Nice People Thread No. 15, a Cyber Summer

silvercar

vivatifosi wrote: »

There are very few songs that you would hear on international radio. I can count them on one, or maybe one and a half hands.

They are: Belgium, UK (I know that because I've actually heard it on the radio), Sweden, Netherlands. Maybe France.

Belgium is first up in the running order. That will not help its case, though should set us up for a fun evening. Here's the running order:

1. Belgium - lovely, good female vocals over a very catch mix of Bruno Mars meets another one bites the dust meets Nile Rodgers.

2. Czech Rep - time to get a cup of tea, or something stronger, or dry your hair, or go to the toilet. Yes, already.

3. Netherlands - shame this one is on so early, a nice country song. Also has the benefit of lyrics in English that I can actually understand (the same cannot be said of all the entries, trust me).

4. Azerbaijan - sounds like a Leona Lewis song, which is rather funny, as Leona Lewis wrote one of the losing contestants for the UK Song for Europe contest this year. Fair to middling but samey.

5. Hungary - apparently he looks like a bloke who did well in the X Factor. I don't watch the X Factor so have no idea if this is true. Not a bad song, sung in English (really hard to understand English)... with whistling in the chorus, how very Eurovish of him! The Drums remind me of the Chinese Olympic Opening Ceremony in 2008, but on a MUCH smaller budget. Will probably get top 10.

6. Italy - singing in their national language. For that reason, unlikely to do well, except in Albania. Where they watch Italian TV. Oh, and San Marino of course. Not helped by the fact that it is like the Men in Black men have just flashed one of those thingies in your face... how did it go again? Instantly forgettable.

7. Israel - one of a number of very similar sounding songs this year. He is a very good singer though. Openly gay contestant, very popular with the audience.

8. Bulgaria - deserves to be in the final, but very samey. She sings in English, though I have no idea what the chorus is, sounds like "Hang me Luther". I'm guessing she wants to further her career in British crime drama.

9. Sweden - will obviously get a huge cheer. This is quite an understated song so hard to know how it will do. But does actually sound like something that would get played outside of the Eurovision bubble. Also sounds like no other song in the contest this year. Hooray!

10. Germany - described by someone as "dressed by Build a Bear Workshop", which is scarily true. Another song which sounds like all the others. Phew, thank goodness for the dress code then.

Rest to follow in another post....

vivatifosi wrote: »

11. France - nice catchy song, in French and English. One of my favourites. Not sure how it will do.

12. Poland - sorry, no washerwomen this year Wheezy, it's a man with long hair and a beard, but he is no Conchita. Samey ballad (actually there aren't many ballads this year), with a classic Eurovision bridge. Interesting exercise in demographics. If it gets a big vote from the UK it will indicate the size of the Polish diaspora here and could trigger a Brexit.

13. Australia - good contemporary song. But is arguably the best of the ones that all sound the same.

14. Cyprus - one of two rock bands to make it to the final this year. It may do better than I expect as it doesn't sound like all of the others. I prefer Georgia's rock song though. Reminds me of another song, but not sure which.

15. Serbia - a real belter by a woman with a big voice. Classic Eurovision song in the old style. She grabs it by the Balkans and runs with it.

16. Lithuania - good honest pop tune that I could hear on the radio. One of two Baltic songs to make it through this year, so they could vote for each other rather than Russia. Sounds like a real life upbeat Westlife song, which is quite ironic considering real Westlife member Nicky Byrne didn't get out of the semi finals for Ireland.

17. Croatia - another song from the samey Eurovision song machine. Though with enunciation that reminds me a bit of Bjork. Which is strange considering she's from the other end of Europe. This one is quite pretty though.

18. Russia - they have thrown the kitchen sink at this one. By far the cleverest staging (though borrows heavily from last year's winner). Sounds like all the others. I wish he wouldn't flare his nostrils while singing. "Thunder and Lightning, it's getting exciting, lights up the sky", so you get some Russian space policy in there as well. Oh and the cheeesiest Eurovision bridge. Will surely win, no? Let's hope not.

19. Spain - as one of the big 5 I haven't heard this much. Will get a bit lost by following Russia. Not a stand out.

20. Latvia - there's something about this I like.. Interesting baseline. Should get 12 from Lithuania at least.

21. Ukraine - I've described this one earlier. Not sure what to make of it. In a cheery song contest it is about Stalin and sung partly in Crimean. There's somethiing interesting about it though.

22. Malta - should do reasonably in the hall at least if the cheer is anything to go by. Reminds me a bit of early Emile Sande, but not as good. A bit of a gay anthem.

23. Georgia - great positioning. Trying to look a bit like Oasis and channel the White Stripes drumming. I don't mind it.

24. Austria - decided not to sing in German this year, so chose to sing in, um French instead. Pretty song. Not sure how it will do. Could get ten from France though.

