Will smaller home ownership lead to more left-wing governments?

richdeniro

I was just thinking that a lot of people vote Conservative solely out of their own personal circumstances (shy Tories?) which usually is to do with their perception that they manage the economy better and so their house price increases and so they feel richer.

Maybe not this generation but say a decade or so from now there won't be as many people are who home owners and we will have a much larger proportion of renters in the country who won't have the motivation of owning an asset that makes them feel more wealthy.

Will this lead to a change in the political landscape?

BobQ

The left in the UK has been through difficult times and the immediate future seems much the same. I am not convinced that there will be a move to the left in the next ten years.

I think Thatcher's lasting achievement has been to foster a self-centred way of thinking that has been adopted by subsequent generations. This has positive aspects by encouraging self reliance and entrepreneurial thinking but its negative aspects manifest itself as "me-first" thinking and less sympathy for other citizens. I think this will continue for another few decades and we will see a greater divide in our nation. As Duncan said the high achievers (in which he includes people who inherit fortunes) and the low achievers (the mugs who cannot enter the Kingdom of Duncan I assume).

One day there may be a reaction to the left but it could equally be a move to right with the "high achievers" consolidating their position. I am not convinced that it is not happening already!

vivatifosi

Politics over the past twenty years, maybe longer, has been won by whoever best occupies the centre ground. I don't think that there will be a lurch to the left, but if the tories move further right, there could well be a bit of a void in the middle.

Do I think that Labour could feasibly win the next election? Yes
Do I think that Labour could win with its current leader? No. It would take an almighty implosion from the tories first.

BobQ

vivatifosi wrote: »

Do I think that Labour could win with its current leader? No. It would take an almighty implosion from the tories first.

The Tories are working on this.........

cells

What percentage of renters vote? I would have assumed it was the least likely group to vote

It's not a given that renting will continually increase. If the government/regulators turn back the clock and allow self cert then ownership will rise again.

Dan83

I'm a home owner on the first rung of the property ladder, I voted Tory. I hope we don't have another property boom, I'm more then happy to sell for what I paid aslong as everything else stays the same. I voted Tory because of the cuts to benefits they promised to make, I think benefits are still to high for some and need cutting further.

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

The Tories are working on this.........

But Labour themselves continue to dig holes to fall into. As there's no cohesive strategy other than resorting to Punch and Judy politics.

Rich2808

Look at London - lowest hone ownership biggest Labour stronghold.

Generali

This is how people voted by housing status in the 2015 General Election from a post-election You Gov survey of 100,000 people:



That supports the OP's hypothesis.

Interestingly, Ds and Es were about a third more likely to vote Labour than the As and Bs but twice as likely to support UKIP. That makes me think that if a large number of disaffected non-voters turn out then UKIP rather than Mr Corbyn is likely to be the biggest beneficiary although it's notable that the majority even of private renters were Tory voters. It was only those in social housing that voted Labour.

Mistermeaner

Does that mean that if the Tories evict all social housing Tennant's from London and force them into private rental that labours share of the vote will drop further

Generali

Mistermeaner wrote: »

Does that mean that if the Tories evict all social housing Tennant's from London and force them into private rental that labours share of the vote will drop further

It would appear that way.

It's quite marked. Social renters were twice as likely as home owners to vote UKIP, SNP or Labour as those in social housing. Home owners were 2.5x more likely to vote Tory.

If you assume that English home owners are very unlikely to vote SNP as they don't stand in England, it is likely that half of English homeowners voted Tory.

I don't know whether more voters renting will lead to more Labour votes as we haven't established whether Labour voting causes renting or renting causes Labour voting.