Time to sell all non-cash Investments ?

zolablue25

I woudln't be surprised whichever way the vote goes and I also won't be surprised whichever waythe market sees the result - its mostly sentiment after all.

Personally, I hope we stay in, but I won't shoot myself should the vote go the other way.

Glen_Clark

economic wrote: »

i would be holding ....defensive stocks (blue chip in US) and property in locations with liited supply.

Lots of people must have the same idea - thats why those assets are so expensive

TheTracker

Hmm, I consider the risk of a well balanced global bond/equity portfolio far less than the risk of a portfolio of 12%pa p2p loans, with or without Brexit, and I say that as someone with a considerable amount of money in each.

jimjames

bigadaj wrote: »

I wouldn't be at all surprised by an out vote and may put a few quid on it. The weight of media is on out, people are suffering from immigration related issues such as house prices, social housing, commuting, traffic, etc

Same here, certainly locally an awful lot of people are in the out camp. I do think there are lot more jobs and industries dependent than you've mentioned though. All car builders for example are reliant on access to the single market, without that they're likely to build new plants elsewhere in future. Personally I want to remain, I can only think of positives for being in EU, there certainly aren't any negatives that have an impact on a daily basis. Obviously it's not a perfect club but then overall I think the benefits outweigh the reasons to leave.

BananaRepublic

bigadaj wrote: »

Which way round do you think that is?

I have no idea. It might be in house, or bought in.

BananaRepublic

bigadaj wrote: »

Yes I think the polls are close than that.

I think an out vote might prevail, I'm fairly ambivalent and unless you work for or are heavily invested in rolls Royce, Airbus and any other companies that have an interest in staying in then it's not clear cut.

I wouldn't be at all surprised by an out vote and may put a few quid on it. The weight of media is on out, people are suffering from immigration related issues such as house prices, social housing, commuting, traffic, etc

Immigration has held wage inflation down and more general ex house inflation too, but more people probably feel more strongly about being out than staying in.

I'm veering towards out currently, I certainly don't blame immigrants for any issues and if there is a benefit problem then the root cause of this is uk legislation and legal systems rather than foreigners themselves. What might be a problem is trying to get many British people off benefits to do the low paid work that is currently done by immigrants, there doesn't seem a lot of incentive for many to do hard manual work for what would be a very marginal increase over income that comes from doing little or nothing and being reliant on benefits, housing benefit being the primary problem.

You get some very qualified immigrants working in Currys, and on assembly lines doing mundane work. And of course a large number of immigrants are from outside the EU, and a large number are doctors, nurses etc.

I am prepared to believe that the EU benefits the economy in terms of big business, but I am not pursuaded that it is democratic. Maybe it is like America, where big business has a large say in politics.

maxie014

Vote out i say and almost everyone i speak to says the same!
Mind you ill miss the roma gypsies playing the accordion and begging on the streets,we were short of a few accordion players squawking away in town.

If we vote to stay in we are genuinely up the creek i reckon,the eu will see it as a green light to do what they want.

jamesd

Linton wrote: »

If this and the first quote are serious worries for you it is a sign that you were invested way beyond your risk tolerance and you should never have been in this position in the first place.

Mostly it shows that the person understands sequence of return risk, though I agree that it also shows that the investment risk profile was probably already wrong.

Linton wrote: »

This seems a remarkably unlikely scenario in global terms. Perhaps if you are 100% UK invested, but even then much of the value of the FTSE All Share is founded on world markets. With a well balanced portfolio a 40% overall drop is always possible, but not because of Brexit.

When will you know that the time is right to re-invest?

Markets just need a trigger for drops. Brexit is as good a trigger as any other given that it may destablise the EU and lead to more exits. That's definitely a pessimistic scenario but protecting against pessimistic possibilities is what changing investments for this situation is for. I expect that the longer term effects would be for the UK and EU, though, rather than global. Don't know where the money is currently invested.

The time to reinvest is up to the individual and whatever happens. If it's brexit and a 40% drop that'd probably be quite a good time to reinvest but maybe not so good for the UK and to a lesser extent the EU. If it's not brexit the scenario being protected against didn't happen and a relief rally is likely so ASAP woud be the time to reinvest.

Personally I'm not doing much in the way of brexit-specific things since what I've been doing anyway protects me. But if it is brexit and there are nice big sales on shares I might well reinvest more in them.

zolablue25

jamesd wrote: »

Brexit is as good a trigger as any other given that it may destablise the EU and lead to more exits.

This is my main worry regarding a Brexit, but perhaps not in the way you may have been intending it. The Danes and NL are both growing more anti-EU (and the Danes weren't huge on it in the first place). My worry is that the EU may look at the Brexit and try to make it a deterrent to others by playing hardball on trade agreements. Many Brexit campaigners appear to think that it will be easy to make some nice cosy trade deals with the EU but I'm not convinced at all about that. If it all turned out too rosy, too quickly they know others will be looking to go the same way and the whole EU experiment will go down in flames and too many powerful people have too much of a vested interest to let that happen without a fight.

redux

zolablue25 wrote: »

Many Brexit campaigners appear to think that it will be easy to make some nice cosy trade deals with the EU but I'm not convinced at all about that.

It seems odd to me that the would be exiters are so split between those who could get a new trade deal as easy as anything and those who evidently don't believe in free trade at all and want all kinds of unilateral tariff and other barriers.