Will smaller home ownership lead to more left-wing governments?

MPD

A policy of rent caps, although generally agreed to be financially disastrous, could be quite a vote winner. It would seem to benefit many private renters and based on the assumption that landlords are unlikely to vote for the party that suggests it would not lose votes from that demographic.

michaels

I wonder if this is why the left abhore right to buy so much, at a stroke it converts labour voters into Tories....

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

michaels wrote: »

I wonder if this is why the left abhore right to buy so much, at a stroke it converts labour voters into Tories....

Yep that's a big part of it.

Although the working class base of Labour is in terminal decline anyway.

As I've posted before go back 40 years and a typical van driver would have been working for a company, trying to stay with the same employer for many years, be in a union, etc.

Today that same man with a van is most likely to be self employed, hustling for work from many different companies, paying his own taxes, and views himself as an aspirational small business owner not an employee.

He cares more about a thriving economy and low taxes than he does about workplace rights and socialist policies.

That's a big swing to natural Conservative territory before home owning status is ever taken into account.

vivatifosi

Shelter has some stats on likelihood of voting, by tenure. Registration asked whether people were likely to vote in an immediately called General Election..

Owners 80%
Mortgage holders 72%
Social renters 65%
Private renters 60%

http://blog.shelter.org.uk/2013/05/politics-and-tenure-the-state-of-play/

Data a few years old now.

vivatifosi

Also, the Electoral Commission, unsurprisingly perhaps, found big differences in voter registration when viewed by length of tenure:

Length of residence 16+ years 93.9%
Length of residence less than one year 40.1%

The least likely to register to vote by security of tenure is private rented: 63.3%
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-reviews-and-research/levels-of-electoral-registration-have-stabilised-since-2011,-new-research-shows

There's also data on age, ethnicity etc in this report.

kinger101

Mistermeaner wrote: »

Does that mean that if the Tories evict all social housing Tennant's from London and force them into private rental that labours share of the vote will drop further

No. People don't vote Labour because they are in social housing. The criteria for people getting into social housing (rather than private rented) in the first place just favours people who are more likely to vote Labour.

BobQ

michaels wrote: »

I wonder if this is why the left abhore right to buy so much, at a stroke it converts labour voters into Tories....

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yep that's a big part of it.

Although the working class base of Labour is in terminal decline anyway.

As I've posted before go back 40 years and a typical van driver would have been working for a company, trying to stay with the same employer for many years, be in a union, etc.

Today that same man with a van is most likely to be self employed, hustling for work from many different companies, paying his own taxes, and views himself as an aspirational small business owner not an employee.

He cares more about a thriving economy and low taxes than he does about workplace rights and socialist policies.

That's a big swing to natural Conservative territory before home owning status is ever taken into account.

I agree with this interpretation.

This stereotypical man will also enjoy a varying range of success, some will indeed be successful and can be regarded as running a small business and may have reason to vote Tory. Others will be no better off than those with a couple of part time jobs and have the costs of running their van but still think of themselves as a small business man and so a natural Tory voter.

Either way this stereoyype will probably be driving the streets when he is unwell because he cannot afford not to work, he probably works bank holidays and has days when he has no work or has to work for very little gain. He is also more inclined to evade taxes (some cash in hand jobs etc) which will further reinforce his sense of being a natural Tory

As my grandfather used to say "there is nothing worse than a working class snob".

cells

Generali wrote: »

It would appear that way.

It's quite marked. Social renters were twice as likely as home owners to vote UKIP, SNP or Labour as those in social housing. Home owners were 2.5x more likely to vote Tory.

If you assume that English home owners are very unlikely to vote SNP as they don't stand in England, it is likely that half of English homeowners voted Tory.

I don't know whether more voters renting will lead to more Labour votes as we haven't established whether Labour voting causes renting or renting causes Labour voting.

lots of variables makes it difficult to conclude how much each variable is contributing

for instance London is more foreign or children of foreigners and London also has more social housing than rEngland. So its hard to look in isolation and say social housing is voting more for labour rather than foreigners/children-of-foreigners are voting more for labour. I suspect this might even be true on a national level. eg the big towns and cities had more social homes built (just a guess not checked) and the same big towns and cities are home to a larger % of foreigners.

So looking at social in itself might be misleading. Admittedly the margin is so huge its undeniable that social tenants vote more red than blue but the magnitude is probably flattered by the fact there are more foreigners in cities with disproportionately high social.

cells

MPD wrote: »

A policy of rent caps, although generally agreed to be financially disastrous, could be quite a vote winner. It would seem to benefit many private renters and based on the assumption that landlords are unlikely to vote for the party that suggests it would not lose votes from that demographic.

what proportion of tenants, especially in London, have the right to vote in a general election?

I have not checked and dont keep an electronic record (I have paper records) of nationalities but I think 50% maybe more of my tenants are EU citizens who can not vote in General Elections

cells

michaels wrote: »

I wonder if this is why the left abhore right to buy so much, at a stroke it converts labour voters into Tories....

more data is needed. How do people in ex-council flats vote? I suspect not exactly the same as people in privately constructed and bought homes.

I think its likely foreigners are disproportionately represented in social homes. 'they get all the bloody council housing' has some truth to it in that 'they' tend to live in the areas where social housing is a much larger % of the stock eg like inner London

So are social tenants voting red because they are social tenants or are they voting red because they are immigrants in social homes?