25. UK - catchy pop song with a great ear wormy chorus. Great position in the draw. Hopefully my top ten or better predictions will come true.

26. Armenia - this is Wheezy's favourite scantily dressed contestant. Sounds like about half of the other songs this year. It is being played last to see if Wheezy is still awake and paying attention.

Thanks viva!

Betfair is now running a "winner excl Russia", so assume all the money is on Russia to win.

Generali

silvercar wrote: »

Thanks viva!

Betfair is now running a "winner excl Russia", so assume all the money is on Russia to win.

Betfair will put up a market if you ask them to (and it's not blatantly ridiculous).

Betfair is a marketplace not a bookmaker and if you are going to use Betfair to bet then it's worth remembering the difference if you want to make money rather than betting for fun.

silvercar

Generali wrote: »

Betfair will put up a market if you ask them to (and it's not blatantly ridiculous).

Betfair is a marketplace not a bookmaker and if you are going to use Betfair to bet then it's worth remembering the difference if you want to make money rather than betting for fun.

The only thing I understand of Betfair is that you can lay bets as easily as place them. Even then I do get confused with the laying odds.

At the moment, for your amusement and mine, I have the following bets:

£5 on UK being in the top 10 - potential win £55
£2 on Sweden being in the top 3 - potential win £5.90
£5 lay against Armenia being in the top 5 - potential loss of £7.50 / gain of £5.

The UK bet was the original hunch/ viva inspiration that I should have taken michaels advice and cashed out for £30 but missed the boat. I still have that set up if the odds fall.
The Sweden bet was a bit of fun based on viva's interpretation again
The Armenia one was because I saw something funny on the odds and jumped in. Am waiting to cash that one out if the odds move. Could cash out now to break even, but that is boring.

I need to add that this is my first bet in 2 years. So not quite signing up to gamblers anonymous.

Generali

silvercar wrote: »

The only thing I understand of Betfair is that you can lay bets as easily as place them. Even then I do get confused with the laying odds.

At the moment, for your amusement and mine, I have the following bets:

£5 on UK being in the top 10 - potential win £55
£2 on Sweden being in the top 3 - potential win £5.90
£5 lay against Armenia being in the top 5 - potential loss of £7.50 / gain of £5.

The UK bet was the original hunch/ viva inspiration that I should have taken michaels advice and cashed out for £30 but missed the boat. I still have that set up if the odds fall.
The Sweden bet was a bit of fun based on viva's interpretation again
The Armenia one was because I saw something funny on the odds and jumped in. Am waiting to cash that one out if the odds move. Could cash out now to break even, but that is boring.

I need to add that this is my first bet in 2 years. So not quite signing up to gamblers anonymous.

So using digital odds you have:

- UK at 11 to make the top 10 (current lay on Betfair is 12 so no profit there)
- Sweden at 5.9 (8.8 on Betfair to lay so no profit)
- Armenia laid at 1.5 (2.5 to back on Betfair so you could close out for a profit, the profit depending on the exposure you want to retain)

On Betfair you can no longer back Russia to be in the top 10 and you can lay at 99-1 on. I don't claim to know much about this stuff but laying Russia to be in the top 5 at 19-1 on seems like a reasonable punt. Betting the price of a couple of pints against a really good meal out seems like a decent punt to me.

You lot are watching this, are the Russians really that strong? Would they honestly never come outside the top 10 more than once if you ran the competition for a century?

I'm not watching but I can run the numbers. On reflection maybe laying Russia to make the top three is the bet.

Beware the mug bets. Last place betting is for fools. The book has been set hoping that the Dutch will want to bet against the Germans out of spite or something.

Pyxis

This should sober you up, Vivatifosi! :rotfl:

How long have you been on here? :eek:





But congrats anyway!

chris_m

Bad news on the tea bread I mentioned the other day - it was very nice
Will have to make some more now.

Meanwhile, the leek/chestnut stuffed hoggett breast is in the oven now.

silvercar

So using digital odds you have:

- UK at 11 to make the top 10 (current lay on Betfair is 12 so no profit there)
- Sweden at 5.9 (8.8 on Betfair to lay so no profit)
- Armenia laid at 1.5 (2.5 to back on Betfair so you could close out for a profit, the profit depending on the exposure you want to retain)

Can cash out the UK bet for £18 profit. Which I won't.

Pyxis

chris_m wrote: »

Meanwhile, the leek/chestnut stuffed hoggett breast is in the oven now.

Yum yum yum yum!

chris_m

Pyxis wrote: »

Yum yum yum yum!

Needs more practice - too much of the stuffing fell out :mad:

Still tasted good though, where's the satisfied belly-rub smiley? :rotfl:

Pyxis

Do you mean this one? :rotfl: