The U.S. election and British house prices

SnooksNJ

mwpt wrote: »

I don't know. The world could do with a bit of a shake up though, imo.

Paying 90% in taxes and open borders would shake up the US, I'll give you that.

SnooksNJ

Generali wrote: »

Vote early, vote often. It's a well loved Democrat tactic.

Like this isn't ripe for voting irregularities.

http://www.democratsabroad.org/global_presidential_primary
When I go vote in June and find out someone has already voted in my name I'm going to be !!!!ed. American version of the word.

Filo25

antrobus wrote: »

They've counted (most) of the votes in Georgia and Texas, Clinton won both, and Sanders is now dead in the water.

FiveThirtyEight set Clinton a target of 453 delegates in Super Tuesday neeed to win the nomination. Guess how many she got? Give yourself a biscuit; exactly 453 according to the NYT. Sanders came in at 70% of target. There is something like a 100% chance that Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.

Republicans? Trump did well, but not well enough to bag it. But then nobody else did well enough to suggest they were a threat either.

Agree on both races.

The good news for Trump is that with Cruz having a decent night, he isn't dropping out anytime soon, so the race will likely remain fragmented enough to benefit him, if he can pick up Florida with its winner takes all delegates then Rubio may well be done.

michaels

If Rubio can't win his own state then he has got to be (even more) toast regardless of the electoral arithmetic....

Are there any Hils vs XXX polls out there that demonstrate the Republicans are committing electoral suicide?

Not sure I beleive it though:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/01/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-poll/

Which states that democrats will do a lot better under Saunders the Socialist - how does that work, for Repblicans a Centrist does best, for Democrats an extemist polls best...one for the Cobynistas?

Filo25

michaels wrote: »

If Rubio can't win his own state then he has got to be (even more) toast regardless of the electoral arithmetic....

Are there any Hils vs XXX polls out there that demonstrate the Republicans are committing electoral suicide?

Not sure I beleive it though:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/01/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-poll/

Which states that democrats will do a lot better under Saunders the Socialist - how does that work, for Repblicans a Centrist does best, for Democrats an extemist polls best...one for the Cobynistas?

I think most people don't really know much about Sanders, hence the high favourables.

If he was the Democrat candidate, and the Republicans turned their fire on him that would change very rapidly.

vivatifosi

michaels wrote: »

Are there any Hils vs XXX polls out there that demonstrate the Republicans are committing electoral suicide?

I saw a poll on Sky news today, before you posted this, showing that they were both in the 40%s, with Clinton ahead of Trump by about 4-5% (sorry, can't remember the actual numbers, didn't know you were going to ask this). Certainly not suggestive of a whitewash. Have had a look on their website, couldn't see it.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Filo25 wrote: »

Agree on both races.

The good news for Trump is that with Cruz having a decent night, he isn't dropping out anytime soon, so the race will likely remain fragmented enough to benefit him, if he can pick up Florida with its winner takes all delegates then Rubio may well be done.

If Rubio and Cruz can hold Trump to less than 50% of delegates then the party gets to pick the nominee at Convention.

It's probably not a surprise to anyone that in such a scenario, Rubio would have a good chance of getting that nomination versus the other two, even if he came in third up to that point.

Long shot but still sufficiently within the realms of possibility that I reckon they'll both stay in until Trump gets his 50% plus 1 delegate.....

robin58

Why are you worrying about house prices?

If Trump gets in, their won't be any houses left after he presses the red button.

antrobus

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

If Rubio and Cruz can hold Trump to less than 50% of delegates then the party gets to pick the nominee at Convention.

It's probably not a surprise to anyone that in such a scenario, Rubio would have a good chance of getting that nomination versus the other two, even if he came in third up to that point.

Long shot but still sufficiently within the realms of possibility that I reckon they'll both stay in until Trump gets his 50% plus 1 delegate.....

That's the difference between the Republican and Democrat contests. Clinton has it sown up (barring something miraculous); Trump is the favourite, but has not yet sown it up.

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

...Which states that democrats will do a lot better under Saunders the Socialist - how does that work, for Repblicans a Centrist does best, for Democrats an extemist polls best...one for the Cobynistas?

American politics tends to focus much more on the personal.

There are lots of reasons why voters might dislike Trump. There are a number of reasons why why voters might dislike Clinton. There are a lot fewer reasons why they might dislike Sanders, because few Americans outside of Vermont have ever heard of him before now.