Europe... yes or no for investors?

digannio

Most of what I've read suggests that long-term it would be better for investors to vote to stay in Europe. Of course there are many other reasons for opting to stay in or leave the EU, but from an investor's points of view I believe staying in is the only way to go. What d'ya think?

nb73

Well, we can invest in European companies whether UK is in or out of Europe. Eg. I hold shares in companies listed in Spain, France and Germany.

Actually may seek to invest more in European companies if the UK becomes more distant from Eurozone. Then if it turns out badly for the UK, I'm at least a little hedged. But if it turns out well for the UK, that's OK, because the UK is where live.

savings_my_hobby

Not really sure it will affect investors either way. We'll still trade and life will still go on, it's really just a question on a membership of a political union.

MarkBargain

If we vote to leave I suspect it would reduce UK share prices due to the uncertainty that follows e.g. setting up new trade deals, working out which EU rules we have to follow anyway to trade with Europe (probably all of them). Longer term...who knows.

kidmugsy

We have no choice but to stay in Europe: that's a mere matter of geography. We would be very wise to vote to leave the EU, because either (i) we would be better off out of it, or (ii) we'll be offered better terms to stay after a referendum decision to leave, and then we can have a second referendum on the new terms. To stay on the current terms seems to me to be very foolish.

planteria

nb73 wrote: »

Well, we can invest in European companies whether UK is in or out of Europe. Eg. I hold shares in companies listed in Spain, France and Germany.

agreed. Europe has taken a battering, and will continue to do so, with further problems for the EU to come.. but there are quality companies with great futures. it is a matter of identifying them and investing, or finding a manager who will do so successfully.

for the UK as a nation we would be better of financially outside, as Project Fear is just that, and the costs far outweigh the benefits, whatever spin we are fed by our EU-backed media. if we leave we will be absolutely fine outside of the EU. some companies might wobble about their commitment to remain invested here, some might even leave, but managed properly we can be very a very successful Top 5 World Economy.

trading with, and investing in, France, Germany, Switzerland, other European nations, the USA, Canada, China, India, Brazil all make good sense. trade is stifled now. but as investors we are already free to invest. it's good:).

atush

I think the UK markets will tank (maybe euro ones too) with a Brexit. If it would last or quickly recover who knows.

Personally, i'd vote to stay. but I dont have a vote.

GooeyBlob

I'm waiting to see the detail concerning protection for our financial services industry; we all know what certain other countries would like to do to it so that's paramount. If I feel the guarantees are sufficient I'll vote to remain, if not I shall vote to leave. As simple as that.

Keep_pedalling

I think the short term effect of an exit would be bad for both Europe and the U.K. and mid term might not be too pretty for the UK either, especially if this triggers the break up of the U.K. which is perfectly possible if the Scots vote to stay and English votes take us out.

Long term, who knows?

This English voter prefers to stick with the devil you know.

Superscrooge

digannio wrote: »

Most of what I've read suggests that long-term it would be better for investors to vote to stay in Europe. Of course there are many other reasons for opting to stay in or leave the EU, but from an investor's points of view I believe staying in is the only way to go. What d'ya think?

I also believe remaining in EU will give the best returns on investments.

Scarpacci

I don't think it has a huge economic effect or will affect British investors. There may be some short term trouble if Britain does leave, as the negotiations drag on and the extent British access to the Eurozone is determined.

It's worth remembering we import more from the EU than we export to them. Exporting matters much more to the Eurozone economy. With the Eurozone still on its knees, do the big German, French and Italian exporters really want to lose access to our market? Yes, the UK alone is smaller, but the actual balance of "power" is more finely balanced in that situated - they have a lot to lose in access to the UK market when their own economies are barely chugging along. I think a relatively small number of British exporters could be affected, but again we're a large market of 60 million people. The large multinationals will still want to service Britain in some way, but there's a question over, say, whether Renault would be exporting cars to the EU from the UK in the future. In a tit-for-tat trade war, though, there's a question whether Volkswagen (to pull a name out of the hat) would be exporting from the EU to the UK or would be forced to manufacture here.

It's madness for the pro-EU side to suggest we would somehow lose significant amounts of business. Anybody who understands the large multinational companies knows they are present across the globe, often opening subsidiaries in countries much smaller than us. They will open plants in every tiny country which lets them. They're not shunning their noses at 60m populations elsewhere in the world, why on earth would they do that to one of the most developed markets in the world? It's complete balderdash. Whether they're able to sell into the UK from the EU or from within the UK, they're going to want to sell their products here. And vice versa. British business could lose some cost by having to move some EU-bound production into the EU, but if it's still an attractive market for them, that's what they'll do. The cost could even be lower than the burden placed by EU bureaucracy, though always take those figures with a pinch of salt.

The one thing that has continually surprised me about EU integration, or the lack of it, as it pertains to investors, is how hard it is to invest in European equities and deal with withholding tax. Anybody who invests in U.S. stocks will know you fill in a fairly simple (considering it's from the IRS) form, and your broker will lower (or completely remove, in the case of SIPPs) the U.S. withholding tax. No such thing exists if you want to invest in Danone, Novo Nordisk, Henkel, etc. You will, in most cases, find it's impossible to get the tax back or decide that it's not worth the bureaucratic effort.