stockmarkets -are we nearing the bottom or is there further to go ??

bowlhead99

That's true, but of course the market doesn't know everything, which is why it moves at all.

For example, UK stocks and the GBP exchange rate might be lower now than they would otherwise be, because of potential Brexit. The market has taken uncertainty into account. But after the vote when the facts are known, it will still move, from a position of "part way between the extremes" to "one of the extremes".

So, if you have a strong view on what you perceive is possible or likely to happen, you might want to buy in or sell out, based on what might happen to your portfolio if you take no action and whether that result is something you would be OK with.

As such it is not an invalid stance to limit your exposure to shocks by exiting the positions you think are at risk of shocks, or which might present buying opportunities another time. Even though " the market " reflects the buying and selling pressure of all the other participants, those participants might have very different goals to yours and so you don't necessarily have to just sit there thinking market knows best. Feel free to put forward your "vote" for the next direction of the market, no matter how practically insignificant it will be.

Alternatively stay invested and if you think you know better than others, place bets on referendum outcomes, exchange rate movements, market levels etc with a bookie to "hedge" your exposure to what could happen.

[Deleted User]

trade what you see, not what you guess and if in doubt then cash is king. How are you doing niak, is your portfolio looking good?

Since dec/january I have done a fair few trades, increased portfolio by 4% since then and I want to hang onto it. HSW was one example, sold it today, up enough for me. Still got mileage but will wait to buy in again. BA. was another, I am not going through the whole list but just saying that I do like to wrap up profits when I can. Tomorrow I`ll be tediously working out limit buys and that helps me to sit on my hands

2010

kittie wrote: »

trade what you see, not what you guess and if in doubt then cash is king. How are you doing niak, is your portfolio looking good?

Since dec/january I have done a fair few trades, increased portfolio by 4% since then and I want to hang onto it. HSW was one example, sold it today, up enough for me. Still got mileage but will wait to buy in again. BA. was another, I am not going through the whole list but just saying that I do like to wrap up profits when I can. Tomorrow I`ll be tediously working out limit buys and that helps me to sit on my hands

Kittie, you obviously know what you`re doing and have the time to research and do it and of course more importantly confidence to do it.And you probably enjoy it.
Anyone green would struggle.

For older people that have been through all that and have made their bit and don`t want to lose it, cash is king.

N1AK

kittie wrote: »

trade what you see, not what you guess and if in doubt then cash is king. How are you doing niak, is your portfolio looking good?

I'm doing roughly however well the world stock market is doing and I think my portfolio is fine (if a little UK heavy due to my me previously having a home bias and it taking some time to gradually adjust.

My investments are in index trackers split roughly to match the weighting of different regions and I invest regularly regardless of market 'performance'.

I'm not overly interested in comparing investment performance, comparisons over periods of less than a few years seem pretty pointless, and I'm even less interested in comparing performance against people who don't publish their trades in real time.

N1AK

bowlhead99 wrote: »

That's true, but of course the market doesn't know everything, which is why it moves at all.

I think that statement is mistaken. If the market did know everything then the market would move all the time. Knowing everything doesn't mean seeing into the future, it means knowing the odds of future events, and as future events unfold odd change and thus values change.

Obviously the market will value between alternative major events, but that doesn't change the principle that you need to beat the market predictions (or more likely get lucky) to beat the market consistently. It's also obvious that you shouldn't have money you can't afford to lose on the stock markets in the first place.

Rollinghome

2010 wrote: »

Things look really crap now and in the near future.

The EU referendum
The migrant crisis
China slowdown
Oil price slump
DEBT everwhere, not just indeviduals but countries
Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton
The Euro
Iran,Iraq,ISIS,Russia,Syria,N Korea
Idiot politicions,corrupt politicions, corrupt EU officials.

You make it sound like a great time to buy.

Kendall80

I've just locked in some gains and moved a portion of my portfolio to cash. This improvement in the major indices towards the ECB meeting could lead Draghi to hold fire again against all expectations. Markets swung lower last time that happened.

2010

Malthusian wrote: »

Everybody already knows about those things. Why do you believe that your insight into those issues is better than the aggregate of worldwide financial institutions; why do you think they haven't already been priced in?

Everyone already know about them but they can only price in so much.
They know about the EU ref. but not the outcome.

If N.Korea suddenly fired a missle into S.Korea would the market go up or down?
Markets move faster than you can.

Any one of the things I listed is uncertain and could spark a sell off at any time.
If two or three happened together would the market go up or down?

The outcome of the US election is uncertain and will keep Wall St. on hold until they know.
There`s no good news out there only debt that`s unsustainable.

It took the FTSE100 sixteen years to get back to record levels and since then its lost 800 points through mainly China and Oil.
Why wasn`t that priced in before it happened?

BananaRepublic

Things are always bad, except when we are near a peak. Then everyone says to buy.

Seriously, a phrase sometime used is "climbing a wall of fear". After a while shares start climbing even though things look bad. That presumably is because the markets have factored in all of the negatives, and can start to grow again.

Oh, and recently I put a large wad of dosh in the markets (ISA and SIPP). So I deserve a pat on the back for mentioning this. And I put in lots at the last crash, and in the big crash before that. Mind you, it's best to feed in money and not time the markets, as the Sunday Times's Ian Cowie reminded us last weekend.

2010

Rollinghome wrote: »

You make it sound like a great time to buy.

I won`t be buying.
You must make your own decision.