Is there really a housing shortage?

HENRY78

Population of England & Wales = 53m
Number of Homes (Inc Flats) = 23m


Average amount of people per home = 2.4.


So is there really housing shortage? Surely there are other reasons for the out of control property market/Ponzi Scheme.

Thrugelmir

Under utilised space is more likely the answer. Previous generations used far less.

CLAPTON

HENRY78 wrote: »

Population of England & Wales = 53m
Number of Homes (Inc Flats) = 23m


Average amount of people per home = 2.4.


So is there really housing shortage? Surely there are other reasons for the out of control property market/Ponzi Scheme.

varies from place to place

what is the correct amount of housing?

mwpt

CLAPTON wrote: »

varies from place to place

what is the correct amount of housing?

A good question.

But orthogonal to the question, is there a housing shortage causing prices to increase?

EDIT: As in, do we have fewer homes per capita vs some sort of historical average.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

A good question.

But orthogonal to the question, is there a housing shortage causing prices to increase?

EDIT: As in, do we have fewer homes per capita vs some sort of historical average.

we have a massive surplus of houses as per historic average

remember in the 12th century many lived in fortified 'long house'; one room for 100 people

as we get richer we are inclined to spend our 'surplus' inccome on bigger/nicer homes

[Deleted User]

Or you can believe the estate agents <spit> who say on average they have 37 homes for sale v 273 people looking to buy on their books.
But if you take the s.east out of the equation many areas are struggling to achieve prices last seen 10 years ago.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

HENRY78 wrote: »

is there really housing shortage? Surely there are other reasons for the out of control property market/Ponzi Scheme.

Yes, there is a housing shortage, and it's far and away the main reason for high property prices.


UK mortgage approvals:



House building in England:



Population:



Rents:



House Prices:



Lending is well down on 2007 levels and the long term average, yet property prices have risen to new peaks, wage rises have been constrained since the crash yet rents have soared, and the number of grown adult children living with family is at record high levels, in the millions, but without millions of empty houses for them to move into.

The moral of the last 8 years is that you can't cure a housing shortage by restricting lending, you only make it worse.

And its the shortage, not lending, that ultimately drives up prices and rents.

Mortgage rationing is worsening the housing shortage, so is therefore driving up prices, and sending rents to all time record highs.

cells

There is quite a big shortage of homes in London and a shortage is the SE. There is sufficent supply in the midlands and north.

Overall the UK is going to need to go to 2.1 persons per home over the next 30 years. If the population is 80 million by then we are going to need 10 million more homes (335k a year) of which ideally 100k a year would be within the M25

mwpt

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Lending is well down on 2007 levels and the long term average, yet property prices have risen to new peaks, wage rises have been constrained since the crash yet rents have soared, and the number of grown adult children living with family is at record high levels, in the millions, but without millions of empty houses for them to move into.

The moral of the last 8 years is that you can't cure a housing shortage by restricting lending, you only make it worse.

And its the shortage, not lending, that ultimately drives up prices and rents.

Mortgage rationing is worsening the housing shortage, so is therefore driving up prices, and sending rents to all time record highs.

It is ridiculous to suggest that cheap credit plays no part in the upward pressure on house prices. Even during your so called ideal years of 2000-2007 when lending was at it's easiest, prices were increasing.

Rents are at all time record highs every single year. Quoting figures from 2010 to now to prove they are worse than historically is meaningless when you don't show the historical figures.

Could you rather show rent growth graph from 1970s to now?
Could you show number of dwellings per capita on a graph from 1970 to now?
Could you show some actual stats that mortgages are being unduly restricted despite high prices, rather than because of high prices?

buglawton

CLAPTON wrote: »

we have a massive surplus of houses as per historic average

remember in the 12th century many lived in fortified 'long house'; one room for 100 people

as we get richer we are inclined to spend our 'surplus' inccome on bigger/nicer homes

Agreed, things in the UK are (slightly) better than in the 12th century. Other countries have fared better though.

zagubov

We have smaller floor space per person compared with crowded neighbours like the Netherlands and pretty much all our nearby neighbouring countries for that matter.

As for London, the floor space per resident seems pretty low, but that's my subjective opinion. Not sure if that info can be confirmed by (a) separating out foreign owners who live abroad and underusing their property and (b) finding a comparison of housing density around the other parts of the UK.