Unemployment drops by 60,000

lisyloo

N1AK wrote: »

As to Graham's original post, I don't think it should be a surprise that people who are able to move here are doing so given our comparatively good employment and pay levels. The fact shouldn't be a shock, whether you see it as a good, neutral, or bad thing is of course a different matter.

We are now almost at full employment - given that a small % are unemployable, perhaps sickly or very resistant to work.
If the immigrants didn't come we'd have shortages in some cases in essential services like nursing.

Of course if we don't provide the infrastructure such as transport, housing and front line healthcare for a growing population then there will be issues.

westernpromise

More stupid sheeple pointlessly getting jobs just so they can pay top dollar for an overpriced rabbit hutch in that cesspit, London. Mugs! They should short property and live in Northampton for 20 years waiting for the crash.

CLAPTON

lisyloo wrote: »

We are now almost at full employment - given that a small % are unemployable, perhaps sickly or very resistant to work.
If the immigrants didn't come we'd have shortages in some cases in essential services like nursing.

Of course if we don't provide the infrastructure such as transport, housing and front line healthcare for a growing population then there will be issues.

no we would not

firstly immigration is part of the demand side as well as the supply side
secondly ; where there is labours shortage the market will response by
-increasing wages
-increasing productivity

one might have thought that people would welcome wage and productivity rises

massively reducing immigration doesn't stop us welcoming those with shortage skills

Generali

cells wrote: »

interestingly your link also shows that about 1 million of the 1.7 million unemployed folk have been unemployed for 6 months or less and another 0.25 million have been unemployed for 6-12 months

Using that info we can actually see that aprox 75% of those in the unemployed for 0-6 months category find a job within 6 months or less

So a large portion of our unemployment figure is actually churn of people leaving one job before going to another


Maybe unemployment should be quoted separately as unemployed for 6 months or more in which case the figure is 0.7 million or about 2% unemployed

It really gets interesting if you start delving into the data. Construction workers' wages are up about 6% yoy. Maybe time to get some more ads into Polish newspapers to get more plumbers over!

Talking of revisions to unemployment data, perhaps a net figure could be used where we subtract the number of job vacancies (table 22). Funnily enough, that would leave us with roughly 0 unemployed!

The figure for number of unemployed per job vacancy is interesting too. It is currently as low as it has ever been and falling. The data also reflects the falling power of unions. In September 1979, well over 11 million working days were lost to strikes. In September 2015 the equivalent figure was 8,000!

The UK has a lower unemployment rate than any EU country except Germany and mighty Malta!

Youth unemployment is collapsing: in 2011 it was 40%. Now it is 25% and falling fast. It is also really notable that while youth unemployment is high by the usual measure, using the cells patented unemployment rate for 16 & 17 year olds falls to just 6.5%: it turns out most unemployment for the very young is mostly frictional.

Interesting stuff huh!

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

forget that post look at generali link it shows ~16.06% of the workforce as non uk born

So if they make up less than 16.06% of the population they on average work more jobs per capita if they make up more than 16.06% of the population they work less jobs per capita

I understand the logic : I fail to see its relevance to the discussion as to the effect of new arrivals contribution to the workforce.

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

It really gets interesting if you start delving into the data. Construction workers' wages are up about 6% yoy. Maybe time to get some more ads into Polish newspapers to get more plumbers over!

if one takes the view that rebalancing the existing work force to do more essential jobs then no, it is a very bad idea.
Much better to allow wages in construction to rise and so attract more people to switch jobs and create incentives for business to improve efficiency and innovate.

and of course the million poles that live here create their own demand for housing.

Carl31

more people in jobs, wages up c3%, yet no inflation

whys that?

Generali

Carl31 wrote: »

more people in jobs, wages up c3%, yet no inflation

whys that?

1. Oil price falling
2. Banks not lending

michaels

3 Productivity Gains
4 Shift in total returns from capital to labour with tightening labour market

...and that 3% wage growth is only 1.9% according to the data

the_flying_pig

I stopped believing anything that the ONS says the minute they moved out of London & into Wales, i.e. the thick end of a decade ago. How can they possibly recruit & retain statisticians worthy of the name to work down there?