How Low Will FTSE go?

racing_blue

For what it is worth, I don't think the FTSE100 will drop below the 5639 it hit last Wednesday.

Which is the not the reason why I just bought a FTSE100 tracker. The reason was that it helped maintain my desired asset allocation.

I don't *think* the FTSE100 will drop lower, but I *know* that it could...

Thrugelmir

racing_blue wrote: »

For what it is worth, I don't think the FTSE100 will drop below the 5639 it hit last Wednesday.

Never tempt fate.

Eco_Miser

warehouse wrote: »

Asking others for monetary advice is the surest way to lose money.

Asking won't lose any money; acting on that advice without doing your own research might do.
Buying from a cold caller without asking others for advice is almost certain to lose money.

racing_blue

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Never tempt fate.

It is very welcome to drop lower! I'd like that, as a buyer.

Glen_Clark

You need to add dividends to the index to see what it has made, and index's like the S&P 500 have lower yields because the US tax system encourages share buybacks in favour of paying out dividends. The FTSE 100 is heavy on sectors like oil, miners and banks - that have all done badly recently, but they have done well in the past and may do again.
My biggest concern is, despite what they say, the UK government seems more interested in supporting house prices than productive industry. And that is terrible for the productive side of the UK economy on which the FTSE250, and to a lesser extent the FTSE100, depends.

DesG

The answer you are looking for: RND(0,∞)

redux

I don't see the FTSE 100 as highly relevant.

On average the investments I have seem to have peaked about a month ago not last April like the FTSE, and aren't down anywhere near 20% since then.

This is a group of investment trusts, one of which is mainly in large UK companies, so that did peak in July, but there are others abroad and on average perhaps a bit overweight in smaller companies.

And what does the big index tell us over several years? It's lower than in 1999, but someone's investments might have done relatively badly if they'd only doubled (for the effect of reinvested dividends) since then.

bowlhead99

redux wrote: »

I don't see the FTSE 100 as highly relevant.

On average the investments I have seem to have peaked about a month ago not last April like the FTSE, and aren't down anywhere near 20% since then.

It's not massively relevant but as it's the 'barometer' of health of financial markets which gets pushed down our throats at every TV or radio news report or at the top of the business section in a paper, you can see why it gets attention.

Most people investing for the long haul wouldn't have been planning to arbitrarily sell off their portfolio last April and so if the price falls by a chunk since last April it is not exactly the end of the world. As it happens I do tend to look at my portfolio performance from April to April because of tax years etc, so will probably see a fall this time if the markets are similarly jittery in a couple of months time, but hardly going to be lifechanging.

Just having a glance at a few funds on a portfolio monitor for a family member's ISA - last 12 months shows a Europe fund up 3%, a US fund down 3%, an emerging markets fund down 17%, a small/microcap fund up 10%; Blackrock Consensus 85 and Vanguard 80 (yes she has both!) both down about 4.7%, a UK managed equities fund up 1%.

So a bit of mixed bag. The losses would be bigger and the gains smaller if measured from the April peak. But why measure from the peak?! Nobody plans to invest at the peak or sell at the peak so it is something of a red herring.

I'll take a punt on FTSE's low point being in the 5300-5400 this year - there's no particular reason why it couldn't fall that far, but no real science to say that it should or will either! I think it probably won't be as bad as another 10% down from here but I'm not going to be all shocked if it is.

redux

bowlhead99 wrote: »

It's not massively relevant but as it's the 'barometer' of health of financial markets which gets pushed down our throats at every TV or radio news report or at the top of the business section in a paper, you can see why it gets attention.

I know. This will sound daft, and is, but I neglected for some time to inform some fund managers of a change of address. So from occasional news like that in the background I assumed I wasn't doing all that well. Pleasant surprise when I eventually pulled my finger out.

talexuser

I'm hoping the downturn lasts until April 6th. £15240 of cheap funds for the long term will do nicely, thank you