If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

if the BOE is correct that an exit will increase inflation then all the people already on a fixed income from historic pensions will suffer

in the short term (maybe upto 5 years) share prices could suffer too

Anyone who thinks they might get better annuity rates needs to look at the rates post inflation which might not be all that improved.

If the economy tanks a downturn, again BOE, then taxes will likely go up and services down


So seems michaels is as prone to confirmation bias as the rest of us

presumably, confirmation bias would indicate that if we 'remain' and inflation and interest rates increase, then that will prove that staying was the right policy

globalds

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/inflationreport/2016/feb.pdf[

QUOTE]In December, twelve-month CPI inflation stood at 0.2%, almost 2 percentage points below the inflation target.
Oil prices were more than a third lower, in sterling terms, than a year earlier. Together with muted growth in world
prices, the appreciation of sterling since early 2013 has pulled down on import prices more broadly. Overall, these
factors can explain the vast majority of the deviation of inflation from the target in December, and to an even greater
extent than at the time of the November
Inflation Report
. The remainder of the undershoot reflects subdued domestic
cost growth, particularly unit labour costs.
[/QUOTE]

Carney wants exactly what he is warning us will bring us to our knees.

This is all getting ludicrous.

It has been a good lesson for the average bod in the UK ..To see just how much of a stranglehold on this country none elected and mostly none UK institutions have.

Rinoa

Brexit: The Movie

https://vimeo.com/166378572#embed

padington

When the first poll come through on election night I'm having having every pound I own ready to convert to gold on the press of button if brexit looks inevitable.

Long term Brexit could either be a shrewd idea or a really poor one but what's certain is in the short term it's going to bad news for the pound ( and probably the euro ) before it gets better.

Generali

padington wrote: »

When the first poll come through on election night I'm having having every pound I own ready to convert to gold on the press of button if brexit looks inevitable.

Long term Brexit could either be a shrewd idea or a really poor one but what's certain is in the short term it's going to bad news for the pound ( and probably the euro ) before it gets better.

If that is genuinely your plan and you're not joking you might as well get into gold now. There seems to have been no obvious uplift as a result of the Brexit risk and there could be on an actual Brexit vote.

As a thought, why gold and not T-Bills?

padington

Generali wrote: »

If that is genuinely your plan and you're not joking you might as well get into gold now. There seems to have been no obvious uplift as a result of the Brexit risk and there could be on an actual Brexit vote.

As a thought, why gold and not T-Bills?

Yep serious, Gold will be a 'worry of war' increasing side bet. its a wager but no worse than holding sterling after Brexit.

No Brexit and pound go's up, house prices go's up, UK is open for business, so not trading now.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/brexit-remain-vs-leave-these-are-the-shares-to-buy-and-sell/

Generali

padington wrote: »

Yep serious, Gold will be a 'worry of war' increasing side bet. its a wager but no worse than holding sterling after Brexit.

No Brexit and pound go's up, house prices go's up, UK is open for business, so not trading now.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/brexit-remain-vs-leave-these-are-the-shares-to-buy-and-sell/

You'd definitely want to be out of sterling on a Brexit vote, buy the rumour and sell the fact and all that. The question isn't so much where not to be as where to be.

Regardless of whether a Brexit is positive or negative for the UK or the world, the first instinct of traders and portfolio managers is going to be a dash for safety on a Brexit vote. Rightly or wrongly when you consider the US's ability to pay it's debts long term, that means T-Bills.

Gold is a nonsense as an investment, it's just a hedge against Armageddon really and who wants to survive Armageddon?

I found this amusing BTW:

http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/brexit-the-movie-review-sam-kriss-martin-durkin

mayonnaise

Rinoa wrote: »

Brexit: The Movie

https://vimeo.com/166378572#embed

I'll pass and wait for the sequel... Brexit: The Aftermath
Always liked a good disaster movie.

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

I'll pass and wait for the sequel... Brexit: The Aftermath
Always liked a good disaster movie.

most disaster movies have happy endings

mayonnaise

Why Brexit would be the perfect gift for Vladimir Putin.

An EU without Britain is exactly what the Russian president wants: a weakened institution with less power to confront his assaults on Europe’s borders

Putin’s reasoning is irrefutable. His goal is to weaken the institutions, including Nato and the EU, that could thwart his neo-Soviet ambitions. The Kremlin was in mourning when Scotland narrowly voted to stay in the UK. Putin sees Europe as his enemy and wants his adversaries to be divided, smaller and weaker.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/13/brexit-perfect-gift-vladimir-putin-eu

And suddenly, Cameron's speech on the threat of conflict in Europe post-brexit doesn't sound implausible anymore....