If we vote for Brexit what happens

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

how much should we increase income tax rates by, to fund the extra infrastructure

more migrants allow income taxes to be lower even when you take into account additional infrastructure. As ive noted before my local overground train station use is up 20x in the decade. Its per capita cost is clearly much much lower 5-10% of what it was.

michaels

cells wrote: »

more migrants allow income taxes to be lower even when you take into account additional infrastructure. As ive noted before my local overground train station use is up 20x in the decade. Its per capita cost is clearly much much lower 5-10% of what it was.

But then again it will be wearing out 20x quicker and perhaps they have had to add more ticket windows, barriers and barrier assistants or you will have to spend more time in buying your ticket and waiting to get on and off the platforms. No doubt you will count the extra employees as more GDP but not subtract the extra waiting time impacting quality of life.

whatmichaelsays

CLAPTON wrote: »

so
you haven't actually heard that 1000s of times about immigrant

Seems like a bizzare point to fixate on. Clearly not one for a spot of exaggeration I see.

CLAPTON wrote: »

you don't believe that 1/3 of GP will retire by 2020

I didn't say that. What I will say is that I respect the BMA survey that came to that conclusion, and I've not seen any convincing evidence to refute either the survey, or the trend that it suggests - you certainly haven't provided any. Ultimately, that's what I base my beliefs on.

CLAPTON wrote: »

and the figures for the shortfall in training places is UP TO 40% in SOME places

I'm not massively sure what point you're trying to make. Having just some areas with such a shortfal is a significant issue, would you not agree? And the fact that there is a shortfall in the number of medical students choosing to pursue General Practice is, in my opinion, a much bigger issue than any percieved pressures caused by migration.

CLAPTON wrote: »

and you haven't a view about how much more income tax you are willing to pay for improving infrastructre

Are you expecting a pounds and pence figure, because you may have me confused with the chancellor?

cells

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

My only point of reference for this which I can count on as being conclusive is the warehouse attached to our operation.

Importing Poles, Bulgarians, Romanians, etc.. has pushed out our UK workers, not moved them up.

imagine a pyramid of jobs with low skill low pay on the bottom and high skill high pay on the top. When the population increases, be it migrants or native population growth the pyramid increases in size. So roughly speaking if the population increase by 1% we need 1% more doctors, 1% more teachers, 1% more everything

If you have a choice in where to put an imported 1 million people in that pyramid would you choose to put them in the bottom quarter or the top quarter? bear in mind the size of the pyramid wont change so whereever you put them the existing people in that part will be displaced to the other parts.

simply if you put them in the top quarter you displace existing people down. if you put them in the bottom quarter you displace existing people up.


or sometimes I put it like this. IF long term unemployment is 1% today, which it is, if long term unemployment was 1% a decade ago, which it was. Then if we imported a lot of low skilled migrants its mathematically certain without any doubt that the locals have been pushed up the pay and skill grades.

mwpt

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Really like this last one.

What truth? What data? This is some businessman expressing and opinion and talking BS whilst doing so. I quote from the article:

"We can employ Chinese engineers, Singaporean engineers, American engineers which we can't do at the moment."

You do critical thinking right? You're a logical rational person? So why are you never critical over BS claims in posts that vaguely align with your view that brexit = good? Is that all that matters?

We can and do hire plenty of engineers from outside of the EU. It might be a pain, but we do it.

cells

michaels wrote: »

But then again it will be wearing out 20x quicker and perhaps they have had to add more ticket windows, barriers and barrier assistants or you will have to spend more time in buying your ticket and waiting to get on and off the platforms. No doubt you will count the extra employees as more GDP but not subtract the extra waiting time impacting quality of life.

no, not at all

the wait time is no more at all. I dont have the time to check but im going to guess that line is actually better too (more trains per day) thus the waits are lower

it went from a 'ghost town' of a station you would do you best to avoid and felt it to be unsecured as there were very few people to one that is much better in almost every way.


