Time to sell all non-cash Investments ?

sjw11

My IFA has a real bad feeling about the European In/Out vote, and thinks I should put ALL my investments into cash until the hullabaloo is over.
I have built up various Shares, Investment Trusts, and Insurance based investments over the years to about 100k
I just cant help feeling that if I go into cash, I will be reluctant to go back into Investment trusts on fear that things will go pear shaped yet again.
His investment advice has not been particularly great over the last couple of years, except for Infrastructure (which he does actually recommend to keep) and Property
How are other peoples fears on Brexit ?

kidmugsy

It's not Brexit I fear, but calamity in Italy and Portugal, in Japan, China, the USA ......

Compared to some of these, Brexit is a mere detail. In fact if the eurozone really gets into the merde, Brexit might be a huge boon.

bowlhead99

I think we won't vote for a brexit. If we do vote out, for which there is no real precedent, the uncertainty will be bad for the UK stock market. It will probably be bad for the pound too, which means all your overseas holdings (global equities and bonds within your ITs and insurance wrappers etc) will increase in value in sterling terms.

Personally I don't think we will brexit which means the uncertainty already priced into the markets (and which may have increased over the next couple of months depending on polls and media and government /bank / industry commentary) will reverse.

But the above is a generalization, a gross simplification

I won't be waiting all cash for markets to move without me. Any move will have some immediacy to it as well as a longer slower correction one way or another over the following months as implications sink in.

BananaRepublic

As said, it is highly likely that uncertainty has already been priced into shares. Hence if we stay, which I think will be the case, we will probably see a big rise due to the removal of uncertainty. If we leave, I suspect we will see a slow rise, as the markets discover that we don't all develop boils and pustules, and swear at anyone or anything vaguely foreign.

In general it is hard to predict the markets. Too much is down to sentiment, and random events, neither of which are easy to predict. I've always been in the ride out the markets camp, come sun and rain, and it has worked out okay.

jimjames

I find it incredible that an IFA is suggesting you try timing the market. I'd be really interested to hear dinstonh's view of that.

TheTracker

I had the same thought as jimjames. I'm amazed an IFA would Provide such left field advice.

Linton

I am amazed that your IFA should suggest a panic sell. It's always a bad idea. If you are sensibly diversified UK investments should only be a relatively small part of your total portfolio. The rest of the world will carry on whatever the vote. With share based investments you are investing for the long term. In 10 years time the ripples or waves from the Brexit vote will have settled down and there will be something else to worry about.

If there really is a global economic collapse because of the Brexit vote I am not sure cash would be of much use either.

Suggest you look round for another IFA.

redux

Did this IFA also advise selling up at the end of last year and then buying back in on certain days in January and February?

If so, I'd be inclined to wonder if this is genius or fluky clairvoyancy, but I suspect the answer is no.

Rich2808

Yes - everything is the fault of Brexit even the rain!!

There are much bigger factors at play in the world economy - China as an example.

And in the end 180 plus countries aren't in the EU - they seem to cope.

Don't be so easily scared by scare stories!

weenie15

I'm hoping things go all pear-shaped and the markets tank so I can hopefully pick up some bargains.

AnotherJoe

sjw11 wrote: »

My IFA has a real bad feeling about the European In/Out vote, and thinks I should put ALL my investments into cash until the hullabaloo is over.
I have built up various Shares, Investment Trusts, and Insurance based investments over the years to about 100k
I just cant help feeling that if I go into cash, I will be reluctant to go back into Investment trusts on fear that things will go pear shaped yet again.
His investment advice has not been particularly great over the last couple of years, except for Infrastructure (which he does actually recommend to keep) and Property
How are other peoples fears on Brexit ?

How many of these are UK based? If a substantial amount, then you are overweight, you should be in other sectors as well. If not many, then it doesn't matter. Maybe if you are particularly nervous sell any FT trackers and similar trusts that mirror the UK stock market.

I doubt that more than 10% of my investments are really "UK" based except housebuilders of which i have quite a few but its all long term stuff, I'll ride out any dips (and rises).

And its not a one-way bet, say you get out & its a "stay" vote, chances are the FT rises 10% the next day. You'll have missed out on that.

The thing is, your IFA really has no more insight than me, you or a monkey throwing darts at the FT share price pages. If he did, he wouldn't be your IFA would he, he'd be living in his own tropical island paradise. So unless when you visit him you need to catch a plane, I'd say check on your sector weightings, but otherwise ignore.