a repayment mortgage;

-lots of interest only mortgages - people cant afford repayments on a repayment mortgage;

-lots of self cert mortgage - people pay the lender an 'admin fee' not to check their earnings;

-increasing interest rates - interbank lending rate well above base rate and credit crunch scenario of IR rising even if base rate falls;

-professional people being priced out of the market, with average age of FTB increasing;

-people talking about 'high' interest rates when historically they're still very low;

-look at whats happening in the US.

I'm absolutely convinced that this will end nastily. I really wish I had the strength of character to sell my house, bank the equity and rent. But I don't, and it seems nobody else does......maybe thats why prices keep rising?

Generali

pickles110564 wrote: »

I know of several Btl's that have borrowed to the max , they are in for a hellava lot of pain

My LL has at least 3 places. On mine he pays around £1100 in mortgage over what he gets in rent from me. He's in for a nasty shock.

Conrad wrote: »

To me these 'benefits' are so disconnected from what it really means to be a Human Being.

Give me my little Hertfordshire village with rolling countryside, village pub, fresh air, magical atmosphere, perfect C Of E village School, getting beered - up with the neighbours and staggering accross the fields to guided by our homesteads distant twinkling lights, misty Autumn mornings, the buzz of insects, the boughs of lofty Ashes, the Church bells on a dark winter evening.....

We spent millions of years evolving as part of nature, Cities are a new and alien enviroment where one never looks up from the conrete, never to gaze into the Milky Way and rest and wonder at the tiny creatures busying themselves on the woodland carpet, all part of one great big organism.

The City for me is a meaningless, in fact pointless place TO LIVE, and yes I did work there for many a year.

I agree in many respects. For me, the suburbs is the worst place to live, most of the disadvantages of the country and the city. I'd rather live in a lovely rural area but for now need to work in The City for financial reasons.

In the centre of London I'd great art, music, restaurants etc. The energy is great, if a little tiring sometimes. Many of the downs weren't a problem to me - most places were a walk away or a cycle at worst, there is virtually no crime (outside the offices) in the Square Mile. I could get out to the countryside quite easily to visit friends or family (parents were in rural Surrey, good mate is a farmer in the West Country).

FWIW, I'm off to Australia in a little under 2 years to go and do something more interesting and worthwhile for a living I hope.

jyonda

Generali wrote: »

My LL has at least 3 places. On mine he pays around £1100 in mortgage over what he gets in rent from me. He's in for a nasty shock.

He won't be the only one. If he loses the house or sells up, what happens to you?

Why do some people think that 'when the crash happens' they'll buy a handful of repossessions for their pension when the money they think they have is mostly in......................................................................... property!

It's not strength of character you need to sell up and rent jubblyjimbo, it's greed.

nollag2006

Whenever I read these house price crash muppets praying for a fall back in values, I often turn to the archive section of their own website, to see just how feeble and pathetic their predictions of a crash are.

For those of you who want a laugh at these muppets and their ridiculous predictions of a crash, here it is:
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/predictions-archive.php