Im sure there will be some infrastructure where its been worse over the decade but that one is much much better. im confident in saying its probably gone from a net drain station to a net contributor

cells

infrastructure is a bogus negative point. a larger population will find it easier to build out and utilize infrastructure more productively.

housing is a good point however even in this respect we know that buying a home is cheaper today in most parts of the country than it was 10 years ago before all the mass migration. London is the odd one out but there are good reasons for London to be more expensive than rUK and the large increases in London prices were happening well before the EU migration kicking off in ~2004. There are also positives in housing, if the population is growing it affords the ability for greater and better regeneration.

on any realistic scale you can imagine more people more density will mean cheaper per capita infrastructure costs. the whole case for urbanization is based on the simple fact of cheaper infrastructure per capita.

kabayiri

michaels wrote: »

Good to now that there is not a problem for which the answer is not more Europe.

Puts a lie to the claim that remain was a vote for the status quo:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37359196

Whatever Brexit negotiations deliver in the short term, I think the pattern has been set now.

The core policy makers at the heart of the EU can define a different path without the UK to worry about.

It's clear that people like Juncker have never liked the way in which the UK has been heading. Now he is free to express the views he holds.

I am surprised they exclude PM May from the meetings though. As she herself said, whilst we still pay our EU subs we should still be treated as a full member.

TrickyTree83

mwpt wrote: »

What truth? What data? This is some businessman expressing and opinion and talking BS whilst doing so. I quote from the article:

"We can employ Chinese engineers, Singaporean engineers, American engineers which we can't do at the moment."

You do critical thinking right? You're a logical rational person? So why are you never critical over BS claims in posts that vaguely align with your view that brexit = good? Is that all that matters?

We can and do hire plenty of engineers from outside of the EU. It might be a pain, but we do it.

Because I'm getting tired of fighting.

Supporting those who continue to fight the doom and gloom over leaving the EU is the least I can do.

It gets to you to constantly see contradictions from people, take the Scottish independence movement. Citing that the EU single market is so important for them that they're prepared to leave the UK in order to preserve it.

Yet the UK market is 64% of their trade and the EU is 11%. It's not that important, it's just political manoeuvring and telling lies to the people they are supposed to be looking out for.

And on the point I just made about lies, I suppose I'll get some retort that the big red bus told everyone that we would fund the NHS with the £350 million a week we give to the EU instead. Completely ignoring the reality of what the slogan actually said:



It doesn't say "we'll give £350m a week to the NHS", it just states "lets fund our NHS instead", there is a grammatical difference. If those on the remain side are so learned compared to their vote leave compatriots why are they unable to make this distinction?

Then I'll probably get the retort about how the £350m figure is wrong and deceiving, well the £350m figure would be the gross figure we're on the hook for should the EU have ever decided to stop giving us the rebate and to pull EU discretionary funding into the UK. We were not in control of £350m per week of our own budget, regardless. But apparently it's deceit to say that we were not in control of £350m a week.

The TUC saying workers rights are going to be stripped, constantly feeding the media with headlines that stoke fear into people, and the media lap it up to write headlines, when the truth is that our UK parliament enacts laws which are above the EU minimum and in more cases than not are the trail blazers for workers rights.

It's the same tired old arguments over and over, like some people have been conditioned to think the EU is the only answer, that we cannot forge our own answer.

On the topic of immigration, I couldn't care who comes into the country from where as long as they're not criminals and they have skills that the economy needs. If we are required to participate in the freedom of movement in order to trade with the EU because they take a punitive line then so be it, it's still going to be beneficial to have the freedom to strike up free trade with markets in the rest of the world compared to the EU and customs paperwork won't stop that from being the case.

mayonnaise

Rinoa wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37352312

Interview with James Dyson explaining why we need to be completely out of the single market.

Ah yes, Sir Dyson.

Vacuum cleaner king James Dyson, the high-profile inventor and businessman, is set to reignite the debate surrounding the euro after threatening to expand his operations in Malaysia, rather than at his British factory, if the UK does not join the single currency.

'It's suicidal for the UK not to join the euro.'

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/nov/05/theobserver.observerbusiness4