Listing prices vs. sold prices

Andypandyboy

It wasn't a cheap shot, it was a relevant comment.

Everyone wants to sell for a good price but buy for a better one! You seem to be bemoaning the fact that you did the former but can't do the latter. The tactic of holding out with a cheeky offer works well until your emotions are engaged and then you fall for a house and suddenly, it becomes "worth" more than you "really" wanted to pay.

Bossworld

Andypandyboy wrote: »

It wasn't a cheap shot, it was a relevant comment.

Everyone wants to sell for a good price but buy for a better one! You seem to be bemoaning the fact that you did the former but can't do the latter. The tactic of holding out with a cheeky offer works well until your emotions are engaged and then you fall for a house and suddenly, it becomes "worth" more than you "really" wanted to pay.

I think at every point I've tried to state that I'm not intending to come me across as moaning, I'm still just trying to understand the large difference between asking and sold prices and how much middle ground there is or isn't, so that I'm not wasting my time or theirs.

I'm under no illusions that sellers want anything other than the best they can possibly get. As before I appreciate any genuine advice. If the facts are that its worth £225 despite others going for £185 less than 12 months ago then that's the facts and that's what we've got to pay.

booksurr

Bossworld wrote: »

I'm under no illusions that sellers want anything other than the best they can possibly get. As before I appreciate any genuine advice. If the facts are that its worth £225 despite others going for £185 less than 12 months ago then that's the facts and that's what we've got to pay.

but your question is impossible to answer as what it is worth is only confirmed when a final price is agreed

until then each side is playing games based upon comparative properties (buyer) and what they want (seller)

clearly you consider that prices have not risen that far yet in your area. The vendor (their agent) thinks they have. There is no magical formula by which you can set your offer based on x% below (or above!) the asking price since the vendor either has to sell for what he can get now because time is limited, or can hold on to see if future viewers accept prices have "risen" and the price the vendor wants is then "comparable". (Assuming of course the vendor has not raised the price in line with "the market")

yes it is almost inevitable that you may upset some vendors with a "rude" offer but only you know what you can afford to pay if you really want the property and are therefore prepared (to a limited extent) to forget what it is costing you this year on the basis that it is your "dream" house and when you sell in x years time even a 10% difference on asking price now will be insignificant in the future.

I well remember on my first house (75,950 asking) my first offer of 73 being rejected. I wanted the house as I thought it the best available at the time, so my second offer was 75,000 take it or leave it. they took it. The house is now "worth" 300k so the £2k "extra" I paid looks rather silly now

Andypandyboy

I agree, we bought our current house after being gazumped on another (cheaper one) at the last mimute so we didn't want to pay the full asking price, as technically it was above our budget.

We negotiated down to £37,500 from £42,000 even though we had only been paying £35,000 for the original house. Ours is in a better area and is now worth c£350k and the other would now be worth around £275k max, so we got our money's worth from the extra £2.5k.

Take account of everything; location, amenities, minus points, surrounding properties, schools, etc, when deciding on a price.

Cakeguts

Has anything changed about the local area that is making it more attractive? It could be a new supermarket, a road upgrade, a new station? I know of an area in the North West that is rising compared to the surrounding area because it has become more desirable.

ElsieMonkey

Bossworld wrote: »

If the facts are that its worth £225 despite others going for £185 less than 12 months ago then that's the facts and that's what we've got to pay.

Sold prices from 12 months ago (or near to it) are quite old figures. If something sold 12 months ago, the offer would have been made (we can guess) at least 3 months prior to that, meaning that price was offered and accepted at least 15 months ago. I think this data is too dated to judge the current market on. Even 6 months ago is a bit too long ago IMO.

That's not to say this data isn't helpful though. Maybe look at and compare what happened between the 12month and 6 month and 3 months ago sold prices...were sold prices higher 3 months ago compared to 6 months ago, and then compared to 12 months ago etc? This will give an indication of what the trend is (or has been) in the market, and the way it will possibly keep going. Then consider if there's more buyers than property or vice versa at the moment (is it a buyers or sellers market, or somewhere in-between)?

I do think that pricing a property is more art than science, and no matter how much data you analyse it ultimately comes down to gut instinct when judging how much you think a property is worth. All you can do is make your best judgement, based on all of the above plus knowing the max figure you can afford and would/would not be gutted to miss-out on it for. Unfortunately you can't take account for sellers making what seems absurd decisions (we recently offered on a house, 165k, was up for 180l but required extensive work and we done our homework on sold prices etc. Same day we offered vendor rejected our offer but reduced property to 170k - but told EA hey want 175k. Makes no sense so glad to actually not be going into a transaction with such an individual)!

yertiz_2

ElsieMonkey wrote: »

Sold prices from 12 months ago (or near to it) are quite old figures. If something sold 12 months ago, the offer would have been made (we can guess) at least 3 months prior to that, meaning that price was offered and accepted at least 15 months ago. I think this data is too dated to judge the current market on. Even 6 months ago is a bit too long ago IMO.

That's not to say this data isn't helpful though. Maybe look at and compare what happened between the 12month and 6 month and 3 months ago sold prices...were sold prices higher 3 months ago compared to 6 months ago, and then compared to 12 months ago etc? This will give an indication of what the trend is (or has been) in the market, and the way it will possibly keep going. Then consider if there's more buyers than property or vice versa at the moment (is it a buyers or sellers market, or somewhere in-between)?

I do think that pricing a property is more art than science, and no matter how much data you analyse it ultimately comes down to gut instinct when judging how much you think a property is worth. All you can do is make your best judgement, based on all of the above plus knowing the max figure you can afford and would/would not be gutted to miss-out on it for. Unfortunately you can't take account for sellers making what seems absurd decisions (we recently offered on a house, 165k, was up for 180l but required extensive work and we done our homework on sold prices etc. Same day we offered vendor rejected our offer but reduced property to 170k - but told EA hey want 175k. Makes no sense so glad to actually not be going into a transaction with such an individual)!

If you go on Zoopla website and look at any house for sale in your area , click on 'area stats' and it will come up with 'market activity' and shows last 12, 6, and 3 months activity, up or down.
This might also be useful:
http://www.westerndailypress.co.uk/House-sellers-start-slash-bigger-chunks-original/story-29248168-detail/story.html

Bossworld

Thanks again all.

Nothing else particularly happening in the area, a few miles down the road there are new build housing developments popping up everywhere but there are no amenities near those other than the A19.

Had a quick look on the Zoopla 3 / 6 / 12 month checker that yertiz linked to. It looks to just be for a postcode centre, but if it's of any use for analysing trends, given the wealth of advice on the thread:

3 months:
Average price paid
£176,347

Sales
36

Current average value
£195,134

Value change
-£2,025
▼ -1.03%

6 months:

Average price paid
£184,509

Sales
145

Current average value
£195,134
(Zoopla Zed-Index)

Value change
-£5,792
▼ -2.88%

12 months

Average price paid
£199,499

Sales
514

Current average value
£195,134
(Zoopla Zed-Index)

Value change
-£1,072
▼ -0.55%

Again for the postcode centre in general, for a semi detatched:

Property type Avg. current value Avg. £ per sq ft. Avg. # beds Avg. £ paid (last 12m)

Semi-detached £186,070 £188 3.1 £184,312

Quizzical Squirrel - to be honest I wasn't banking on getting anything further off from a survey, other than an old kitchen it's well maintained on a first glance.

I've got a viewing for somewhere else booked in so we'll keep an eye on this first one but don't think it's for us. The agent called back on Monday asking if we wanted to go back with another offer but just simply said we need to see what's realistic mortgage-wise before discussing anything further.