stockmarkets -are we nearing the bottom or is there further to go ??

Glen_Clark

bowlhead99 wrote: »

I think the stat was along the lines of, at the end of the 80s the cost of property in Tokyo was 4x the price of London, now it is the opposite.

Thats interesting because such statistics tend to be independent. If we could also compare the change in the GBP/JPY exchange rate we should get more realistic measures of inflation than the UK Government's statistics?

bowlhead99

Glen_Clark wrote: »

If we could also compare the change in the GBP/JPY exchange rate we should get more realistic measures of inflation than the UK Government's statistics?

Well of course you can look at the market exchange rates over time as they are freely available and you could also look at other global measures of inflation and exchange rates via common items such as the price of Big Macs which The Economist publishes on a regular basis.

I don't know that looking at the prices of things in Japan or GBP exchange rates against different currencies is going to tell you whether or not our ONS figures for domestic inflation are useful or not. Personally I don't incur much apartment rent in Tokyo or buy much rice from an Osakan market within my monthly spend. However, you can dig around the links for PPP data here: http://www.oecd.org/std/prices-ppp/purchasingpowerparities-frequentlyaskedquestionsfaqs.htm#FAQ4

Clearly though, as with CPI/RPI etc etc the 'basket' of prices used, and their weighting, is critical for a meaningful result.

Also, every month when CPI, RPI etc headlines are released, ONS do a 60-tab spreadsheet analysing out the components, e.g. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-323669

You can probably assess that sort of data to read whatever you like into the UK figures and replace the weightings with your own to come up with your own measure of inflation.

Combined with various other ONS data I'm sure you'll be able to prove that the government are lying to you when they follow the EU HICP rules to put together the CPI measure; after all, one can prove pretty much anything with statistics, so getting them to back up your opinion that the government are scoundrels will be pretty easy. You'll find links to the individual national statistics offices of some other countries via https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/prices/hicp/html/index.en.html , but of course as you trust European politicians no more than their UK counterparts I don't suppose any of it is useful.

Thrugelmir

bowlhead99 wrote: »

and exchange rates via common items such as the price of Big Macs - one group publishes that on a regular basis.

Useful for cost of living comparisons. Less so for exchange rates unless one is also an expert in VAT or GST as it's commonly called elsewhere.

redux

bowlhead99 wrote: »

... and you could also look at other global measures of inflation and exchange rates via common items such as the price of Big Macs which The Economist publishes on a regular basis.

I've eaten at McDonalds 9 times in my life, dragged there by friends, spanning 30 years and 6 countries, and I can't remember any of the prices ...

Mind you, that's more times than I've bought The Economist

Do they also do indexes for car tyres or beer?

BananaRepublic

Glen_Clark wrote: »

That was a tongue in cheek comment about your post sounding like a Conservative Party Broadcast (which it did).

I merely stated some facts.

Glen_Clark wrote: »

More importantly, I was hoping you wouldn't ignore the questions in the previous post because I am interested in what you think are 'Left Wing' or 'Right Wing' principles? (or if the politicians have any principles?)

The questions are not relevant to the thread. Do start a new thread if you wish to discuss politics.

BananaRepublic

redux wrote: »

I've eaten at McDonalds 9 times in my life, dragged there by friends, spanning 30 years and 6 countries, and I can't remember any of the prices ...

Mind you, that's more times than I've bought The Economist

I bet the Economist was tastier and more nutritious. Lower in sugar and salt too.

BananaRepublic

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Understanding politics is hugely important to investors.

It is largely irrelevant to most investors.

Glen_Clark wrote: »

For example selling productive industry and buying existing land and property would have avoided losses and netted huge gains if you had known in advance the politicians were going to tax and regulate productive industry into bankruptcy, whilst subsidising property speculation with taxpayers borrowed money. Or even buying shares in uneconomic and unreliable wind generators if you had known how much money the politicians were going to throw at them.

Ignoring your distinctive political views, most investors leave such investing decisions to professionals, and select the sector e.g. UK smaller companies, Japan equities etc.

Glen_Clark

BananaRepublic wrote: »

most investors leave such investing decisions to professionals, and select the sector e.g. UK smaller companies, Japan equities etc.

Most investors don't even make the market average. Wheras those investors who position thermselves in the sectors where the (so called Free Market Capitalist) politicians are about to throw the most subsidy eg Banks (Bondholders), Property, Wind Farms etc tend to make far more money.

Glen_Clark

BananaRepublic wrote: »

Ignoring your distinctive political views, .

Which you said were 'extreme left wing' but can't say what that means.
I believe in Free Market Capitalism.
With all Osborne's Housing Market and Banking Market interventions that must make him more 'left wing' than I am - although of course his form of Socialism is for the rich.

lolamia

Has anyone ever tried currency trading?