The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

kabayiri wrote: »

Isn't it about this time that Shakey comes and tells us off for cr4pping on her thread?

Throw in a few random tweets from a journo whose sister used to date the cousin of Nicola Sturgeon's hairdresser....that should sort things :rotfl:

Sorry, you're right, apologies Shakey. Back on topic

3...

2...

1...

mollycat

kabayiri wrote: »

Isn't it about this time that Shakey comes and tells us off for cr4pping on her thread?

Throw in a few random tweets from a journo whose sister used to date the cousin of Nicola Sturgeon's hairdresser....that should sort things :rotfl:

Maybe says,

1. Your posts are repetetive and yawn inducing.

2. C'mon, I was only joking, (after being called out for outrageous claims).

or

3. I hate the tories/labour is in meltdown.

ps. On a serious note; sorry for having the temerity to post on your thread Your Highness

kabayiri

mollycat wrote: »

Maybe says,

1. Your posts are repetetive and yawn inducing.

2. C'mon, I was only joking, (after being called out for outrageous claims).

or

3. I hate the tories/labour is in meltdown.

ps. On a serious note; sorry for having the temerity to post on your thread Your Highness

Don't worry.

We operate a 3 strikes policy here...

...which, by strange coincidence, is the number of strikes the PS will have every week in a newly independent Scotland :rotfl:

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

Don't worry.

We operate a 3 strikes policy here...

...which, by strange coincidence, is the number of strikes the PS will have every week in a newly independent Scotland :rotfl:

Sorry for not being around to be made a fool of and provide a bit of laughter and light for you all.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The raw data

(http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ditypa75v5/TimesScotlandResults_161129_W.pdf)

appears to be suggesting that there is a swing, a small but consistent one across all questions, away from further referenda, remaining in the EU, Scottish independence, engaging with the 'National Conversation' and the SNP in general.

Caveats should be that, it's one poll, it's a poll(!), and we're all well aware of what they've been like in recent history.

If it is correct it's not good news for the SNP, not terrible, but does indicate the mood shifting away from independence being the answer to all Scottish ills resonating with the people of Scotland. Will this signal a change of tack from Nicola and the SNP?

No. If the SNP ever went by polling in dictating how to react to circustances they'd never have gone for the first indy ref. Not in a million years.. but they did anyway.

Certainly given recent polling performances, ( hung parliament, remain win, Clinton win ). Why would folks like you and others here be putting so much 100% faith in them ? Especially given it's still hovering at the same place as it was in the last indy ref before a second campaign even starts. There were some really pertinent questions missing in that poll, notably what would happen in the event of a hard brexit <--- which in essence is actually the absolute crux of the matter given that the same poll shows 65 to 35 %/ higher support for the EU than in June.

Hard Brexit with no Scottish deal - Indy ref 2 regardless of what the polls say. End of story as far as Sturgeon, the SNP and the Greens are concerned.. oh and half of Scottish Labour.

Though is looking like Davies and Johnson are starting to falter a bit on this hard brexit, FOM thing aren't they ?

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

Bundling pro-Scottish independence with a very pro-EU stance does seem to be a risky strategy to me.

Not when it's Anti-Tory also. Vast swathes of the most populated areas of Scotland are extremely open to this argument and have been expressly so for the last 40 or 50 years. Which is why Labour did so well until 2007 Holyrood/2015 Westminster in Scotland. Was all about keeping the Tories out.

This facet of the debate was completely missing from the last indy ref since it was assumed that Labour would be in No 10 by May 2015. The Yes campaign couldn't use future Tory governments to any real or great effect. Labour were ahead in Westminster voting intention polls in Sept 2014. One can assume next time round this Anti-Tory strategy will be utilised, especially given the right wing nature of the current Govt, to build pro-independence support to absolute maximum effect possible. The entirety of the Yes campaign will be using it 24/7. Labour, and especially Scottish Labour and Labour leaning media ( Daily Record etc ) will dare not argue with it either.

Oh and then there's the EU thing. A second indy ref won't just be on the EU, the Tories will get a good old airing too in debate terms of being better off with or without.

Now, am I making this up ? Or does this sound plausible to you ?

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The raw data

(http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ditypa75v5/TimesScotlandResults_161129_W.pdf)

engaging with the 'National Conversation' and the SNP in general.

I'm not surprised people didn't engage much with the National Conversation... given that it was the National Survey we were all filling in online, through the letterboxes, on doorsteps and at street stalls. Bit of an 'oops' moment there for YouGov it seems. No wonder the figs were so off. They weren't far off their 2 million target by all accounts.

http://www.snp.org/survey

Watch the National Survey explainer video

Over the past 12 weeks, SNP activists have manned hundreds of street stalls in an attempt to gauge the public mood on independence in the wake of the Brexit vote. The drive has been accompanied by the so-called National Survey, a 12-question online form which has already been completed by more than 1.7 million Scots.

The survey asks participants how they voted in the last independence referendum, whether or not they voted for Brexit and which side they would back if another vote on Scotland’s future in the UK was held immediately.

The SNP intends to use the data to shape its strategy on independence following the seismic EU referendum result.

https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/stalls-shopping-malls-snp-quietly-prepares-indyref2/

TrickyTree83

Don't blame me, I pointed out the caveats as well as the uniform swing away from the SNP position on most if not all questions.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Don't blame me, I pointed out the caveats as well as the uniform swing away from the SNP position on most if not all questions.

Then you haven't read the polling figures through properly.

EU support has increased since June 65% to 35%
42% to 41% want to stay in the EU if the UK leaves.

And the 'plummeting' drop in indy support is 0.7%. Well within the margin of error since the first referendum. In other words, nothing has changed there much in YouGov polls. What happens in the event of a hard brexit is still an unknown as the question wasn't asked.

I'd usually be happy to debate polls all day with folks here but I've lost trust in them. Just finished 'Unleashing Demons..Craig Oliver' about behind the scenes in the Cameron camp during the Brexit ref. The blind faith they put in polls and the complacency that came with them was evident all the way through till polling day. Was almost as if when Leave figures started looking good polling companies, unintentionally, kept revising their methodology because they genuinely didn't believe their own data. With some even compiling online and telephone polls in tandem trying to work out what was going on.

That's not to say this YouGov poll in incorrect. Just that the SNP would be total fools to base any sort of future strategy on them. Look what happened to Cameron and Remain.

Take a closer look at the new YouGov poll and see if the totality of the information it presents actually tallies with the impression the mainstream media have helped you form about it.

You might be surprised to learn, for example, that the poll shows a 2-1 margin in favour of Britain remaining in the European Union (higher even than in the June referendum), and a narrow majority in favour of Scotland remaining in the EU when the rest of Britain leaves. If the poll had been commissioned by a pro-independence client, it’s likely you would have heard a lot more about how it uncovers a vitally important contradiction in public opinion.

Although a majority are opposed to independence at the moment, it is accepted by an almost 3-1 margin that remaining in the EU after Britain leaves will not be possible without independence. How that contradiction resolves itself is obviously the key to understanding the next independence referendum.

Read more at http://talkradio.co.uk/news/after-trump-and-brexit-disasters-pollsters-are-now-getting-scottish-independence-wrong-too#0toydPufgdSUjsGE.99

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

42% to 41% want to stay in the EU if the UK leaves.

On what terms though. That's a far more complex question.