If we vote for Brexit what happens

posh*spice

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

:rotfl:

Uh huh....

That would be the same Japan that's got the highest level of national debt in the world at 200%+ of GDP because they've run out of young workers to tax while dealing with a massive ageing population and restricting immigration.

The Japan that just this week approved direct monetisation of government debt with central bank holdings from printed money predicted to be another 100% of GDP within a year.

Anyone that thinks Japan is the model for the UK is utterly delusional.

Have you been to Japan? It's lovely.

My point is.. Facts and figures sre just that ...

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

so you are now claiming that 'higher population = higher GDP per capita' ONLY applies to the UK cities?

No dont make !!!! up. I said keep it in the UK so other variable dont impact your result. eg currency, economic cycle, natural resources, and a whole host of other things

so you believe the UK has different laws of ecomoics to the rest of the world.

no I just dont think you or I are capable of trying to measure one variable in a hundred variable system so keep it in the uk to try and minimize the variables. You can do the same for France or Germany too if you wish but it makes no sense looking at UK towns v say German Towns

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

posh*spice wrote: »

Have you been to Japan? It's lovely.

Frequently.

We have friends that live there.

And just as people here visit Spain or Italy or Greece and note how "lovely" it is on holiday whilst being blissfully unaware of the crisis facing the country - so it goes for the ignorance of people who visit Japan and note how nice it all seems....

My point is.. Facts and figures sre just that ...

Yes...

Just those pesky 'Experts' telling you truths you don't want to hear.

Never mind then.

cells

LHW99 wrote: »

This is possibly the major problem with large scale immigration.
30 years sounds a long time, but it passes very quickly in the general scheme of things, meaning the country would need to continuously raise the migration levels to cope, using the free movement model.
Better would be the Japanese idea of issuing foreign nationals with permts to work, so that labour is available when needed, and taxes are received, but there is not the same long term commitment that everyone who arrives could become permanently resident.

30 years in this day and age is a whole economic and technological lifetime.
Plus its not 30 years of positive and then negative. Its 30 years of very high positive contributions followed by a neutral (similar) take from the tax base. Overall they still contribute more than the locals as they dont have the education and early years spending on them

Plus there are other benefits in the form of infrastructure. More people means higher utilization of spare capacity and the introduction of very low marginal cost upgrades. eg the UK will transition to digital signalling on all its railways in time. So instead of double the population needing double the train lines it would be double the population needing a little bit of software and a mobile phone on a train to double capacity on the line.

Thrugelmir

posh*spice wrote: »

Have you been to Japan? It's lovely.

My point is.. Facts and figures sre just that ...

People never learn from history. As the old investment adage goes, people always believe that

"This time is different".

Central banks are desperately trying to avoid a Japanese style stagnation. Be difficult given that the Western world is facing the same challenges. Just a decade or so later.

MobileSaver

indianabones wrote: »

If you take the country as a whole, even excluding Greater London you'll have to agree that the prices are not affordable.
Houses are not affordable for most of us.

I do not agree and neither do the 90,000 people who bought a property in May, the 95,000 people who bought in June and the 100,000 people who bought a property in July this year.

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

No dont make !!!! up. I said keep it in the UK so other variable dont impact your result. eg currency, economic cycle, natural resources, and a whole host of other things



no I just dont think you or I are capable of trying to measure one variable in a hundred variable system so keep it in the uk to try and minimize the variables. You can do the same for France or Germany too if you wish but it makes no sense looking at UK towns v say German Towns

do you or do you not believe that a world wide country plot of 'population' against 'GDP per capita' will show a broadly linear / smooth continuous rising curve?
The purpose being to proof, your contention that more people = richer per capita

BobQ

Conrad wrote: »

We cant just give up on people, we as a community need to ensure fair incomes for all

I can agree with that but the free market you have voted for will naturally take the course that is most cost effective. If labour is scarce after the immigrants gradually (or quickly) leave UK and the cost of it rises, there will be more incentive to automate jobs that can be automated.

Personally I would like to see wages increase but it will affect the cost of our goods and our exports and incentivise automation. Whether growth will create more jobs than cost savings destroy is anyone's guess. Patrick Minford has suggested Brexit will cause the loss of many maufacturing jobs.

I do wish we'd all put our money where our mouths are - vain compassion signalling and abstract political rants are no match for personal action - support workers, don't shop around for the cheapest all the time

I remember approaching the counter in my virtually empty local bank with a cheque to deposit. The young man said to me "you do realise that you could do this in that machine over there". I replied "I would rather give you the work." He looked at me as if I was a dinosaur and said "it actually saves us work".

BobQ

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Why would the Germans want to hurt their own Companies by imposing tariffs on vehicles.

They wouldn't but what will the other 26 think? It only needs one of them and there is no deal.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

I can agree with that but the free market you have voted for will naturally take the course that is most cost effective. If labour is scarce after the immigrants gradually (or quickly) leave UK and the cost of it rises, there will be more incentive to automate jobs that can be automated.

Personally I would like to see wages increase but it will affect the cost of our goods and our exports and incentivise automation. Whether growth will create more jobs than cost savings destroy is anyone's guess. Patrick Minford has suggested Brexit will cause the loss of many maufacturing jobs.




I remember approaching the counter in my virtually empty local bank with a cheque to deposit. The young man said to me "you do realise that you could do this in that machine over there". I replied "I would rather give you the work." He looked at me as if I was a dinosaur and said "it actually saves us work".

are you seriously saying you would prefer the UK to have
-no tractors or farm machinery, no crop picking machines etc
-no robots in car factories
-no computers running banking system
-no automation of railway signaling
-no science applied to food technology
-no medicines or antibiotics
-no computorise mediacl diognose machines
-no MRI / xray scanners
-no internet
-no online shopping
-no Tv (what ws wrong with the music hall)

you would love all these to go, so we can all work on the land

you are even more loonie that the Corbynites