Europe... yes or no for investors?

jamesd

Keep_pedalling wrote: »

There will be lots of uneducated voting on both sides, because when it comes to politics most people don't have a clue and will end up voting on gut instinct. For most people economics won't come into it.

I think you may be right about that. One of the key things is that Cameron has failed to deliver a binding agreement about ever closer union within the EU. All he got was an agreement if and presumably when the treaties are changed to do it. Given that it's the policy of the Labour party to support ever closer union, at referendum time all that there will be is a commitment to do it unless Labour becomes the government before the treaty change happens and withdraws the request. Then I assume that any future UK government that wants to can also withdraw it at any subsequent treaty change.

Longer term that leads to the potential for a rerun in Europe of the War of the Rebellion (it's official name, and the name that was used by the northern initiators and victors at the time), more commonly in the UK called the American Civil War, when 11 of 34 states wished to leave a union primarily for economic and civil rights reasons and were compelled by military force to stay within it.

Some of the arguments from back then were recently replayed around Greece, when Greece argued that it could leave the EU if it wanted to and some other EU members disagreed.

talexuser

Will a lot of Japanese manufacturers, Nissan, Honda, Sony etc eventually change their investment out of the UK and manufacture in a country inside the EU if we leave, to avoid any tariff possibilities now or in the future? Hence our prosperity worse?

Linton

jamesd wrote: »

I think you may be right about that. One of the key things is that Cameron has failed to deliver a binding agreement about ever closer union within the EU. All he got was an agreement if and presumably when the treaties are changed to do ..........

"Ever closer union" is just a statement, it doesnt make anything happen. Not having the statement doesnt stop anything happening.. When and in what areas the union gets closer will be primarily due to economic pressures, not statements of principle. For example, the general desire to get tax from the multinationals and reduce tax avoidance in general could lead to tax harmonisation.

Superscrooge

My biggest fear about the referendum is having to listen to Nigel Farage on the news every night for the next four months. Aarrgh!

BananaRepublic

Who gets to vote? Do Polish citizens have the right to vote? In which case what happens if we vote to stay in, and the difference in the vote count is much less than the number of East Europeans in the country? That would be a vote for staying in opposed by the majority of British citizens. Hardly democratic, and rather ironic. But I bet the media will be too scared to mention this, due to fear of the 'R' word.

It sounds not unlike some Eastern European countries which were stuffed with Russian citizens by Russia, to sway the balance in favour of Russian union.

BananaRepublic

Superscrooge wrote: »

My biggest fear about the referendum is having to listen to Nigel Farage on the news every night for the next four months. Aarrgh!

Sounds like you must have committed a horrible crime given the punishment. To be honest, I think Farage is a bit of a clown and not fit to lead the country, but all too often I find myself agreeing with many of his statements. Given that his party got the most votes in the EU referendum, but few in the UK elections, I suspect my sentiments are widely shared.

bigfreddiel

Europe yes or no?

It will make no difference which way it goes.

The funny thing about this tho' is that us the general public are going to decide, and no one has enough information or understanding to make this decision.

We will never have all the information we need, even if we did we won't read it (no one reads any financial documents do they).

Everyone's decision will be based on something that happens a few weeks before the vote, especially if we hear about 'those foreigners, coming over here, taking all our jobs, sending benefits back home, taking free medical treatment, and so on'.

That's what will decide in or out.

Cheers fj

jamesd

Linton wrote: »

"Ever closer union" is just a statement, it doesnt make anything happen. Not having the statement doesnt stop anything happening.

It's not just a statement it is a declaration of intent and objective:

"RESOLVED to continue the process of creating an ever closer Union among the peoples of Europe, in which decisions are taken as closely as possible to the citizen in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity"

Linton wrote: »

When and in what areas the union gets closer will be primarily due to economic pressures, not statements of principle. For example, the general desire to get tax from the multinationals and reduce tax avoidance in general could lead to tax harmonisation.

The primary reason for the objective being there is political and social, not economic. I assume it'll be continued on the basis of a mixture of objectives.

The harmonsation of tax is what has led to one of the dodges used to avoid tax. Harmonised VAT law says that for many types of intangible goods the sale happens in the jurisdiction were the seller says it is located instead of the location of the purchaser, so by setting up in a low VAT jurisdiction lots of VAT doesn't get paid. Of course with increased focus on issues like this we may see some change to this approach and there are already many exceptions where the tax rate of the purchaser is used instead.

jamesd

talexuser wrote: »

Will a lot of Japanese manufacturers, Nissan, Honda, Sony etc eventually change their investment out of the UK and manufacture in a country inside the EU if we leave, to avoid any tariff possibilities now or in the future? Hence our prosperity worse?

Maybe but it is worth knowing that UK car manufacturers have set up factories elsewhere in the EU and if there were tariffs it's not something that could work in one direction only.

jamesd

Superscrooge wrote: »

My biggest fear about the referendum is having to listen to Nigel Farage on the news every night for the next four months. Aarrgh!

It's a shame that we don't have the US "cruel and unusual punishment" laws and that even if we did they wouldn't apply...