Inflation, Inflation, Inflation...

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

Everyone knew sterling was overvalued except people betting their own money on it?

Exchange speculation is a daily activity not a long term one. Sentiment can change once the real news changes. Brexit happened to be the trigger. Could have been anything. Just a matter of time.

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

Everyone knew sterling was overvalued except people betting their own money on it?

it is an interesting point : why is the market ever surprised/wrong?

during the asian financial crisis of 1997-8 why were the experts surprised
during 93-97 debt to GDP for the asian tigers increased for 100% to over 160%

why do the markets still support the lunacy of the euro economies?

but, of course, people aren't, on the whole, betting with their own money

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Exchange speculation is a daily activity not a long term one. Sentiment can change once the real news changes. Brexit happened to be the trigger. Could have been anything. Just a matter of time.

So there's never a correct value for sterling?

What if sterling has plummeted because we've made a godawful decision and falling imports are a happy by-product?

We've run a trade deficit since about the mid-eighties. It wasn't a secret. The idea that the trade deficit came into sharp focus on the 24th June fails the sniff test - it smells of post event rationalisation.

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

S
We've run a trade deficit since about the mid-eighties. It wasn't a secret. The idea that the trade deficit came into sharp focus on the 24th June fails the sniff test - it smells of post event rationalisation.

whilst I know it unlikely but maybe the markets actually believed Cameron Osborne, Carney, IMF, Obama, World Bank, EU, etc etc etc and are now disappointed that the demand boost the WW3 would have created, has not occurred.

sabretoothtigger

Speculation leads the price in directions the fundamentals cant support. The lower the interest rates of lending currencies, the more allowable the imbalances before money is recalled I guess.

Some of that is taking money from Japan or wherever and investing it elsewhere, if the venture pays off more then the weakness of Yen then its a profitable arbitrage. Its not always predictable.

Yen often swings upwards quite suddenly as money is recalled on market fears but its a good guess that eventually Yen will end up as zero worth and be replaced or can the bank always stop that happening. Doesnt that rely on BOJ assets and they dont have enough to back all notes promised against them, same for the FED ? I dont know, its so entwined with politics and control of populations by those governments. Greece might be a good demonstration of push and force between the two

wotsthat

October petrol & diesel prices highest for the year.

https://www.petrolprices.com/the-price-of-fuel.html

globalds

wotsthat wrote: »

October petrol & diesel prices highest for the year.

https://www.petrolprices.com/the-price-of-fuel.html

Another price war coming ?

http://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/asda-cut-fuel-110-7p-for-unleaded-112-7p-for-diesel-2546398

michaels

Inflation continues to soar.....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37986365

...oops

A_Medium_Size_Jock

michaels wrote: »

Inflation continues to soar.....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37986365

...oops

Ha ha ha ............... from your link:

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) slipped to 0.9%, from 1% in September, the Office for National Statistics said.

Of course it's after the headline of inflation falling to 0.9% that you get the "but but but"'s from those warning that inflation will rise.
As indeed it may.
But it hasn't yet.

Rinoa

BBC Editorial Meeting Minutes 15th Novermber 2016


Today Editor: The inflation figures are out today...we need to go big on the threat to people's personal finances as inflation takes off and rockets ahead. Get Blanchflower on, and McDonnell. We need to tell the story about government failure; 2% Inflation target likely to be broken, more benefit claimants in poverty, more expensive Marmite.


Today 'gopher': The figures are out. Inflation has come down.


Today Editor: We need to go big of the threat to people's finances as inflations tumbles. Get Blanchflower on, and McDonnell. We need to tell the story about government failure; 2% Inflation target not met, pensions not going up, saving interest going down.