How will leaving the EU affect the UK housing market?

AdrianC

Miss_Samantha wrote: »

There's not even any need for new agreements for this to be the case, actually.

Depends. If we do vote out, EVERYTHING is going to need to be renegotiated. If we stay in the EEA, then the Treaty of Rome would still apply, so the four basic freedoms of movement would still apply.

If we leave the EEA, too, then the four freedoms wouldn't apply - but we would almost certainly still want three of them (goods, capital, services) to apply. And we'd probably expect British nationals to continue to be free to move between European countries - and that's going to be a hard one to negotiate while not wanting the reverse to be true...

lincroft1710

G_M wrote: »

A vote to leave =

* immediate expulsion of thousands of illegal & (semi) legal immigrants
* exodus of EU-based companies and hence of their EU citizens working in UK
* huge drop in demand for housing
* huge drop in property prices, forcing millions into negative equity
* massive job losses, leading to property repossessions further flooding the market at low prices
* millions of young people suddenly finding property prices in reach, so leaving th rental market
* temporary flood of BTL properties onto the market as LLs panic
* suspension of all house building due to property price crash, leading to yet more job losses and repos
* bankrupcy of most house builders, leading to stock market crash
* winding up of pension funds due to stock market crash. Inability of governement to meet pension compensation claims. Government resigns.
* Nationaisation of all property by new incoming Labour government.
* redistribution of all property, based on a) need b) individual's classification (worker Vs Capitalist Roadster) and c) connections with new government

I think you forgot a plague of locusts descending upon us

Miss_Samantha

AdrianC wrote: »

Depends. If we do vote out, EVERYTHING is going to need to be renegotiated. If we stay in the EEA, then the Treaty of Rome would still apply, so the four basic freedoms of movement would still apply.

The vote is only about leaving the EU, so strictly speaking not everything would need to be renegotiated.
As you wrote, we could just leave the EU but remain in everything else, including the EEA, and there would no need for new agreements (at least on free movement and free trade with the EU).

To me the "vote to leave" campaign is not serious because they are just emotionally obsessed with the EU. They keep repeating that we must leave, leave, leave, but cannot or do not want to articulate what alternative they are proposing.

mildredalien

I can't see how leaving the EU would magically increase house building or have an immediate impact on the number of people currently in the UK, so it may not have much effect on house prices, at least not for a while. It might put random rich people off buying houses in the UK for 'investments' so that could help increase housing stock and lower prices I suppose?

* redistribution of all property, based on a) need b) individual's classification (worker Vs Capitalist Roadster) and c) connections with new government

Sounds perfect, I'm definitely in need of a five bed detached with swimming pool and hot tub. My cats need space. Although Capitalist Roadster sounds a bit like a car??

AdrianC

Miss_Samantha wrote: »

The vote is only about leaving the EU, so strictly speaking not everything would need to be renegotiated.
As you wrote, we could just leave the EU but remain in everything else, including the EEA, and there would no need for new agreements.

And then, of course, there are external influences.

If the UK votes to leave, there will almost certainly be another Scottish independence referendum, which the leave campaign will almost certainly win.
The SNP have stated that, if Scotland does secede, they want to join the EU.
If they join the EU, they will probably have to join Schengen.

That then gives the UK a choice - join Schengen, or have passport control at the border and - since Ireland would almost certainly join, too - at the border between Eire and NI. Joining Schengen would not only mean free movement for all other Schengen and EU nationals, but removal of the UK's current control over non-EU migration. Norway and Switzerland are both Schengen members.

Which would be the smaller political price to pay...?

To me the "vote to leave" campaign is not serious because they are just emotionally obsessed with the EU. They keep repeating that we must leave, leave, leave, but cannot or do not want to articulate what alternative they are proposing.

You may very well think that, I couldn't possibly comment.

Miss_Samantha

AdrianC wrote: »

You may very well think that, I couldn't possibly comment.

Could a comment be more wishy washy than that?

AdrianC

Miss_Samantha wrote: »

Could a comment be more wishy washy than that?

dc197

A vote to leave will initially have very little practical effect. It will take years to negotiate and then execute the leave, because all sorts of arrangements will need to be implemented to replace the current arrangements.

I think that when the departure is executed there will be a halt in the migrants into the UK and a departure of many EU citizens who will lose the right to stay, if amnesty is not granted for those already here.

I think the housing market will slow significantly. But I don't think builders will go bust. Even without the foreigners, the population of Britain is at a high point and therefore its growth will remain high as all the Britons continue to breed. There will still be a demand for new homes.

Miss_Samantha

dc197 wrote: »

There will still be a demand for new homes.

Well yes, if we kick out the hundreds of thousands of EU citizens who live here, they'll kick out the hundreds of thousands of UK citizens who live there...

leveller2911

Miss_Samantha wrote: »

Well yes, if we kick out the hundreds of thousands of EU citizens who live here, they'll kick out the hundreds of thousands of UK citizens who live there...

You do realise we won't be kicking out "hundreds of Thousands of EU migrants" don't you?. Actually there something like 800,000 Polish people here already.

The truth is they will stay and work in the same way they do now. They just won't be eligible for benefits. The UK will also have the power to decide in the future how many new EU migrants we allow to enter..........

If we vote to stay in the EU we are not voting to stay in an EU as it is today.The EU is going down the Federalist route so if you're happy to be part of that then vote to remain.

The remain camps future plan for the EU is also lacking in any details, for instance:

When will the EU's Eastward Empire building stop?. They never say what the limit is to the number of countries allowed to join is. There are 5 more countries shortly joining and then we have Ukraine and turkey joining so when is enough enough?.

When will the EU reform so that the people we actually get to vote in (MEP's) are the ones who actually make the laws rather than the unelected Council of Europe?.

Your local MEP doesn't make/propose EU laws they just have the power to amend the proposed laws in the same way our House of lords do. So when do we get true reform of the EU when/if we remain?.